Sunday, October 07, 2007
GBP/USD - Moved stop on long 2.0141, stop 1.9855, limit 2.0978. Some signals are indicating that I should offset and others are saying to hold o.O
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84. Hmm, seems like it wants to go long now.
AUD/USD - Watching. May give a short this week.
USD/CAD - Watching. May give a weak long this week.
Thursday, October 04, 2007
I think I need to use diamond grit for sanding
I used a very light touch on the 400 grit sandpaper and used only one disk for all six.
Well, when I tried to sand on the 600 grit and went through three pads on one stone I realized what was wrong. I was too tired when I thought I was finished with the 400 grit but ended up leaving many ridges and tables. So, I went back to the 400 grit and finished up.
This tells me that I do need two sanding steps.
Also, considering one sanding pad is only good for 1-2 stones, carbide sanding pads aren't cost effective.
I'll know more after I go through the diamond abrasives book.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
It's frustrating.
I found some things I didn't like with Bush after his first term, but when Kerry came up as the Dem candidate I felt I had no other choice (like this time around if it's Hillery). Except now, the Republicans seem to have fully joined with the Democrats in only fielding people from the ruling class. By ruling class I mean people that have little to no connection to the middle class. Any connection displayed to the middle class is nothing more than smoke and mirrors designed only to get votes and money.
In my amateur's view of history I've seen this before. Both parties like the lower class because it is easily controlled with incentives. The lower class lacks the ability/desire to be free actors in life. The upper class does everything in its power to keep more households from joining its ranks as that would mean its influence would become watered down. The upper class *hates* dealing with direct competition.
"Competition is sin." - John D. Rockefeller
"If one understands that socialism is not a share-the-wealth program, but is in reality a method to consolidate and control the wealth, then the seeming paradox of super-rich men promoting socialism becomes no paradox at all. Instead, it becomes logical, even the perfect tool of power-seeking megalomaniacs. Communism, or more accurately, socialism, is not a movement of the downtrodden masses, but of the economic elite." - Gary Allen, author
That leaves the middle class. It is what moves society forward. The middle class, in effect, is society/culture.
What I've seen in other countries that have done well for themselves only to up and die in under a century is the ruling class (aristocracies, theocracies, and plutocracies) kills off (literally or through sanctions) the middle class.
In the US and too many other countries, I'm seeing the middle class having less and less of a say in how things get done. I'm seeing in the US the ever increasing debt load carried by people who should know better. I'm seeing the middle class killing itself through manufactured need for shiny toys that have no use beyond limited entertainment.
Bread and circuses.
Makes me worry.
My wheel dresser arrived
Now that I'm using light pressure on the wheel I notice no real wear.
I made my first attempt at using my templates. My thinking is that if I get that down, symmetric cutting will soon follow.
I found this to be very difficult. The four I tried ended up smaller than the template. I tried leaving one millimeter but working the bulges took too much off. I'll try leaving more space next time.
Waiting on the 600 grit paper and the diamond book to arrive. With a light touch I'm able to make the sandpaper last longer, but I keep running into little facets when the paper is near worn. I'm leaning towards sanding with diamond at this point.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
GBP/USD - Moved stop on long 2.0141, stop 1.9768, limit 2.0978. Some indications that this will not hit my limit and I'll have to offset. Question: move stop real close?
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84. Based on my other trades with this pair, I will stop watching it if it doesn't trade well.
AUD/USD - Limited out on long 0.8300. Profit diff 463. Should have set limit higher (7+ grid points up from 8/12 bar). Watching.
USD/CAD - Watching
Thursday, September 27, 2007
The 220 grit wheel arrived
I found the technique I used with the 100 grit stone to be frustratingly slow. But considering how alarmed I was at the speed the 100 grit cut when the stone was to form, this wasn't a bad thing.
