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Thursday, June 28, 2007

Thought - If the price moves strongly in a direction and then just moves horizontal for a few bars, it will pull back or reverse. Not a good time to enter. Moves strongly = (in usd/chf case) something like 120 points.

EUR/USD - Still deciding which way to go.
GBP/USD - Entered on long 2.0024, stop 1.9928, limit 2.0070
USD/JPY & EUR/JPY - Watching.
USD/CHF - Stopped out on short 1.2285. Loss diff 32. I entered after the price was done moving. Watching as I don't know if this is just a pull back.
EUR/CHF - Stopped out on short 1.6542. Loss diff 13. Same as usd/chf, I entered after the price was done.
AUD/USD - Looking again at my last loss on this pair. It wasn't that the 5 & 8 days were close, it was that the 5 day was running through the bars. Watching.
USD/CAD - Stopped out on long 1.0743. Loss diff 74. Same as the ones above, the Alligator was running through the price bars. Needs to be away from the bars.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

EUR/USD & GBP/USD - Two bars now with short SAR indicators. But I think this is nothing more than a pull back. Will check again in the morning.
USD/JPY & EUR/JPY - Could have had a profit with a tight limited short. I think these are in the middle of a pull back and not a reverse
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2285, stop 1.2317, limit 1.2223. At this point, the major move was on the 6/22 bar. Price has moved sideways since then.
EUR/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.6542, stop 1.6555, limit 1.6408. Wanted to move stop to 0.6554, but the price was too close.
AUD/USD - Stopped out on long 0.8426. Profit diff 19. Looking at my notes I have a 1/2 ATR limit if the 5 & 8 days are close. They weren't on 6/18, but they were a few bars before. Need to stop being so sloppy.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0743, stop 1.0669, limit 1.0879.

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

EUR/USD & GBP/USD - Watching.
USD/JPY & EUR/JPY - SAR is indicating short. Alligator is indicating long. I think this may be nothing but a pull back before the long continues. Watching
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2285, stop 1.2356, limit 1.2223.
EUR/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.6542, stop 1.6596, limit 1.6408.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8445 (wanted 0.8449 but price is too close). limit 0.8525.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0743, stop 1.0665, limit 1.0879.

Monday, June 25, 2007

EUR/USD & GBP/USD - Watching.
USD/JPY - Stopped out on 123.76. Loss diff of 34. Watching.
EUR/JPY - Limited out. Profit diff 98. 13 day is shifting away from the 5 & 8. In the past this means a pull back. Watching.
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2285, stop 1.2421, limit 1.2223.
EUR/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.6542, stop 1.6637, limit 1.6408.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8442. limit 0.8525.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0743, stop 1.0651, limit 1.0879.

Sunday, June 24, 2007

EUR/USD & GBP/USD - Then again, I could be wrong. The 5 and 8 day bowing away from each other looks to be a good sign. The 13 day is still indicating downtrend, so I'll watch a bit more. I'm thinking I could enter now.
USD/JPY - Moved stop on long123.76, stop 123.42, limit 124.34 (1 atr)
EUR/JPY - Still not sure if I should enter again. Price is near it's high. Had I entered, I would set my limit to 167.95. Also, had I entered at the start of this uptrend, I would have taken profit twice on 1 ATR limits. This makes me think a pull back will be coming. Then again, I could be watching a good trade come and go. Ehh.
Update: Entered long 165.68, stop 164.35, limit 166.66.
USD/CHF - Price hasn't pulled back but this looks like a good trade. Entered on short 1.2285, stop 1.2424, limit 1.2223.
EUR/CHF - Limited out. Profit diff 30. Missread my notes. The 1 ATR limit is when the 13 day is close to the price, not against the direction. Should have been a 3.5 ATR. Entered on short 1.6542, stop 1.6645, limit 1.6408.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8417. limit 0.8525
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0743, stop 1.0636, limit 1.0879 (1.5 ATR)

