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Thursday, June 07, 2007

For EUR/USD and GBP/USD, don't go for another position in the same direction after limit is hit if the 13 day is against.

Update:
Real tempted to drop all the very volatile pairs.

I've noticed, and been able to catch with a close limit, some SAR indicated pull backs. But it is starting to look like I fail as often as succeed. The indicators might be good for where the price is headed over a given week, but the pull backs stop me out. That is even with setting the SAR far from the price.


EUR/USD -


Large reverse stopped me out. Price is through the SAR point. It'll flip over in the morning.

Stopped out on long 1.3517. Loss diff 86.

Watching for now. Tempted to go short, but both this pair and GBP/USD have been giving me fits recently. Might just drop them if this continues.

Update:
A short last night would have hit limit successfully. Huge drop in price.

USD/JPY -

Moved stop on short 120.96 to 121.56, limit 120.33

Update:
Stopped out on short 120.96. Loss diff 60.

No indication of pull back. This might be another one where I set one position and wait until a reverse comes before taking another one.

GBP/USD -

I was correct, the price did pull back.

Also, this pair is like an exaggerated version of EUR/USD. Should look at both to get an idea of how they both will move.

I think there may be a good short coming up but both EUR/USD and this pair are starting to irritate me.

Update:
A short last night would have hit limit successfully. Huge drop in price.

EUR/JPY -

Limit hit on short 163.31. Profit diff 83.

Entered follow-on short 162.52, stop 164.47, limit 161.53

Update:
Not sure if I should offset now with no loss or wait it out. I'll wait it out for now.

USD/CHF -

Moved stop on short 1.2180 to 1.2288, limit 1.2124

Not looking good... this might be another take a profit and wait for the reverse pair. But, EUR/CHF is looking ok.

Update:
Huge reverse.

Stopped out on short 1.2180. Loss diff 87.

EUR/CHF -

Moved stop on short 1.6467 to 1.6502, limit 1.6405

Update:
Large reverse. Will most likely be stopped out. Should offset, but I'm trying to determine if I should stop watching some pairs.

AUD/USD -

Price was backtracking in the morning and I left it alone. SAR is even closer and I'll continue to watch.

Update:
SAR has flipped to the short side. Tempted to go short. But I'm a bit uncertain based on how strong the Alligator is indicating a long.

USD/CAD -

And I stopped out on short at 1.0608. Loss diff of 29.

Reasonable loss.... think I may have got this pair figured....a bit.

Alligator shows stong downtrend and SAR, while showing uptrend, is very close to the price action. I'll check again in the morning.

Update:
Moved up pretty good overnight, but has pulled halfway back. Still watching.