I'm now sure that a sanding step is needed. I was able to get rid of most of the ridges but not all. Even if the cutting was slower, I found that if I persisted at trying to eliminate the ridges on the 220 wheel, I ended up making more ridges and taking off more than I wanted.
Use of the 220 wheel and a lighter touch prolonged the lifespan of the carbide sanding disks, but not by much.
I found the 400 grit to be too aggressive. I attribute this to all the grinding on the 220 wheel. In general, the closer to form I get the rock the faster any given grit will cut. The 400 grit disk was not anywhere this aggressive when it was dealing with much more carry over work from the 220 grit sanding disk. I have a few more 400 grit disks to test this assumption.
The 600 grit disks worked well. I suspect that they may work better when they are not correcting the problems introduced with the 400 grit disks. I'm irritated that I screwed up my last order and only bought two disks. I will have to get some more.
My question now is: Do I test a grit somewhere between 400 and 600 grit? Or try something between 600 and 1000 grit?
I'm well pleased with the tripoli. After finishing with it last night I brought out a finish similar to the cerium oxide finish I got on my first stone. When I moved to the cerium oxide after the tripoli I achieved a finish that displayed a pleasing depth in the stone. One stone in particular shows clear layers of cream with a window into a transparent center. I can only imagine what these stones would look like if I had worked the bottoms.
So, what is my progression like?
1st stone: Some rounded facet like tables all over the cab with a nice shine
2nd through 3rd: No faceting but not symmetrical. Some stones have a dome that have a full curve on one side and a shallow one on the other. One's edge is a nice oval on one side and has sort of a fatter bottom on the other. Nice polish on all.
4th stone: This was a problem stone that I didn't think I'd do well on but still wanted to try. It was some grayish white soft material with mica throughout. I tried working it from the edge as this caught all the mica chips on the edge giving a glittery appearance. The soft stone cut alarmingly fast and I was only able to bring up a soft luster on the dome. The attractive glitter does not show up in the finished product. The next time I find a rock with many mica chips in it, I'll work it from the side where the full face of the mica chips show as those edges took a better polish.
As I'm concerned about the state of my 100 grit wheel, further grinding will have to wait until my dresser arrives. However, my templates (from a different supplier) have arrived and I'll try my hand with the trim saw.
Update:
After looking around it appears that the finer carbide sanding pads come only in 400 and 600 grit.
So I'm going to order a bunch of 600 grit.
Considering how it is looking like I will be able to get away with one sanding step, I'm also going to order "How to Use Diamond Abrasive" by Riggle.
Hmm, that reminds me, I should mention the books I picked up along with my grinder.
"Cabochon Cutting" and "Advanced Cabochon Cutting" by Cox
"The Art of Gem Cutting" by Dake
All of these books are quite dated (especially the Dake book). However, what modern books I've found on this subject tend to have a great deal of fluff. Even if they are dated they still have useful hints and pointers. I'd have to say both of the Cox books have more useful info on cabs.
The real issue on cab books is that beyond a few specifics, the actual act of cutting and polishing cabs appears to vary greatly between cutters. An example I've seen several times is how cutter A claims one polishing agent is the best for whatever stone. While cutter B is unable to get any luster from cutter A's polishing agent, but gets wonderful results from a different agent.
So it would appear that anyone who wants to learn to cut cabs must put in time and effort actually cutting stones in order to discover what works best for him.
Monday, September 24, 2007
My first grinder
Well, in googling around I found out a few things:
- As mentioned the other day, public mines are like a lottery and should really be approached as a family fun activity.
- Faceted stones do the best in general (i.e. More setting options and does well unset) but adequate rough is very pricey to just practice on. Synthetic is more reasonable but doesn't sell well.
- Cabochon (aka "cabs") cuts use cheaper rough and is generally thought of as "easy".
- Faceting equipment is very pricey. Generally the price goes along with precision. A skilled faceter can work around imprecise equipment but a rank amateur (i.e. me) can not.