Thursday, June 21, 2007

EUR/USD - Watching. Looks like a pull back by morning
GBP/USD - Watching. Not showing eur/usd's pullpack yet
USD/JPY - Entered long on 123.76, stop 123.10, limit 124.34 (1 atr)
EUR/JPY - Entered long on 165.68, stop 164.35, limit 166.66 (1 atr). Update: Limited out. Profit diff of 98. I would re-enter, but the price is at its high.
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2390, stop 1.2431, limit 1.2344. This is looking like it will stop out. Seems a one ATR limit when the 13 day is against is too much. Looks like .75 would have worked. Update: How strange. Price shot down overnight and I hit my limit. Profit diff 46. SAR is too close on this bar to enter another short.
EUR/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.6588, stop 1.6665, limit 1.6408. Update: I just realized that the limit I set was for when the 13 day was going in the right direction (x3.5). That wasn't the case and I changed my limit to 1.6558.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8394. limit 0.8525
USD/CAD -
Limited out. Profit diff of 81.
Entered long 1.0743, stop 1.0618, limit 1.0879 (1.5 ATR as 5 & 8 day lines are close)

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

EUR/USD - Watching
GBP/USD - Watching
USD/JPY - Watching
EUR/JPY - Watching
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2390, stop 1.2443, limit 1.2344
EUR/CHF - A chance to see if my limit ideas work here. Entered short 1.6588, stop 1.6672, limit 1.6408.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8376. limit 0.8525
USD/CAD - No Change on long 1.0671, stop 1.0614, limit 1.0752.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

EUR/USD - Price looks like it is trying to reverse. It looks like I could have hit a profit if I had entered on the 6/15 bar. At that point the 5 and 8 day lines had moved significantly away from each other. That may be the key indicator.

USD/JPY - The 6/14 bar was the start of this uptrend. On that day the SAR was moderately close and the Alligator was tightly bunched. By the 6/19 bar the 5 day had moved away from the other lines. But the price looks to have stalled on that bar. Not sure if there will be a pull back very soon.

GBP/USD - Very much the same activity as eur/usd. However, the price didn't go up as far. But it looks like it wants to continue upwards.

EUR/JPY - Similar to eur/usd as well. Where the 5 day bowed down a good deal on the 6/15 and 6/18 bar. But at that point the price had already shot up a good deal. The best time to have entered was on the 6/14 bar. At that point the SAR looked good (but I've been burned on that before) but the Alligator was tight. So there was no clear sign with the signals I'm using.

USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2390, stop 1.2460, limit 1.2344

EUR/CHF - The 13 day seems to hold more weight on this one. When it is away from the 5 and 8 days the signals look to be good.

AUD/USD -

Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8355. limit 0.8525

Thought about my loser the other day. I should have entered with a 1.75 ATR limit on the first position. I entered with a one ATR limit and then entered another position with a one ATR limit. If I had entered the first position correctly, I would not have entered the second. As the price was starting to act like a reversal was coming at that point.

USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0671, stop 1.0614, limit 1.0752. This is looking like it will stop out. Think my mistake on this one was entering with a SAR that was so close. Normally a good entry SAR is a bit away from the price

Monday, June 18, 2007

EUR/USD - Alligator is wide but is pointing the opposite direction that the price is going. I'm going to look into trading this and gbp/usd when the SAR and Alligator are in agreement.

USD/JPY - Only the 5 day is moving away from the other lines. Watching.

GBP/USD - Same deal as eur/usd.

EUR/JPY - Watching.

USD/CHF - Entered short 1.2390, stop 1.2466, limit 1.2344

EUR/CHF - Watching.

AUD/USD -

Stoped out on short 0.8353. Loss diff 76

Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8339. limit 0.8525

USD/CAD - No change on long 1.0671, stop 1.0602, limit 1.0752

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Still strongly questioning if I should continue to watch eur/usd and gbp/usd. But, on both I entered when the Alligator was tight. Seem I can get a good one sometimes when it is tight on a few pairs. But the losses tend to be greater. Think if the .75 or .8 ATR limits don't work I'll look at them only when the Alligator has opened up.

EUR/USD - Yeah, a .80 or a .75 ATR for limits on this pair. Stopped out on short 1.3351. Loss diff 15

USD/JPY - Alligator is still tight even though it is moving up well.

GBP/USD - Same deal as eur/usd. Need a .75 or .8 ATR limit. Stopped out on short 1.9675. Loss diff 106

EUR/JPY - Alligator is open but is indicating a short while the price shoots up. Watching.

USD/CHF - Looks like a short will be signaled in the morning. Price didn't hit 1.2494.

EUR/CHF - Looks like it wants to continue up.

AUD/USD - Looks like entering a second was incorrect. SAR has flipped and I would have offset but LiteForex won't let me. "Order too close to market". Guess I'll let it stop out then.

