From zerohedge:
"And if you want to be really scared, here is the comparable representation for the DJIA in ounces of gold. It cost about 30 ounces to buy the 10,000 Dow last time. Now it costs less than 10."
And from the comments:
"When it takes about 3 ounces of gold to buy the Dow, I will start selling my gold. I have no idea if that means Dow 15,000, and gold $5000, or Dow 6000 and gold $2000."
Interesting that.
Custom Search
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Sunday, October 04, 2009
Sunday, September 13, 2009
A little excitement
Got stung twice by a yellow jacket while clearing fallen sticks (once through my jeans...absolutely no protection from them) but I'm considering myself very lucky. After I was nearly done mowing I found that there was a nest right where I was stung.
A couple stings are far better than 70 or so.
Looking into this and this to deal with the nest. True it is near the end of the year and the winter will kill them off but that nest is very near the house.
Heh. My excitement was magnified due to the fact I've never been stung by a wasp and that my allergies went insane in 2005. But nothing came of it other than a little localized swelling.
A couple stings are far better than 70 or so.
Looking into this and this to deal with the nest. True it is near the end of the year and the winter will kill them off but that nest is very near the house.
Heh. My excitement was magnified due to the fact I've never been stung by a wasp and that my allergies went insane in 2005. But nothing came of it other than a little localized swelling.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Thoughts on stones
I've been working stones off and on for a while now. Trying this and that.
A few months ago I tried a Crystalite plated flexible lap in 400 grit and then later I picked up a 600 and 1800 grit Crystalite resin flexible laps. The 400 grit lap is astoundingly aggressive while the others are slow they aren't mind numbingly so. The 400 grit lap also improved the final shine significantly with the loose grit I had been using as did the 600 and 1800 laps.
I'm not sure why this wasn't clear to me before but loose grit, even if coarser, is very non-aggressive. I'd say it is better for polishing but very coarse grit could put scratches in the material.
These laps seem to not be very popular compared to the diamond resin wheels. I will probably replace the 600 and 1800 laps with wheels when they wear out as they seem to have a much shorter lifespan than the plated lap.
Also I've given in and bought a 80 grit diamond wheel. The 100 grit carbide wheel was driving me nuts. First it was slow enough that my mind would eventually wander off and I made stupid mistakes. Second, as it wears down and gets smaller it gets even slower. When it started to take near 2 hours to rough out agates I had enough. Well, let me tell you, that 80 grit wheel is no joke. I roughed out an agate the other day in about 25 minutes. It blasts though quartz. I'm well pleased. A good and bad thing is that it gouges (as coarser diamond grits do). This is good because those gouges tell me exactly where to apply the 220 wheel. The bad thing is I need to leave more work for the 220 wheel because not only does it gouge it also chips, so I can't get too close to the finished size on that wheel.
I had been of the opinion that I'd stick with the 220 grit wheel in carbide as I use it for a pretty short step. But two things have changed my mind 1) I have to leave more work for this wheel and carbide is slow. and 2) I really like having the gouges to show me where I need to work. The carbide wheels leave no scratches and if I've done my job well, I'll not see many facets when I move onto the 400 grit lap. Well, it isn't entirely true that the carbide wheels leave no scratches. They leave scratches that you won't see until the 600, or more often, 1800 grit step.
I don't enjoy repeating steps that I thought done.
Also re-remembered tonight that agates really like a round with tripoli after the 1800 grit diamond. Maybe put a pic up if I'm not too lazy tomorrow.
=====================
Alright this is much later than "tomorrow" but I like this stone a bit more than the one I had in mind.
Wish I put a few more lamps in place. There is some very nice depth to that stone. Filled with black and white shapes swimming around and mixing with a semitransparent coffee colored chalcedony.
I like how my hand as well as the camera shows up in the stone's gloss. As well as the ridges of the paper towel light filters on my photo box.
Really should have gotten more light on it.
