Learning Experiences

P&F hi/lo said to get out of SMN, but the 'close only' says to hold on unless it drops to 30-31. Three month or greater regular chart shows that I should stick it out as the 50 and 75 EMA are acting as support. The 250 EMA is acting as resistance at 39.44.

I had been looking to exit at 39 with an eye for the price to go higher. Now I question myself.

Same with C. Both P&Fs and 3 month or greater regular chart show it going down. But it is zipping up.

I suspect that until the credit crunch works itself out the banks will move real odd. I think I'll not touch them again for a long while.

Weight range: 265-268

I started experimenting with various herbs looking to start making skin care and first aid lotions/balms (my wife tells me that they sell well). In researching I found several herbs that could make an energy drink. That energy drink was a success but with one of the herbs, eleuthero, it was suggested that four weeks on and two off was best.

Last week I started the two weeks off. I suspect that is why my weight loss slowed. That and I experimented with ginger and I found it had a side effect of stimulating appetite a *great* deal.

Hopefully things will be getting back on track here.

Weight range: 266-268.5

Hmm

Took a 1/5 holding of MAT.

Wondering about GDX and GLD.

GLD doesn't run close to GDX and has no dividend. Which has me leaning towards GDX more.

At this point I'm thinking of both GDX and GLD to make a 1/5 holding with 1/3 of that holding being GLD. I'll get those in line once GDX and GLD find their bottoms

Entered C $10 September put.

USO - isn't close to target. I wonder if that is due to IYE, DIG, and DUG being focused on oil/gas companies as opposed to oil specifically.

DIG - was six cents off target. Close enough for me with regards to my DUG position. Looking at the "close only" p&f chart, I think the high was 39.61. Offset DUG at $35.85 for a $6.02 profit.

IYE - is a slower mover but it looks like it may have hit bottom.

IYF - dropped below $70

SKF - hit $130

Would do SKF options but the realistic positions are much too spendy. So I went with the Citigroup put.

Not at all sure what to think about SMN.

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And DUG hits near $38 today (Thursday).

>.<

Sold WM

Sold at $4.33 so a 50 cent profit.

Was not focused on the short term and missed the boat both times it came near $6.

I was of an opinion that things were on a real reversal. It seemed early but I bought into what the talking heads were saying.

Now I suspect that oil and the financials will bounce around a bit and then the the bears will have their way.

I'm watching USO, DIG, IYE, DUG, IYF, and SKF for signs of a reversal.

Maybe --

USO: 75-85
DIG: Perhaps a move to 84
IYE: Not sure about this one -- maybe 45
IYF: Hmm... short term - if it drops to 70.. longer - if it goes up.. say around 78.. look for the reverse
SKF: 126-128

Regarding options -- I need to figure out how far out I should buy. Current seems too risky unless I'm aiming for a few cents or am willing to pay through the nose for the options.

Seems to me that the risk/reward ratio is too skewed on expensive fast movers.


Hmmmm

"The Ultrashort Financials (SKF) may be an option as the stock approaches $100. Sell-stops can be set below that level."

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Closed out the GM and SKF options. Approximately 80% loss

Weight range

266.5 - 369.5

It is looking like I set my time horizon too early on my options.

SKF was a pure bet and I'm not going to be too sad if I don't make it.

GM I think will go below $7.50, but I'm now thinking that won't happen before September or October.

Ehh, live and learn.

I did hit 267 though.

DUG and SMN indicate offset on the 5 day charts but hold on the P&F charts.

=\

P&F charts have the edge over the 5 days charts, so I'll hold.

Weight range

269.5 - 272.5

Seems I broke into the 260s early.

Yay?

Entered GM Aug 7.50 put

Forgot to mention that I made a small bet on WM at $3.83

Not sure what to think with DUG and SMN. Short term looks down and long term up. I may be setting myself up for a loss but I'll hold on for a bit more.

I want to see PCU reverse $3 before I think it has bottomed. But I think the bottom is near.

MAT and DOW are generally slow movers so it might be a while before they hit bottom.

I'm getting mixed signals on GDX. I think it will move lower but it is acting like it wants to reverse now.

Pure bet puts on SKF $85 Aug are still iffy, but looking ok. SKFTG briefly jumped to 50 cents before dropping to 40 cents. Open interest is up 100.

WM is moving up nicely. Which makes me wonder about SKF's bounces. IYF is showing the drops that are causing SKF's bounces but I'm not sure what is pulling on IYF. WM, WB, and BAC are all up.

Dunno

Made a pure bet of a few Aug SKF $85 puts. Should see that price in 3-6 days if it is gonna move that way.

Thinking of the following:

Moving both accounts to 3/5ths high div paying positions, 1/5 into GLD, and 1/5 into riskier plays.

Perhaps set the sharebuilder drips on the divs and gld.

Weight range this week

271.5 - 273

Seems the range is shrinking.

In my geekdom, I've created daily and weekly charts. Weekly chart indicates I'll not see the 260s until 7th

Things to keep my eye on for dividends

DOW
MAT
GDX
PCU

PCU and MAT might be close to a bottom.

GDX isn't close. I noticed that I bought at the year's high.

=\

Forgot to post.

The week of the 11th with 2500 calories had my weight moving in a range of 274-277.

This irritated me a great deal so I decided on moving down to 8x body weight in calories. I'm planning on dropping 100 calories a week until I get there.

My bodyweight range on 2400 calories this week has been 274-278 and an average of one pound less than last week.

Entered SMN

Entered SMN at $35.77

I would wait for a pullback but many of these short etfs just skyrocket.

Bought DUG today

DUG hit $30 today.

I bought at $29.83.

Prolly jumped the gun on that. Might drop to $27 before starting up.

Found a cool website

"Name That Plant!"

They were the ones that identified the pokeweed.

Gonna ask them about a weed that has been troubling me since I moved here.





Broadleaf poison just browns the leaves. I've tried removing them by hand and if I miss any of the root it comes back very quickly. It spreads so quickly that by the time I move onto a new area to clear, it is coming back in force.

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Seems it is violet and they appear to be a bad pest.

They like acid soil and with all the trees around, they have it. Lime over time should help.

For now? Not sure. I'm hearing good things about weed torches.

IYE broke under $146

Thats a signal to ditch. Trying to determine if I should try to sell a bounce or to get out now.

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Sold at just under $149 for a 51.3% gain.

Trying to determine if this is just a pull back or a reversal. I don't see any signs for a true reversal.

I may place a bet on DUG and hop back to IYE after it is done with its pullback.