Fixed Markets

Somewhere around 4 years ago my trading started to lose. I did manage to break even that year but I began to doubt what I knew about trading.

Then I read about Comex changing their gold contracts so that it is more difficult to take delivery. Later I read about Democrat Senator Tom Harkin suggesting that private 401k accounts should be confiscated and closed mine out. Then I read about the market rally with no volume. And now the Fed is going to spend $40 billion every month indefinitely.

At this point I think metals and other price dense objects (e.g. high-end hand tools) are best. Along with a large freezer to stock when good prices on bulk meat come around. I'd also suggest looking into your local CSAs.

I'm working on a metal system that involves moving in and out of the big 4 precious metals. This works best with GoldMoney but the argument that you should be able to have it on hand is starting to persuade. My difficulty is determining its success rate over time as a trade can be held for many years.

An example of this is that I expect the both silver and palladium to become very good buys in relation to gold and platinum at some point "soon". I had originally thought they would cheapen quickly like in 2008 but now I wonder if the price relationship will go the other way. In that they would become good buys because both gold and platinum will skyrocket.

Platinum seems very cheap at the moment, but it normally moves with palladium. So it may go lower yet.

 Update 1/5/13 - More on the manipulation

Did Markets Or Manipulations "Save The World" In 2012?

“In general [stock traders are] trained to analyze the economic data, balance sheets and so on. They’re not trained to predict political decisions. These factors have ruled the lives of fund managers in a more significant manner than what used to be over the past 20 or 30 years."

Thoughts

Looks like it's time for my annual posting.

Heh.

How time flies.

Anyhow, I've noticed that nearly anything I've a mind to post has already been written about. Kind of cuts down on the desire to write.

:\

 Still, I think this is a useful mental exercise.

Socket Sets

A while back I picked up a craftsman metric set.

I had two criteria 1) wide socket range and 2) reliable with a lifetime guaranty.

I found out later that Home Depot and Lowe's Home Improvement offered sets with the same lifetime guaranty. What really got me was that Home Depot had a set that was around $10 cheaper but with more sockets.

It seems tool sets are similar to houses. In that you quickly learn how ignorant you are.

So, in the hopes that some random passerby might see this -

When researching a socket set, make one of your criteria to be that all the sockets match the driver.

You see, my craftsman set has a 3/8" driver but only half of the sockets are sized for 3/8". The rest are sized for 1/4" and thus need the included conversion socket. Up until today I thought that just a harmless but stupid choice on the part of craftsman. But today I was taking off the driver's side valve cover and the socket + converter + driver would not fit in space around the lower rear bolt and the shape of the valve cover disallowed a box wrench. So off to the store for a 10mm in 3/8".

Droped calories again

Started taking two tablespoons of flaxseed oil. That has upped my calories by 260 so I've had to drop my calorie intake to 6x body weight.

Still targeting the end of April to be down to 200-205lbs. As I've got it in my head that I want to be able to see my lower abs I may have to drop below 200. At this point I can't see dropping below 180 but I can't be sure.

Calisthenics are progressing slowly but well. Doing push ups with my feet propped up on a 3' box. I still need elastic bands to help with my chin ups. Ab roll outs are a hard one to measure progress on but I'm happy with them. Currently doing two super sets of the following (subsets are done per minute for 30 minutes overall):

5 squats + 5 ab roll outs (minutes 1-5 & 16-20)
5 squats + 5 chins (minutes 6-10 & 21-25)
5 squats + 5 elevated push ups (minutes 11-15 & 26-30)

When I'm doing ab roll outs from my feet (instead of knees), true chins (no bands), and true head stand push ups I'll decide on if I want to combine all three and squats per minute or to work on explosive (i.e. jump) versions of the squats, chins, and push ups.