=\
A few months ago I tried a Crystalite plated flexible lap in 400 grit and then later I picked up a 600 and 1800 grit Crystalite resin flexible laps. The 400 grit lap is astoundingly aggressive while the others are slow they aren't mind numbingly so. The 400 grit lap also improved the final shine significantly with the loose grit I had been using as did the 600 and 1800 laps.
I'm not sure why this wasn't clear to me before but loose grit, even if coarser, is very non-aggressive. I'd say it is better for polishing but very coarse grit could put scratches in the material.
These laps seem to not be very popular compared to the diamond resin wheels. I will probably replace the 600 and 1800 laps with wheels when they wear out as they seem to have a much shorter lifespan than the plated lap.
Also I've given in and bought a 80 grit diamond wheel. The 100 grit carbide wheel was driving me nuts. First it was slow enough that my mind would eventually wander off and I made stupid mistakes. Second, as it wears down and gets smaller it gets even slower. When it started to take near 2 hours to rough out agates I had enough. Well, let me tell you, that 80 grit wheel is no joke. I roughed out an agate the other day in about 25 minutes. It blasts though quartz. I'm well pleased. A good and bad thing is that it gouges (as coarser diamond grits do). This is good because those gouges tell me exactly where to apply the 220 wheel. The bad thing is I need to leave more work for the 220 wheel because not only does it gouge it also chips, so I can't get too close to the finished size on that wheel.
I had been of the opinion that I'd stick with the 220 grit wheel in carbide as I use it for a pretty short step. But two things have changed my mind 1) I have to leave more work for this wheel and carbide is slow. and 2) I really like having the gouges to show me where I need to work. The carbide wheels leave no scratches and if I've done my job well, I'll not see many facets when I move onto the 400 grit lap. Well, it isn't entirely true that the carbide wheels leave no scratches. They leave scratches that you won't see until the 600, or more often, 1800 grit step.
I don't enjoy repeating steps that I thought done.
Also re-remembered tonight that agates really like a round with tripoli after the 1800 grit diamond. Maybe put a pic up if I'm not too lazy tomorrow.
=====================
Alright this is much later than "tomorrow" but I like this stone a bit more than the one I had in mind.
Wish I put a few more lamps in place. There is some very nice depth to that stone. Filled with black and white shapes swimming around and mixing with a semitransparent coffee colored chalcedony.
I like how my hand as well as the camera shows up in the stone's gloss. As well as the ridges of the paper towel light filters on my photo box.
Really should have gotten more light on it.
=\
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Playing with milk
I've been making my own yogurt for a while now. I follow this recipe and use Stonyfield Farm's yogurt for starter (it makes for a slightly sweet and very creamy yogurt). I then mix in whatever berries are in season along with a bit of the jam my wife makes. That and an egg makes for a very nice breakfast.
I've also made this Vietnamese yogurt following the method outlined in the link above and again with Stonyfield Farm's yogurt for starter.Very nice but too many calories for someone on a diet.
I tried my hand at making mozzarella using this recipe. It ended up effectively being ricotta. I had thought that the failure came from the recipe. In that the prof is big into self sufficiency and has his own dairy animals and has learned exactly how acidic his buttermilk will make his curds. I then found this which more importantly brought me to this. What she is describing is what happened to me. So I took her advice and reconstituted a gallon of non-fat dried milk and replaced a pint of it with light cream. I then followed her mozzarella recipe this evening with the addition of the prof's brine bath. It behaved as described and it smelled like cheese when it was warm. I'll be trying some tomorrow afternoon.
----
I've tried the cheese and I'm pleased. It tastes like string cheese but not as dry and rubbery. The outside is very salty from the brine. I expect that to be absorbed into the cheese in the next couple days. I'm a little worried it will be a bit too salty but it's too early to tell. I soaked it about 18 hours so I'll soak it less if it is too salty.
After I made it I learned about lipase and how it will make it taste more like Italian cheese. Might play with that next.