- Cabbing equipment is pricey, but not as bad as faceting equipment. Looking at the lower price range there appears to be some junk mixed in with adequate equipment. The adequate equipment is cheap because it is inconvenient. By that I mean that the work zone in cramped, the wheels are thin, or only one wheel can be mounted on the arbor at one time.
- It is generally thought that, at the very least, a hobbist cutter will be able to pay for their hobby with what they make.
Low end cab equipment costs a few hundred dollars (under $400 if you look around). The all metal models have ok resale values if you find you can't cab very well. The main issue with low end cab equipment is inconvence. If you go with the plain arbor unit you'll have multiple wheels (two in the smaller units) to move to without slowing down, but no trim saw (trim saws save wear and tear on your wheels and can carve up small slabs). Units with a built in trim saw tend to be cramped in front of the wheel and allow only one wheel at a time (meaning you have to take time to switch wheels/sanding pads when you're ready for them).
I decided on the "Rock Rascal" model TM. It comes with a trim saw, 100 grit carbide wheel, 220 grit sand pad, felt polishing pad, mounting head for the pads, and a rubber backer for the pads.
Note on distributers: spend some time in pricing your equipment. You will find very large price differences for the same item at different sites (sometimes by several hundred dollars). I went with the cheapest I could find. That was a mistake. The invoice indicated that they were doing a week long inventory and wouldn't ship. Then it was back ordered. In the end it took about a month to get my grinder. It is near two months now and the last parts of my order have not arrived (a loupe, scribe, and templates). So if you do go with the cheapest distributer, you may just get what you get.
I had ordered some rough moonstone on ebay to go along with what was found at the public mines. Here too, don't go super cheap. Find common rough (like moonstone) that is pretty cheap to begin with and then be willing to pay a bit more. Two examples: #1 I first bought a pound of cheap moonstone for a little over $10. It had little flash or much usable stone. #2 I then bought 500ct of moonstone for the same price. Nearly all of it has nice electric blue flashes and is very usable.
But now that I had my grinder I didn't want my first attempts to be with my bought stone or the public mine stone. Luckly I had a substitute. My daughter has taken to bringing me stones that she finds. NC is pretty neat in that there are all sorts of interesting rocks just lying around. So I had a number of feldspar looking pebbles (translucent creamy colored stones that look stream smoothed).
My first grinding attempt was a learning experiance. Specifically, carbide sanding pads have a *very* short lifespan. I had bought some 400grit and 600grit sanding pads to go along with the base rock rascal. Every pad was spent before I was done with the stone. Around 5 minutes of useful life.
Now considering that the 100 grit wheel is used to get the stone formed roughly into shape and the 220 grit (sandpaper or wheel) is where the real work is done (all other work is smoothing in preparation for polishing), this would have me buying a ton of 220 grit sandpaper. Not to mention that the grinder only came with one 220 grit paper. I simply had no idea how very short a lifespan they had.
So, a 220 grit wheel is an absolute must with a rock rascal type setup.
Something I didn't like about the carbide sandpaper is that when the grit wore out in one area it was still ok in another. This caused some facet like aspects on my first stone. I'm pretty sure that using a 220 grit wheel will help with this, but it still bothers me. There are two other options available: diamond grit on a pad or diamond sandpaper. I'm going to use the carbide sandpaper again when my 220 wheel arrives. If I continue to have issues I'll look into the diamond grit. The diamond sandpaper is awful expensive and I have no idea if it can be recharged.
I had bought several grits of sandpaper the first time around thinking the coarse wheel and sandpaper would leave gouges. This wasn't the case. All grinding left smooth areas. Also, the closer I got to the desired form the faster the grit cut. Sometimes too fast. This left me thinking that I might want to try to get as much of the work done on the wheels as possible and then try just one sanding ~600 grit. If I can get down to one sanding I'd feel better about the costs of using diamond grit. But I just won't have a good idea until my 220 grit wheel arrives.
