Might stop watching the forex markets

I've been trying to figure out a way to trade forex over a week to month time frame. Some trades come out spectacular... and the losses are just as huge.

I'm coming to the conclusion that forex is geared for day trading. At least for the small investor. The only way that I see long term trades working is with carry trades. And that does not look like it is for the small player.

I'm not sure if it is my ongoing headaches that are making it hard for me to see how to work forex, but at this point I'm going to stop following it and go back to watching/trading ETFs.

Considering that there are monetary, gold, and silver ETFs now I think I should be good.

I'm seeing this more and more. Where the signals on the weekly chart are very good... after the fact.

As the price moves, signals are given that often reverse by mid-week. That is common with all signals but on a weekly chart there is much time lost. I'm also seeing where very good gains are being eaten up in the next entry.

What I've seen in this last batch is where the price reversed well under my limit. So if I reset my limits lower in the future I won't make the high returns that I'm after.

Hmmm.


EUR/USD - Moved stop on short 1.4612, stop 1.4600, limit 1.4105 and it limited out shortly thereafter. Profit diff 12.
GBP/USD - Watching.
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - Stopped out on long 1.0021. Loss diff 255.
EUR/JPY - No change on long 164.42, stop 159.50.
GBP/JPY - No change on long 228.52, stop 222.80, limit 236.71.

=========================

Update:

Temps that go from 15 degrees to 70 hurt my head. Been near worthless.

EUR/JPY - Stopped out long 164.42 on 12/31. Profit diff 42
GBP/JPY - Stopped out long 228.52 on 12/31. Loss diff -572

EUR/USD - Moved stop on short 1.4612, stop 1.4821, limit 1.4105
GBP/USD - Watching.
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - No change on long 1.0021, stop 0.9766, limit 1.0465
EUR/JPY - No change on long 164.42, stop 159.50.
GBP/JPY - No change on long 228.52, stop 222.80, limit 236.71.

EUR/USD - 12/6 Entered on short 1.4612, stop 1.4923, limit 1.4105
GBP/USD - Watching.
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0021, stop 0.9766, limit 1.0465
EUR/JPY - Entered on long 164.42, stop 159.50. Haven't set a limit on this one as I'm not sure what the price is doing.
GBP/JPY - Entered on long 228.52, stop 222.80, limit 236.71.

EUR/USD - Watching
GBP/USD - Watching.
USD/JPY - Watching.
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - Watching.
EUR/JPY - Stopped out on short 166.91. Profit diff 488.

That test showed that a limit needs to be in place. That could have been 300 points better.

Update:

Held off entering usd/cad too long. Had seen short upswings in the past and mistakenly thought that they would be large. If I had followed my signals I would have entered 11/11.

USD/CAD - Entered on long 1.0021, stop 0.9467, limit 1.0465

EUR/USD - Watching
GBP/USD - Watching.
USD/JPY - Watching.
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - Watching.
EUR/JPY - Moved stop on short 166.91, stop 162.03. Added a limit of 158.91

EUR/USD - Watching
GBP/USD - Watching.
USD/JPY - Watching.
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - Watching.
EUR/JPY - No change on short 166.91, stop 167.71.

EUR/USD - Watching
GBP/USD - Watching.
USD/JPY - Stopped out on long 116.61. Loss diff 432. Want to check a few more things before dropping this pair
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - Watching.
EUR/JPY - No change on short 166.91, stop 167.71.

My desktop puked last week and I was forced to rebuild. As a consequence I lost my liteforex demo setup and I didn't save the password on that account.

I created a new demo account to continue to test there.

I'm also trying to get the hang of EFX's software. Their "pro" software locks up something awful and their base software is pretty barebones. I had been thinking of just going with MB Trading if I had to go with the barebones trading software. But EFX looks to be going towards charting software in the near future.

-------

EUR/USD - Stopped out on 1.4202. Loss diff of 240. Watching
GBP/USD - Watching.
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.29, limit 117.25.
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - Watching.
EUR/JPY - Entered short on 166.91, stop 167.71.

Checking out MB trading. It is an ECN which means that they won't take the other side of your trade. Not liking their software all that much, but that they are a ECN is very appealing.

EUR/USD - No change on 1.4202, stop 1.4442, limit 1.3847. Looks like a loser.
GBP/USD - I did get out too early. Watching.
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.29, limit 117.25.
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - Watching.