Update: A few days later and the salt had absorbed into the cheese. Not at all salty. It does melt when used in cooking but not completely when added at the end. I think this was due to me not working the cheese until all the whey was out of it. I was concerned that it would become too rubbery (too much like string cheese) if worked too much. I suspect it would've melt if added to the dish earlier.
End result: More flavorful than string cheese but it didn't melt as easily. I'm not sure if working it more would kill the flavor.
I've also made this Vietnamese yogurt following the method outlined in the link above and again with Stonyfield Farm's yogurt for starter.Very nice but too many calories for someone on a diet.
I tried my hand at making mozzarella using this recipe. It ended up effectively being ricotta. I had thought that the failure came from the recipe. In that the prof is big into self sufficiency and has his own dairy animals and has learned exactly how acidic his buttermilk will make his curds. I then found this which more importantly brought me to this. What she is describing is what happened to me. So I took her advice and reconstituted a gallon of non-fat dried milk and replaced a pint of it with light cream. I then followed her mozzarella recipe this evening with the addition of the prof's brine bath. It behaved as described and it smelled like cheese when it was warm. I'll be trying some tomorrow afternoon.
----
I've tried the cheese and I'm pleased. It tastes like string cheese but not as dry and rubbery. The outside is very salty from the brine. I expect that to be absorbed into the cheese in the next couple days. I'm a little worried it will be a bit too salty but it's too early to tell. I soaked it about 18 hours so I'll soak it less if it is too salty.
After I made it I learned about lipase and how it will make it taste more like Italian cheese. Might play with that next.
Update: A few days later and the salt had absorbed into the cheese. Not at all salty. It does melt when used in cooking but not completely when added at the end. I think this was due to me not working the cheese until all the whey was out of it. I was concerned that it would become too rubbery (too much like string cheese) if worked too much. I suspect it would've melt if added to the dish earlier.
End result: More flavorful than string cheese but it didn't melt as easily. I'm not sure if working it more would kill the flavor.
Thursday, July 09, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Friday, March 20, 2009
Thursday, March 05, 2009
Sunday, February 08, 2009
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Interesting
I've been very careful with my trading for quite a while now. Mainly because the market didn't make sense.
One week things were deflationary and the next inflationary. Now those cycles seem to be daily.
I've been pretty confused over that until I read this.
Seems the Feds have been trying very hard to inflate things for a while now. But any movement in that direction lives only so long as it takes the large trading houses to sell off during the rally.
So how much more before the real bottom is in? When all the trading houses have stopped selling in an effort to offset trades and/or meet margin requirements? I'm not at all sure.
I did see gold rally this week. Enough to make me think that maybe the inflation will start to hit (and I'll finally have some surer footing to make trades), but in my gut I'm thinking not yet. If I were braver I'd buy a couple mini gold or silver contracts and take delivery. Seems gold and silver contracts are much lower than the physical metal. But those 1K oz bars would have to be made into coins or small bars. I have no idea how much of a cut that would take out of the deal.
One week things were deflationary and the next inflationary. Now those cycles seem to be daily.
I've been pretty confused over that until I read this.
Seems the Feds have been trying very hard to inflate things for a while now. But any movement in that direction lives only so long as it takes the large trading houses to sell off during the rally.
So how much more before the real bottom is in? When all the trading houses have stopped selling in an effort to offset trades and/or meet margin requirements? I'm not at all sure.
I did see gold rally this week. Enough to make me think that maybe the inflation will start to hit (and I'll finally have some surer footing to make trades), but in my gut I'm thinking not yet. If I were braver I'd buy a couple mini gold or silver contracts and take delivery. Seems gold and silver contracts are much lower than the physical metal. But those 1K oz bars would have to be made into coins or small bars. I have no idea how much of a cut that would take out of the deal.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
More Truth
Truth
=====
In a funk for a while now.
=\
Touched 259 twice and then started bouncing in the 260s again
=\
=====
In a funk for a while now.
=\
Touched 259 twice and then started bouncing in the 260s again
=\
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Hmm
TED spread
Shows how willing the banks are to loan to one another.