Waiting for short 0.8353, stop 0.8429, limit 0.8276 to die.

Entered long 0.8426, stop 0.8332. limit 0.8525

USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0671, stop 1.0602, limit 1.0752

Thursday, June 14, 2007

EUR/USD - Hmmm, maybe a .80 ATR for limits on this pair? That would have hit the limit. Not sure if it is turning around. Moved stop on short 1.3351, stop 1.3366, limit 1.3257

USD/JPY - Waiting for the Alligator to open up.

GBP/USD - Moved stop on short 1.9675, stop 1.9781, limit 1.9603

EUR/JPY - Yep, stopped out. Loss diff 164. Waiting for the Alligator to open up.

USD/CHF - Price still hasn't hit 1.2494. Watching

EUR/CHF - Watching

AUD/USD - Limit hit. Profit diff 63. Hmm, seems I used one ATR when I should have used two. Question now is, should I enter with two ATR limit or one? Think I'll try one. Entered short 0.8353, stop 0.8429, limit 0.8276

USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0671, stop 1.0599, limit 1.0752

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

So to date, for eur/usd, gbp/usd, usd/jpy, and eur/jpy, I'll not enter a second position in the same direction after limiting out if the Alligator didn't agree with the SAR. That may hold true if the Alligator is all bunched up as well.

EUR/USD - Was four points away from stopping on the last bar. Moved stop on short 1.3351, stop 1.3403, limit 1.3257

USD/JPY - Glad I didn't enter. The price shot up through the SAR point. Not going to touch this until the Alligator opens up.

GBP/USD - Moved stop on short 1.9675, stop 1.9811, limit 1.9603

EUR/JPY -

This is probably going to stop out. I think the usd/jpy rule applies with this pair. I'm not going to enter second position, in the same direction, after limiting out if the first position didn't agree with the Alligator.

Moved stop on short 161.71, stop 163.35, limit 160.95

USD/CHF - Price still hasn't hit 1.2494. Watching

EUR/CHF - Watching

AUD/USD - Moved stop on short 0.8410, stop 0.8451, limit 0.8347.

USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0671, stop 1.0587, limit 1.0752

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

EUR/USD - Moved stop on short 1.3351, stop 1.3453, limit 1.3257

USD/JPY - Alligator is still all bunched up but SAR is now showing short. Watching

GBP/USD - Not looking great. Moved stop and limit on short 1.9675, stop 1.9847, limit 1.9603

EUR/JPY -

Limit hit, profit diff 99.

Entered short 161.71, stop 163.69, limit 160.95

USD/CHF - Hmm, should have entered. Would have set limit for 1.2494. Watching

EUR/CHF - Watching

AUD/USD - Entered short 0.8410, stop 0.8463, limit 0.8347.

USD/CAD - Entered long 1.0671, stop 1.0575, limit 1.0752

Monday, June 11, 2007

EUR/USD - Moved stop on short 1.3351, stop 1.3489, limit 1.3257

USD/JPY - Alligator is all bunched up but SAR is indicating long. Watching

GBP/USD - Moved stop on short 1.9675, stop 1.9891, limit 1.9531

EUR/JPY - Moved stop on short 162.52, stop 163.92, limit 161.53. Price action forming a triangle.

USD/CHF and EUR/CHF - Price continues upwards, but isn't near the limit that would have been set if I entered.

AUD/USD - Watching

USD/CAD - May be getting ready for a short.

Sunday, June 10, 2007

EUR/USD - Entered short on 1.3351, stop 1.3515, limit 1.3257

USD/JPY - Alligator is all bunched up but SAR is indicating long. Watching

GBP/USD - Entered short on 1.9675, stop 1.9942, limit 1.9531

EUR/JPY - Moved stop on short 162.52, stop 164.18, limit 161.53

USD/CHF - Presently looks like an exaggerated version of eur/chf.

EUR/CHF -

Stopped out on 1.6467. Loss diff of 35.

Not sure what to make of it right now. SAR is indicating up but Alligator doesn't agree.

AUD/USD - SAR is again indicating short. But I don't think so.

USD/CAD - SAR is indicating up but Alligator doesn't agree. Watching

Thursday, June 07, 2007

For EUR/USD and GBP/USD, don't go for another position in the same direction after limit is hit if the 13 day is against.