Interesting thing about the lowered calories is the lowered energy and motivation levels. I think the lowered energy levels negate the ease I should feel from the weight loss. Once I hit my goal body fat percentage and start upping my calories I'll be able to do more (swimming laps and running are two things that come to mind) and that will mean I'll need more calories in order to maintain body weight. At this point I'll need to figure out what milestones will need to be met before I start adding muscle. I hate cardio but with the allergies and asthma I'll need to suck it up and do it if I want to progress. I would think cardio and maintaining strength in the calisthenics will be the deciding factor on when I would stop trying to gain muscle. I was thinking, say, 2x body weight in a squat or deadlift would be a good indicator but I remember when I had OK gym lifts but was pretty weak compared to my body weight.

Gold

Was a twit and held on too long to the GLD and GDX. Sold the GLD at 104 for $13 profit. I'll sit on GDX til it comes round again. Hopefully sometime before 11 years.

As sharebuilder doesn't like DZZ I went with GLL instead.

----

Hmm, ZSL might have been better. Ehh

Satisfaction and Irritation

Well I'm down to 235 and I'm guessing that 10% body fat will put me at 200.

Based on my activity level I'm finding seven times my body weight to be a good weight loss calorie intake.

Why is this irritating? Well, when I moved down here at the end of 2005... before my allergies put me down... when I was weightlifting 4-5 times a week, I was 256 and wore size 36 pants (35 if I could find a pair that had room for my thighs). As of today I could just squeeze into 36 pants.

What does that mean? It means I've lost well over 20 pounds of muscle.

Oh well.

My allergies and exercise induced asthma may not yet allow me to play with the weights but I'm now able to push myself and progress with my calisthenics.

Probably early but

I sold my PCU shares and am now watching DBA for an entry. Even if early a $11.49 profit is plenty nice.

Holding GLD and GDX for now and watching DZZ for hints of a real reversal.

Merry Christmas

Wife received "Smokehouse Ham, Spoon Bread, & Scuppernong Wine" by Joseph E. Dabney which I immediately absconded with.

What a wonderful book. So many memories brought back.

Nearly every time I think my memories of the South of my youth are nothing more than rose tinted nonsense I meet some old timer. They remind me that my memories are true. Just that the white trash appear to have taken over for now.

Anyhow, I made the sweet potato biscuits (pg. 122) for my wife and daughter. Needless to say they were a hit. Just lovely.

Another interesting tidbit on gold

From the Kitco BB (Text in blue is the poster's response):

"Quote:

Originally Posted by showtime What is the odds that c of (ii) ended already at 1101 and we are already in (iii) of {iii} of 3? It could but not my preference Could the mkt be that strong, that the (ii) correction was just 36 hours? hmmm doubt it, it would be healthier for the bull to relax just a bit more, IMHO, DYODD. If you are short would you say you better cover with a stop around 1128 or would you say your opinion would still be stop at 1123 or so? mine is just above 1123. But if you have that kind of risk tolerance, then a short stop above 1128 could still be profitable Where is the highest b of (ii) could go before its no longer valid? I would say that above 1138 would lead to a greater break-out into (iii), proving a very small correction for (ii) did in fact occur. You have said in the past, if the mkt goes over 1135, get long as fast as you can? Is this still your opinion? oh yeah! there is a very prominante multi-year channel line just above us now at 1132, a 1/2%+ ($6.00) breach or 4hr close above this level, would likely indicate that we are into mania, the majority of buyers do not care about technicals, they just want thier gold and want it now, at any price. A pure emotional response to the market, another signature of the 'point of recognition'. My concern on the (iii) of {iii} of 3 is the mkt never lets people get in easy. Its either going to be a big shakeout that will get many longs to exit around 1080- 1100 range or it just simply never pulls back to 1080 to 1100 range as (ii) is already done. My observation also, no more pussy-footing around, wild swings are going to become more common. I get the feeling as well, many mid-term traders are on the sidelines right now, looking for trend confirmation. A big move is very near.