Click on the five year button to get a better idea of where things stand. Before May of last year it was rarely above 0.5.
9/07 - 3/08 it hit 2 three times.
And then in 9/08 it hit 3 and now has hit 4.5.
If things continue in this fashion it will drop to 4 again before heading north of 5.
Or this could be a huge peak and it will drop just as dramatically.
But all this might be moot. If all western banks can borrow from the government why should they make loans to each other?
Shows how willing the banks are to loan to one another.
Click on the five year button to get a better idea of where things stand. Before May of last year it was rarely above 0.5.
9/07 - 3/08 it hit 2 three times.
And then in 9/08 it hit 3 and now has hit 4.5.
If things continue in this fashion it will drop to 4 again before heading north of 5.
Or this could be a huge peak and it will drop just as dramatically.
But all this might be moot. If all western banks can borrow from the government why should they make loans to each other?
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Changed my P&F charts a bit
Switched to "close only" view.
In looking back on my last SMN trade, I would not have exited if I was following the close only chart.
Looking at the hi/lo chart, I think I would have exited three different times before the current run.
With the close only chart, I may have exited in the 40s but I generally want a two box movement past the last low or high depending on direction that I'm going.
In looking back on my last SMN trade, I would not have exited if I was following the close only chart.
Looking at the hi/lo chart, I think I would have exited three different times before the current run.
With the close only chart, I may have exited in the 40s but I generally want a two box movement past the last low or high depending on direction that I'm going.
Something I wrote to a friend
And thought I might just post here as well.
This was in response to speculation that the government will start examining what happened and determining who's to blame.
===========
I'm not so sure the heat has passed.
Also, here are more details on how this bailout is not only for Wall Street, but for the world.
"Larry Kudlow:
Let me just ask you one question. I think you are referring to foreign banks headquartered in the United States. I do not see how foreign investors get bailed out.
Rep. Brad Sherman:
Larry you have to read the bill. It's very clear. The Bank of Shanghai can transfer all of its toxic assets to the Bank of Shanghai of Los Angeles which can then sell them the next day to the Treasury. I had a provision to say if it wasn't owned by an American entity even a subsidiary, but at least an entity in the US, the Treasury can't buy it. It was rejected.
The bill is very clear. Assets now held in China and London can be sold to US entities on Monday and then sold to the Treasury on Tuesday. Paulson has made it clear he will recommend a veto of any bill that contained a clear provision that said if Americans did not own the asset on September 20th that it can't be sold to the Treasury.
Hundreds of billions of dollars are going to bail out foreign investors. They know it, they demanded it and the bill has been carefully written to make sure that can happen."
What the executive branch started (FED and Treasury - Repub controlled) was knocked down by the legislative branch (Dem controlled) the first time. But only because of a large and loud grassroots roar. The Senate (legislative - D) tacked on all sorts of pork (a tax subsidy for wooden arrow makers? sheesh). There are claims that there are new provisions for accountability. But from my reading, the audit board has no teeth. They can't stop anything.
I like Palin and I think she'll come along nicely. My problem with her is on the topic of immigration. I know McCain is for open boarders and I know AK has sanctuary cities. I have no problem with skilled immigrants that 1) come here legally and 2) seek high US salaries (meaning they don't lowball Americans).
At this point is seems to me both parties support this kind of thing.
It is bad enough that we have so many idle hands due to cheap, illegal low-end labor. But now that model is moving up into "professional" employment.
Going back to gold/silver -- I was speaking with my wife about going ahead and starting to buy physical metal as an insurance policy. What my concern was/is that while gold's value stays the same, the dollar moves wildly. Meaning, what I buy now may be worth $30/oz in ten years and $1500/oz in twenty. On thinking about it some more, if physical metal is insurance and as it moves in cycles, I shouldn't buy if I'm anywhere near the peak. So I hunted around for some long term price graphs --
gold -
Gold 1975 to present.