Update:
Real tempted to drop all the very volatile pairs.

I've noticed, and been able to catch with a close limit, some SAR indicated pull backs. But it is starting to look like I fail as often as succeed. The indicators might be good for where the price is headed over a given week, but the pull backs stop me out. That is even with setting the SAR far from the price.


EUR/USD -


Large reverse stopped me out. Price is through the SAR point. It'll flip over in the morning.

Stopped out on long 1.3517. Loss diff 86.

Watching for now. Tempted to go short, but both this pair and GBP/USD have been giving me fits recently. Might just drop them if this continues.

Update:
A short last night would have hit limit successfully. Huge drop in price.

USD/JPY -

Moved stop on short 120.96 to 121.56, limit 120.33

Update:
Stopped out on short 120.96. Loss diff 60.

No indication of pull back. This might be another one where I set one position and wait until a reverse comes before taking another one.

GBP/USD -

I was correct, the price did pull back.

Also, this pair is like an exaggerated version of EUR/USD. Should look at both to get an idea of how they both will move.

I think there may be a good short coming up but both EUR/USD and this pair are starting to irritate me.

Update:
A short last night would have hit limit successfully. Huge drop in price.

EUR/JPY -

Limit hit on short 163.31. Profit diff 83.

Entered follow-on short 162.52, stop 164.47, limit 161.53

Update:
Not sure if I should offset now with no loss or wait it out. I'll wait it out for now.

USD/CHF -

Moved stop on short 1.2180 to 1.2288, limit 1.2124

Not looking good... this might be another take a profit and wait for the reverse pair. But, EUR/CHF is looking ok.

Update:
Huge reverse.

Stopped out on short 1.2180. Loss diff 87.

EUR/CHF -

Moved stop on short 1.6467 to 1.6502, limit 1.6405

Update:
Large reverse. Will most likely be stopped out. Should offset, but I'm trying to determine if I should stop watching some pairs.

AUD/USD -

Price was backtracking in the morning and I left it alone. SAR is even closer and I'll continue to watch.

Update:
SAR has flipped to the short side. Tempted to go short. But I'm a bit uncertain based on how strong the Alligator is indicating a long.

USD/CAD -

And I stopped out on short at 1.0608. Loss diff of 29.

Reasonable loss.... think I may have got this pair figured....a bit.

Alligator shows stong downtrend and SAR, while showing uptrend, is very close to the price action. I'll check again in the morning.

Update:
Moved up pretty good overnight, but has pulled halfway back. Still watching.

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Forgot to post the other day.

USD/JPY shows the direction that EUR/JPY will take.

Also, don't enter USD/JPY when 5 day is in the price action.

I'm also thinking that a tight limit on pairs where the Alligator doesn't agree with the SAR gets around the issue where a few pairs do most of their moving in the wee hours.

EUR/USD -


Limit hit on long 1.3492. Profit diff 31.

Entered long 1.3517, stop 1.3413, limit 1.3611 on 6/5 and moved stop to 1.3431 today.

USD/JPY -

Stopped out on long 122.02. Loss diff of 47.

Entered short 120.96, stop 121.92, limit 120.33

I'm using a full ATR here. Seems the big issue is when the 5 day is in the price action.

GBP/USD - Priceline didn't move between 6/5 and 6/6 bars. This seems to mean the price is going to pull back again. Alligator is still very tight.

EUR/JPY -

Should have known that USD/JPY leads this by a day or so.

Considering the price is very near the new bar's SAR and that USD/JPY is showing short, I will offset.

Offset 163.69. Loss diff of 35.

No short SAR on this pair yet. Will check again in the morning.

Update:
Well, that was quick. Checked in at 10pm to see how things were going and saw the SAR had flipped over to short.

Entered short 163.31, stop 164.59, limit 162.48

Using full ATR on limit for this pair.

USD/CHF -

Entered short 1.2180, stop 1.2315, limit 1.2124 on 6/6 bar and moved stop to 1.2288 today

EUR/CHF -

Entered short 1.6467, stop 1.6549, limit 1.6405 on 6/6 bar and moved stop to 1.6529 today

AUD/USD -

Entered long 0.8376, stop 0.8286, limit 0.8430 on 6/6.

It hit its limit this morning. Profit diff 54.

