Learning Experiences

P&F hi/lo said to get out of SMN, but the 'close only' says to hold on unless it drops to 30-31. Three month or greater regular chart shows that I should stick it out as the 50 and 75 EMA are acting as support. The 250 EMA is acting as resistance at 39.44.

I had been looking to exit at 39 with an eye for the price to go higher. Now I question myself.

Same with C. Both P&Fs and 3 month or greater regular chart show it going down. But it is zipping up.

I suspect that until the credit crunch works itself out the banks will move real odd. I think I'll not touch them again for a long while.

Weight range: 265-268

I started experimenting with various herbs looking to start making skin care and first aid lotions/balms (my wife tells me that they sell well). In researching I found several herbs that could make an energy drink. That energy drink was a success but with one of the herbs, eleuthero, it was suggested that four weeks on and two off was best.

Last week I started the two weeks off. I suspect that is why my weight loss slowed. That and I experimented with ginger and I found it had a side effect of stimulating appetite a *great* deal.

Hopefully things will be getting back on track here.

Weight range: 266-268.5

Hmm

Took a 1/5 holding of MAT.

Wondering about GDX and GLD.

GLD doesn't run close to GDX and has no dividend. Which has me leaning towards GDX more.

At this point I'm thinking of both GDX and GLD to make a 1/5 holding with 1/3 of that holding being GLD. I'll get those in line once GDX and GLD find their bottoms

Entered C $10 September put.

USO - isn't close to target. I wonder if that is due to IYE, DIG, and DUG being focused on oil/gas companies as opposed to oil specifically.

DIG - was six cents off target. Close enough for me with regards to my DUG position. Looking at the "close only" p&f chart, I think the high was 39.61. Offset DUG at $35.85 for a $6.02 profit.

IYE - is a slower mover but it looks like it may have hit bottom.

IYF - dropped below $70

SKF - hit $130

Would do SKF options but the realistic positions are much too spendy. So I went with the Citigroup put.

Not at all sure what to think about SMN.

===================

And DUG hits near $38 today (Thursday).

>.<

Sold WM

Sold at $4.33 so a 50 cent profit.

Was not focused on the short term and missed the boat both times it came near $6.

I was of an opinion that things were on a real reversal. It seemed early but I bought into what the talking heads were saying.

Now I suspect that oil and the financials will bounce around a bit and then the the bears will have their way.

I'm watching USO, DIG, IYE, DUG, IYF, and SKF for signs of a reversal.

Maybe --

USO: 75-85
DIG: Perhaps a move to 84
IYE: Not sure about this one -- maybe 45
IYF: Hmm... short term - if it drops to 70.. longer - if it goes up.. say around 78.. look for the reverse
SKF: 126-128

Regarding options -- I need to figure out how far out I should buy. Current seems too risky unless I'm aiming for a few cents or am willing to pay through the nose for the options.

Seems to me that the risk/reward ratio is too skewed on expensive fast movers.


Hmmmm

"The Ultrashort Financials (SKF) may be an option as the stock approaches $100. Sell-stops can be set below that level."

=====

Closed out the GM and SKF options. Approximately 80% loss

Weight range

266.5 - 369.5

It is looking like I set my time horizon too early on my options.

SKF was a pure bet and I'm not going to be too sad if I don't make it.

GM I think will go below $7.50, but I'm now thinking that won't happen before September or October.

Ehh, live and learn.

I did hit 267 though.

DUG and SMN indicate offset on the 5 day charts but hold on the P&F charts.

=\

P&F charts have the edge over the 5 days charts, so I'll hold.

Weight range

269.5 - 272.5

Seems I broke into the 260s early.

Yay?

Entered GM Aug 7.50 put