I used cerium oxide for my first stone and it worked pretty well. This time around I'm planning on prepolishing with tripoli. Tripoli has a grit of somewhere around 1000-1200.
So, if I had it to do over again:
Rock Rascal TM
Trim saw lubricant
220 grit carbide wheel (must have)
400 grit carbide sandpaper (not sure if needed)
600 grit carbide sandpaper (compare with diamond grit if this is the only sanding)
Tripoli with additional felt pad (haven't used at the time of this writing)
Cerium oxide (I suspect any general polish would work)
Carbide wheel dresser (needed with carbide wheels)
Dop wax (didn't use the first time which resulted in limited control)
Dops - various diameters of dowel 3-4" long (pretty much anything can be used)
1" wide paintbrush (for polish... get one per type of polish)
Dop wax preparation (I use old cans on the stove)
Templates (to form stones for commercial settings (not needed at first))
x10 Loupe (not needed at first)
Note on the wheel dresser: I suspect I used too much pressure on my first attempt as some uneveness has developed. This makes it hard to grind well. Remember - light pressure on the wheels.
At present, I've ground four other stones on the 100 grit wheel and am waiting for the 220 grit wheel to arrive. I think I'm catching on to working the coarse wheel as I can get the stone near to sanding ready. The thing that threw me off was how fast the coarse wheel ate into the stone when only ridges were left. I caught myself from cutting away too much, but I did cut more than I wanted on a couple of the new stones.
How I found out about stone cutting
Mrs. Bear and I took this to be simple curiosity at first, but it wasn't so.
I suggested we find a museum with a large crystal exhibit and Mrs. Bear agreed. However, once she started poking around she found that NC is a gemstone dense state. She noted that there were several public mines in the state. So we picked a little one that was nearby and headed out.
My girl was enraptured. Generally, I'm lucky to get 10-15 minutes of good focus from her. That first day of sluicing the rocks... she was intent on the task for a full three hours. Amazing.
I became interested in how to make money on the stones. Heh.
To make a long story short, we hit a few public mines near to the house but generally just for my girl. Reading up in the archives here it became clear that #1 most public mines are "enriched" (operators introduce outside stone of little value to the dirt) and #2 that it is a lot like a lottery. By "lottery" I mean that it is highly unlikely that you'll find anything of real value (otherwise the mine wouldn't be public).
Still, my girl loves it and it got me interested in lapidary.
Next up, my first grinder.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Monday, September 17, 2007
GBP/USD - Moved stop on long 2.0141, stop 1.9680, limit 2.0978
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84
AUD/USD - No change on long 0.8300, stop 0.7850, limit 0.8763
USD/CAD - Watching. Starting to look like I could have gone short on the 8/12 bar
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Sunday, September 09, 2007
GBP/USD - Moved stop on long 2.0141, stop 1.9635, limit 2.0978
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84. This may end up a loser. Need to check on my CCI.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8300, stop 0.7850, limit 0.8763
USD/CAD - Watching.
Sunday, September 02, 2007
EUR/USD - No change on long 1.3671, stop 1.3220, limit 1.4104
GBP/USD - No change on long 2.0141, stop 1.9435, limit 2.0978
USD/JPY - No change on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84
AUD/USD - No change on long 0.8300, stop 0.7725, limit 0.8763
USD/CAD - Thought about it some more and the monthly chart won't work as trades span years. Watching.
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Testing limits:
EUR/USD - 4 grids from signal start
GBP/USD - 4.25 grids from signal start
USD/JPY - 5 grids from signal start (although this last one went down 11... not sure why. Perhaps add to position and move limit when there is a zigzag in the +/- 100 section of the CCI?)