EUR/USD - No change on 1.4202, stop 1.4442, limit 1.3847.
GBP/USD - Limited out on long 2.0141. Profit diff 284. But I think I got out too early. Not sure.
USD/JPY - Moved limit on long 116.61, stop 112.29, limit 117.25. This is looking like a bad trade. Even if I had used a limit entry, the exit signal happened on a big reversal. Update: I've removed the limit on this. Looking at it a bit more, the price may be fixing to jump very high... or not.
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - Watching.

EUR/USD - Short limit activated on 10/11 at 1.4202, stop 1.4442, limit 1.3847.
GBP/USD - Moved stop and limit on long 2.0141, stop 1.9932, limit 2.0425. Still getting mixed signals.
USD/JPY - Moved stop on long 116.61, stop 112.29, limit 121.84.
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - Watching.

EUR/USD - Set a short limit at 1.4202, stop 1.4442, limit 1.3847.
GBP/USD - Moved stop on long 2.0141, stop 1.9855, limit 2.0978. Some signals are indicating that I should offset and others are saying to hold o.O
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84. Hmm, seems like it wants to go long now.
AUD/USD - Watching. May give a short this week.
USD/CAD - Watching. May give a weak long this week.

EUR/USD - Watching. May give short this week.
GBP/USD - Moved stop on long 2.0141, stop 1.9768, limit 2.0978. Some indications that this will not hit my limit and I'll have to offset. Question: move stop real close?
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84. Based on my other trades with this pair, I will stop watching it if it doesn't trade well.
AUD/USD - Limited out on long 0.8300. Profit diff 463. Should have set limit higher (7+ grid points up from 8/12 bar). Watching.
USD/CAD - Watching

EUR/USD - Limited out on long 1.3671. Profit diff 434. Watching
GBP/USD - Moved stop on long 2.0141, stop 1.9708, limit 2.0978
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84
AUD/USD - No change on long 0.8300, stop 0.7850, limit 0.8763
USD/CAD - Watching

EUR/USD - Moved stop on long 1.3671, stop 1.3452, limit 1.4104
GBP/USD - Moved stop on long 2.0141, stop 1.9680, limit 2.0978
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84
AUD/USD - No change on long 0.8300, stop 0.7850, limit 0.8763
USD/CAD - Watching. Starting to look like I could have gone short on the 8/12 bar

EUR/USD - Moved stop on long 1.3671, stop 1.3387, limit 1.4104
GBP/USD - Moved stop on long 2.0141, stop 1.9635, limit 2.0978
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84. This may end up a loser. Need to check on my CCI.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8300, stop 0.7850, limit 0.8763
USD/CAD - Watching.

I'm thinking I'm going to try some entry stops next time around as well.

EUR/USD - No change on long 1.3671, stop 1.3220, limit 1.4104
GBP/USD - No change on long 2.0141, stop 1.9435, limit 2.0978
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84
AUD/USD - No change on long 0.8300, stop 0.7725, limit 0.8763
USD/CAD - Thought about it some more and the monthly chart won't work as trades span years. Watching.

It does not appear that I can use the CCI to exit safely. I need to assess better limits.

Testing limits:

EUR/USD - 4 grids from signal start
GBP/USD - 4.25 grids from signal start
USD/JPY - 5 grids from signal start (although this last one went down 11... not sure why. Perhaps add to position and move limit when there is a zigzag in the +/- 100 section of the CCI?)
AUD/USD - 4 grids from signal start (around 7 when the SAR is far from the price)

EUR/USD - Entered on long 1.3671, stop 1.3220, limit 1.4104
GBP/USD - Entered on long 2.0141, stop 1.9435, limit 2.0978
USD/JPY - Entered on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84
AUD/USD - Entered on long 0.8300, stop 0.7725, limit 0.8763
USD/CAD - Offset long 1.0669. Loss 150. Switching to monthly chart.

It is very clear that my limits were too close. I think I can use the CCI to figure good exit points but the reason I stopped using it was that the price reversed quickly on the daily charts. Perhaps the weekly charts would be better?

EUR/USD - watching
GBP/USD - watching
USD/JPY - watching
AUD/USD - watching
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0669, stop 1.0385, limit 1.1013