The market is currently producing daily swings of 1-2% and having weekly swings of 3-5%. As the bull progresses further, we may start to see 3-5% daily swings and 8-12% weekly swings. When the gold bull is near toping out, I suspect to see daily swings of 8-12% ($100+)."

Market had a large jump at 2300 GMT to 1125+ and sideways since then.

=====

Hit 1130+ briefly.

I'm pretty happy with copper (pcu) but that low volume makes me think a top is near.

In an update to the linked thread above:

"

Quote:

Originally Posted by neildavis2002 Quad, It looks like POG did in fact climb above 1123 in its opening hours, making another new all time high. Are you looking at this as an extended b wave still? Looking forward to see if the super-bull plays out. Scary times ahead if it does. Looks like Bernanke may have been able to squash the deflationary bug after all. We'll see. Looking forward to your insights. Thanks.

yes I think this is b of (ii) still with c of (ii) down startng soon.

There is a significant pocket of resistance between 1027 and 1033 [Ed. he meant 1127 and 1133], not likely to be taken out on the first try, or even second try, but 3rd time should breach it for sure.

Pog still plenty bullish above 1084.

FYI: EW rules state that waves 2,4,B,X,XX,W,Y,Z,ZZ cannot be 5 wave impulses. They must be 3 wave corrections of some form (A 5 wave sideways triangle is considered a correction, not an impulse). So this move up from friday, so far does not look impulsive to me yet, it looks like a double zig-zag. However, if Pog stays above 1116 and goes to 1130 -1133 before monday is done, then we may have our impulse, so get in quick on the next higher-low, for the possible moon-shot. A fall below 1110 into monday early will kill this view, and suggest a day or two of more corrective behavior, perhaps the wash-out to 108x.

we'll see....

silver, should remain in the triangle presented earlier if POS stays below 17.80, and then correct down with gold into wave C target 16.40 - 16.70. Any move below 16.10 brings much more bearishness.

There is some firm support for crude between 75 and 75.75. I will be looking for a 4 turn bottom."

Interesting quote

From zerohedge:

"And if you want to be really scared, here is the comparable representation for the DJIA in ounces of gold. It cost about 30 ounces to buy the 10,000 Dow last time. Now it costs less than 10."

And from the comments:

"When it takes about 3 ounces of gold to buy the Dow, I will start selling my gold. I have no idea if that means Dow 15,000, and gold $5000, or Dow 6000 and gold $2000."

Interesting that.

Found a very cool site

Instructables

From taxidermy to making a lathe.

How about a desktop CNC mill?

Very cool

A little excitement

Got stung twice by a yellow jacket while clearing fallen sticks (once through my jeans...absolutely no protection from them) but I'm considering myself very lucky. After I was nearly done mowing I found that there was a nest right where I was stung.

A couple stings are far better than 70 or so.

Looking into this and this to deal with the nest. True it is near the end of the year and the winter will kill them off but that nest is very near the house.

Heh. My excitement was magnified due to the fact I've never been stung by a wasp and that my allergies went insane in 2005. But nothing came of it other than a little localized swelling.

Getting the most bang for your buck

Small engine repair/maintenance

Thoughts on stones

I've been working stones off and on for a while now. Trying this and that.

A few months ago I tried a Crystalite plated flexible lap in 400 grit and then later I picked up a 600 and 1800 grit Crystalite resin flexible laps. The 400 grit lap is astoundingly aggressive while the others are slow they aren't mind numbingly so. The 400 grit lap also improved the final shine significantly with the loose grit I had been using as did the 600 and 1800 laps.

I'm not sure why this wasn't clear to me before but loose grit, even if coarser, is very non-aggressive. I'd say it is better for polishing but very coarse grit could put scratches in the material.

These laps seem to not be very popular compared to the diamond resin wheels. I will probably replace the 600 and 1800 laps with wheels when they wear out as they seem to have a much shorter lifespan than the plated lap.