Entered long 0.8430, stop 0.8286, limit 0.8454 this morning. Moved stop to 0.8336 just now.

Alligator widening up.

Update:
Limit hit on 0.8430. Profit offset of 24.

Didn't re-enter at 10pm. SAR is 63 below the current low, which is the size of one grid box currently. The SAR pattern from the start of this uptrend is hard to figure. I've seen one instance where it isn't too close and the price continues on and 3-4 instances where the price pulls back enough that the SAR will flip to the short side before continuing up.

Will reassess in the morning

USD/CAD -

Moved stop on short at 1.0608 to 1.0637, limit 1.0135.

SAR is tight to price, but it seems to do that on this pair. Alligator is wide and showing good downtrend.

Monday, June 04, 2007

I'm thinking I should make use of closer limits when the SAR is good but the Alligator isn't in agreement.

EUR/USD -


Projected Alligator indicates a long and SAR agrees. Current Alligator is still showing short.

I'll enter with a one ATR limit.

Entered long 1.3492, stop 1.3392, limit 1.3523 (subtracted spread)

Trying something a little different. Took the ATR of the last bar as the current bar is unformed and based the limit off of the high of the 6/1 bar (two back).

This might be too conservative, but I've been pretty loose for the past month.

USD/JPY -

Moved stop on long 122.02 to 121.55, and limit 122.33.

SAR and 5 day are very close to the price. I'm not at all sure this was a good entry.

Maybe set the limit to half the ATR when the Alligator doesn't look so good on this pair?

GBP/USD - Alligator is tightly intertwined, but SAR is good. If I set a limit based on one ATR, it would have been hit already. I think I'm going to wait until the Alligator isn't so intertwined.

EUR/JPY -

Moved stop on 163.69 to 162.76, limit 165.01.

Wondering if this pair needs the half ATR for when the 5 and 8 days are so close.

USD/CHF - Watching. Looks like it wants to go short.

EUR/CHF - Watching. Looks like it wants to go short.

AUD/USD - Ignored this morning due to the Alligator showing short. Think it is going strong long. May enter in the morning.

USD/CAD -

Limit hit on 1.0829. Profit diff of 235.

Moved stop on short at 1.0608 to 1.0709, limit 1.0135.

Friday, June 01, 2007

Confirmed: Limit doesn't activate until spread difference is met.

My usd/cad limit is for 1.0598 and the low today was 1.0595. Liteforex offers a 4pt spread on that pair. I'll move my limits accordingly.

I may look into close limits for cases where the SAR, Alligator, and ATR are not in agreement. I mentioned this before, but have not had time to look into it.

USD/CHF is another pair who's action moves strongly in the morning and positions shouldn't be moved/modified in the evening.

EUR/USD -
Watching. SAR and Alligator aren't in agreement. But ATR is rising.

USD/JPY -

Watching. 5 day is still running close and there is a slight rise in ATR. Might be good for long on Sunday or Monday.

Update:
Entered long 122.02, stop 121.44, and limit 122.33.

GBP/USD - Watching. Alligator is tightly intertwined, but SAR is good. Also, price is moving contrary to the priceline. For this pair, that is a bad sign.

EUR/JPY - I'll move stop and limit on Sunday at market open. Limit will be moved to 165.01 to take into account what I learned about LiteForex and its limits. Presently no change on long 163.69. stop 162.48, and limit 165.05.

Update:
Moved stop and limit on 163.69. Stop to 162.57 and limit to 165.01.

5 and 8 day are still intertwined.

USD/CHF -

There was a tremendus upsurge in price in the morning.

Stopped out on short 1.2250. Loss diff of 51.

Limit needs to be modified for when the Alligator isn't in agreement with SAR. Like maybe a 1/2 ATR.

EUR/CHF - This reversed strongly like USD/CHF. The full ATR limit would have worked on this pair though.

AUD/USD - Price is continuing strongly upwards. Might be worth a look Monday morning.

USD/CAD -

Price hit a low of 1.0595. This confirms my suspicion that the price must go past the limit by the amount of the spread before it activates with LiteForex.

Will move limit to 1.0594 at market open on Sunday.

At present it looks like it will continue down strongly though.

Update:
Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0762, limit 1.0594.

Considering that this pair should have limited out on Friday, I'll enter another short.

Entered short at 1.0608, stop 1.0762, limit 1.0135 (139 before subtracting the spread).