AUD/USD - 4 grids from signal start (around 7 when the SAR is far from the price)
EUR/USD - Entered on long 1.3671, stop 1.3220, limit 1.4104
GBP/USD - Entered on long 2.0141, stop 1.9435, limit 2.0978
USD/JPY - Entered on long 116.61, stop 112.05, limit 121.84
AUD/USD - Entered on long 0.8300, stop 0.7725, limit 0.8763
USD/CAD - Offset long 1.0669. Loss 150. Switching to monthly chart.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
EUR/USD - watching
GBP/USD - watching
USD/JPY - watching
AUD/USD - watching
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0669, stop 1.0385, limit 1.1013
Thursday, August 16, 2007
EUR/USD - Limited out on short 1.3772 (on 8/15). Profit diff 287
GBP/USD - Limited out on short 2.0298 (on 8/15). Progit diff 399
USD/JPY - Got antsy on 8/16 and stopped my short 118.50. Profit diff 185
AUD/USD - Limited out on short 0.8568 (8/16). Profit diff 540.
USD/CAD - No change on long 1.0669, stop 1.0354, limit 1.1013. Same as usd/jpy
Sunday, August 12, 2007
GBP/USD - Moved stop on short 2.0298, stop 2.0632, limit 1.9899
USD/JPY - Moved stop on short 118.50, stop 120.63, limit 112.23. Moving close to an end and I need to watch it closely.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on short 0.8568, stop 0.8785, limit 0.8028
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0669, stop 1.0354, limit 1.1013. Same as usd/jpy
Monday, August 06, 2007
GBP/USD - Entered on short 2.0298, stop 2.0635, limit 1.9899
USD/JPY - Moved stop on short 118.50, stop 121.72, limit 112.23
USD/CHF - Stopped out on long 1.2043. Loss diff 144. I won't follow this pair.
AUD/USD - Entered on short 0.8568, stop 0.8871, limit 0.8028
USD/CAD - No change on long 1.0669, stop 1.0339, limit 1.1013
Thursday, August 02, 2007
GBP/USD - Watching
USD/JPY - No change on short 118.50, stop 122.76, limit 112.23
USD/CHF - No change on long 1.2043, stop 1.1889, limit 1.2507
AUD/USD - Watching. May enter short later
USD/CAD - No change on long 1.0669, stop 1.0339, limit 1.1013
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
GBP/USD - Daily is indicating long and weekly is indicating short. Watching
USD/JPY - No change on short 118.50, stop 122.76, limit 112.23
USD/CHF - Stopped out on long 1.2059. Loss diff 55. Switching to weekly chart. Entered on long 1.2043, stop 1.1889, limit 1.2507
AUD/USD - Acting just like gbp/usd. Watching
USD/CAD - No change on long 1.0669, stop 1.0339, limit 1.1013
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Monday, July 30, 2007
GBP/USD - Something looks odd about this... not sure what. If I had entered when the daily indicated, I'd be happy right now. As it is, it looks like this short will be short lived. Watching for now.
USD/JPY - Moved stop on short 118.50, stop 122.76, limit 112.23
USD/CHF - Moved stop on long 1.2059, stop 1.2004, limit 1.2185
AUD/USD - Acting like gbp/usd. Watching
USD/CAD - Entered on long 1.0669, stop 1.0339, limit 1.1013
Thursday, July 26, 2007
GBP/USD - Same pattern as the other day. Watching.
USD/JPY - Limited out on short 121.24. Profit diff 254. Entered on short 118.50, stop 123.66, limit 112.23
USD/CHF - Moved stop on long 1.2059, stop 1.1994, limit 1.2185
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Watching
USD/CAD - Stopped out on short 1.0564. Profit diff 92. Will start using weekly chart on this pair.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
GBP/USD - Daily is indicating short and weekly is saying a short is coming. Going to watch a bit more.