Also I've given in and bought a 80 grit diamond wheel. The 100 grit carbide wheel was driving me nuts. First it was slow enough that my mind would eventually wander off and I made stupid mistakes. Second, as it wears down and gets smaller it gets even slower. When it started to take near 2 hours to rough out agates I had enough. Well, let me tell you, that 80 grit wheel is no joke. I roughed out an agate the other day in about 25 minutes. It blasts though quartz. I'm well pleased. A good and bad thing is that it gouges (as coarser diamond grits do). This is good because those gouges tell me exactly where to apply the 220 wheel. The bad thing is I need to leave more work for the 220 wheel because not only does it gouge it also chips, so I can't get too close to the finished size on that wheel.

I had been of the opinion that I'd stick with the 220 grit wheel in carbide as I use it for a pretty short step. But two things have changed my mind 1) I have to leave more work for this wheel and carbide is slow. and 2) I really like having the gouges to show me where I need to work. The carbide wheels leave no scratches and if I've done my job well, I'll not see many facets when I move onto the 400 grit lap. Well, it isn't entirely true that the carbide wheels leave no scratches. They leave scratches that you won't see until the 600, or more often, 1800 grit step.

I don't enjoy repeating steps that I thought done.

Also re-remembered tonight that agates really like a round with tripoli after the 1800 grit diamond. Maybe put a pic up if I'm not too lazy tomorrow.

=====================

Alright this is much later than "tomorrow" but I like this stone a bit more than the one I had in mind.



Wish I put a few more lamps in place. There is some very nice depth to that stone. Filled with black and white shapes swimming around and mixing with a semitransparent coffee colored chalcedony.

I like how my hand as well as the camera shows up in the stone's gloss. As well as the ridges of the paper towel light filters on my photo box.

Really should have gotten more light on it.

=\

Playing with milk

I've been making my own yogurt for a while now. I follow this recipe and use Stonyfield Farm's yogurt for starter (it makes for a slightly sweet and very creamy yogurt). I then mix in whatever berries are in season along with a bit of the jam my wife makes. That and an egg makes for a very nice breakfast.

I've also made this Vietnamese yogurt following the method outlined in the link above and again with Stonyfield Farm's yogurt for starter.Very nice but too many calories for someone on a diet.

I tried my hand at making mozzarella using this recipe. It ended up effectively being ricotta. I had thought that the failure came from the recipe. In that the prof is big into self sufficiency and has his own dairy animals and has learned exactly how acidic his buttermilk will make his curds. I then found this which more importantly brought me to this. What she is describing is what happened to me. So I took her advice and reconstituted a gallon of non-fat dried milk and replaced a pint of it with light cream. I then followed her mozzarella recipe this evening with the addition of the prof's brine bath. It behaved as described and it smelled like cheese when it was warm. I'll be trying some tomorrow afternoon.

----

I've tried the cheese and I'm pleased. It tastes like string cheese but not as dry and rubbery. The outside is very salty from the brine. I expect that to be absorbed into the cheese in the next couple days. I'm a little worried it will be a bit too salty but it's too early to tell. I soaked it about 18 hours so I'll soak it less if it is too salty.

After I made it I learned about lipase and how it will make it taste more like Italian cheese. Might play with that next.

Update: A few days later and the salt had absorbed into the cheese. Not at all salty. It does melt when used in cooking but not completely when added at the end. I think this was due to me not working the cheese until all the whey was out of it. I was concerned that it would become too rubbery (too much like string cheese) if worked too much. I suspect it would've melt if added to the dish earlier.

End result: More flavorful than string cheese but it didn't melt as easily. I'm not sure if working it more would kill the flavor.

Bird Suet Recipes

Nifty

heh

(via Clayton Cramer)

Welcome To The Machine

What did you dream? It's alright we told you what to dream.

People are strange

People are strange when you're a stranger

Faces look ugly when you're alone

Women seem wicked when you're unwanted

...falling down...

...falling down...

...my fair lady.