Gold 1985 to present.
Gold 1995 to present.
Gold 2000 to present.
silver -
Silver 1985 to present.
Silver 1995 to present.
Silver 2000 to present.
Those tell me two things -
1) The metals have peaked
2) The metals show the nature of the economy before it is felt
#1 assumes one of two things 1) that at some point soon interest rates will be hiked and the dollar made strong or 2) like oil, there is demand destruction because people don't have the money to buy.
#2 Note the 1980 gold peak. I was pretty young but I remember things being pretty tight in the early 80s. I remember in the late 80s people decrying the rise of the consumer nation. That tends to happen when only a small potion of the population gets to play. Note that by the 90s most of those types of complaints disappeared when every single household started to get all the shiny baubles. By the late 90s everyone was tossing around money. What I'm getting at here is that I think that the next 2-4 years might be tight.
1976 bottom was around $100/oz. That climbed to a 1979 peak of $750/oz (750%) and then dropped to $350/oz (47%) low in 81. Final low in 99 at $250/oz (72% off 350/oz and 34% off peak).
From that 1999 bottom we've hit 1010/oz (400%). Does that mean it will climb near 1875/oz (750%)? I'm continuing to hold my GLD shares in case it does make a move like that.
I don't know. But I'm not sure it is prudent to buy physical metal now that it has climbed more than half the old peak.
I do know I will be buying physical gold once it hits the bottom of its cycle again. That'll be around 343/oz if 1010/oz was the peak and 637/oz if it gets to 1875/oz.
My thinking is this: if by the time I'm 60 and we're going through this again, my gold will be worth something. Should there be a huge boom going on when I'm 60, I know my girl can make use of the gold I've bought.
Also, looking at the historical silver charts, I can't see any reason to hold physical silver. Perhaps if there is total government collapse it will be needed for day to day money, but I don't see that happening.
I suggest eliminating all debt and getting a good low energy freezer. We've finally found a good price on one and are now starting to stock meat and other spendy type items when they go on sell for bulk purchases. I'd also suggest putting 6-12 months salary into a very liquid savings account of some type, regardless of what tiny return you'll get.
Why? Well, considering that both parties are moving so close together on policies, take a look at the possible ramifications of something Obama wants to pass --
"Biden -"Number two, with regard to bankruptcy now, Gwen, what we should be doing now -- and Barack Obama and I support it -- we should be allowing bankruptcy courts to be able to re-adjust not just the interest rate you're paying on your mortgage to be able to stay in your home, but be able to adjust the principal that you owe, the principal that you owe.""
Why would any bank make any loan to anybody if they could be forced to adjust the principal so that they are losing on the deal? Sensing, and I agree with him, suspects that down payments of 20-30% or more along with crazy high interest rates will be on their way.
Take care.
This was in response to speculation that the government will start examining what happened and determining who's to blame.
===========
I'm not so sure the heat has passed.
Also, here are more details on how this bailout is not only for Wall Street, but for the world.
"Larry Kudlow:
Let me just ask you one question. I think you are referring to foreign banks headquartered in the United States. I do not see how foreign investors get bailed out.
Rep. Brad Sherman:
Larry you have to read the bill. It's very clear. The Bank of Shanghai can transfer all of its toxic assets to the Bank of Shanghai of Los Angeles which can then sell them the next day to the Treasury. I had a provision to say if it wasn't owned by an American entity even a subsidiary, but at least an entity in the US, the Treasury can't buy it. It was rejected.
The bill is very clear. Assets now held in China and London can be sold to US entities on Monday and then sold to the Treasury on Tuesday. Paulson has made it clear he will recommend a veto of any bill that contained a clear provision that said if Americans did not own the asset on September 20th that it can't be sold to the Treasury.
Hundreds of billions of dollars are going to bail out foreign investors. They know it, they demanded it and the bill has been carefully written to make sure that can happen."
What the executive branch started (FED and Treasury - Repub controlled) was knocked down by the legislative branch (Dem controlled) the first time. But only because of a large and loud grassroots roar. The Senate (legislative - D) tacked on all sorts of pork (a tax subsidy for wooden arrow makers? sheesh). There are claims that there are new provisions for accountability. But from my reading, the audit board has no teeth. They can't stop anything.
I like Palin and I think she'll come along nicely. My problem with her is on the topic of immigration. I know McCain is for open boarders and I know AK has sanctuary cities. I have no problem with skilled immigrants that 1) come here legally and 2) seek high US salaries (meaning they don't lowball Americans).
At this point is seems to me both parties support this kind of thing.
It is bad enough that we have so many idle hands due to cheap, illegal low-end labor. But now that model is moving up into "professional" employment.
Going back to gold/silver -- I was speaking with my wife about going ahead and starting to buy physical metal as an insurance policy. What my concern was/is that while gold's value stays the same, the dollar moves wildly. Meaning, what I buy now may be worth $30/oz in ten years and $1500/oz in twenty. On thinking about it some more, if physical metal is insurance and as it moves in cycles, I shouldn't buy if I'm anywhere near the peak. So I hunted around for some long term price graphs --
gold -
Gold 1975 to present.
Gold 1985 to present.
Gold 1995 to present.
Gold 2000 to present.
silver -
Silver 1985 to present.
Silver 1995 to present.
Silver 2000 to present.
Those tell me two things -
1) The metals have peaked
2) The metals show the nature of the economy before it is felt
#1 assumes one of two things 1) that at some point soon interest rates will be hiked and the dollar made strong or 2) like oil, there is demand destruction because people don't have the money to buy.
#2 Note the 1980 gold peak. I was pretty young but I remember things being pretty tight in the early 80s. I remember in the late 80s people decrying the rise of the consumer nation. That tends to happen when only a small potion of the population gets to play. Note that by the 90s most of those types of complaints disappeared when every single household started to get all the shiny baubles. By the late 90s everyone was tossing around money. What I'm getting at here is that I think that the next 2-4 years might be tight.
1976 bottom was around $100/oz. That climbed to a 1979 peak of $750/oz (750%) and then dropped to $350/oz (47%) low in 81. Final low in 99 at $250/oz (72% off 350/oz and 34% off peak).
From that 1999 bottom we've hit 1010/oz (400%). Does that mean it will climb near 1875/oz (750%)? I'm continuing to hold my GLD shares in case it does make a move like that.
I don't know. But I'm not sure it is prudent to buy physical metal now that it has climbed more than half the old peak.
I do know I will be buying physical gold once it hits the bottom of its cycle again. That'll be around 343/oz if 1010/oz was the peak and 637/oz if it gets to 1875/oz.
My thinking is this: if by the time I'm 60 and we're going through this again, my gold will be worth something. Should there be a huge boom going on when I'm 60, I know my girl can make use of the gold I've bought.
Also, looking at the historical silver charts, I can't see any reason to hold physical silver. Perhaps if there is total government collapse it will be needed for day to day money, but I don't see that happening.
I suggest eliminating all debt and getting a good low energy freezer. We've finally found a good price on one and are now starting to stock meat and other spendy type items when they go on sell for bulk purchases. I'd also suggest putting 6-12 months salary into a very liquid savings account of some type, regardless of what tiny return you'll get.
Why? Well, considering that both parties are moving so close together on policies, take a look at the possible ramifications of something Obama wants to pass --
"Biden -"Number two, with regard to bankruptcy now, Gwen, what we should be doing now -- and Barack Obama and I support it -- we should be allowing bankruptcy courts to be able to re-adjust not just the interest rate you're paying on your mortgage to be able to stay in your home, but be able to adjust the principal that you owe, the principal that you owe.""
Why would any bank make any loan to anybody if they could be forced to adjust the principal so that they are losing on the deal? Sensing, and I agree with him, suspects that down payments of 20-30% or more along with crazy high interest rates will be on their way.
Take care.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)