USD/JPY - No change on short 121.24, stop 123.67, limit 118.70
USD/CHF - Moved stop on long 1.2059, stop 1.1983, limit 1.2185
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Watching
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0472, limit 1.0335. Weekly indicates the short will end soon. Not so on the daily.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
GBP/USD - Watching
USD/JPY - No change on short 121.24, stop 123.67, limit 118.70
USD/CHF - Moved stop on long 1.2059, stop 1.1972, limit 1.2185
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Watching
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0482, limit 1.0335. Price is moving away from SAR. Limit was almost hit on last bar.
Monday, July 23, 2007
GBP/USD - Watching
USD/JPY - No change on short 121.24, stop 123.67, limit 118.70
USD/CHF - Moved stop on long 1.2059, stop 1.1968, limit 1.2185
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Watching
USD/CAD - No change on short 1.0564, stop 1.0495, limit 1.0335.
Sunday, July 22, 2007
GBP/USD - Watching
USD/JPY - Stopped out on long 122.55. Loss diff 125. Switching to a weekly chart. Entered short on 121.24, stop 123.67, limit 118.70. Original weekly signals would have had me entering anywhere around 123.12 - 123.80. So, I'm a little late entering based on this chart.
EUR/JPY - Stopped out on long 168.90. Loss diff 129. Will stop watching this pair.
USD/CHF - Entered on long 1.2059, stop 1.1963, limit 1.2185.
EUR/CHF - Switched to weekly chart. Watching.
AUD/USD - Watching. May switch to weekly chart.
USD/CAD - No change on short 1.0564, stop 1.0495, limit 1.0335. Price is getting very close to the stop. Which isn't happening on the weekly chart.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
GBP/USD - Watching. Looking like a short may be coming.
USD/JPY - No change on long 122.55, stop 121.30, limit 123.57
EUR/JPY - Moved stop on long 168.90, stop 167.61, limit 170.66
USD/CHF - Watching. Might go long on this in the morning.
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Yep, moved my stop too soon. Stopped out on short 1.8731. Loss diff of 79.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0507, limit 1.0335.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
GBP/USD - Watching
USD/JPY - No change on long 122.55, stop 121.30, limit 123.57
EUR/JPY - Moved stop on long 168.90, stop 167.44, limit 170.66
USD/CHF - Watching
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - No change on short 1.8731, stop 1.8810, limit 1.8533. Wondering if I moved my stop too soon.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0527, limit 1.0335.
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
EUR/USD - Moved stop on short 1.3772, stop 1.3875, limit 1.3485
GBP/USD - Stopped out on short 2.0290. Loss diff 129.
USD/JPY - No change on long 122.55, stop 121.30, limit 123.57
EUR/JPY - Moved stop on long 168.90, stop 167.24, limit 170.66
USD/CHF - Watching
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Entered short on 1.8731, stop 1.8810, limit 1.8533
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0550, limit 1.0335.
Monday, July 16, 2007
GBP/USD - No change on short 2.0290, stop 2.0419, limit 2.0142
USD/JPY - No change on long 122.55, stop 121.30, limit 123.57
EUR/JPY - Moved stop on long 168.90, stop 167.02, limit 170.66
USD/CHF - Watching
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Watching
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0570, limit 1.0335.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
GBP/USD - No change on short 2.0290, stop 2.0419, limit 2.0142
USD/JPY - Changed SAR from 0.5 to 0.02. Moved stop on long 122.55, stop 121.30, limit 123.57
EUR/JPY - Moved stop on long 168.90, stop 166.77, limit 170.66
USD/CHF - Watching
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Watching
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0593, limit 1.0335.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
GBP/USD - Entered short on 2.0290, stop 2.0419, limit 2.0142
USD/JPY - Entered long on 122.55, stop 120.98, limit 123.57
EUR/JPY - Entered long on 168.90, stop 166.51, limit 170.66
USD/CHF - Watching
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Watching
USD/CAD - No change on short 1.0564, stop 1.0610, limit 1.0335.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
GBP/USD - Watching. Moved SAR from 0.08 to 0.02
USD/JPY - Watching
EUR/JPY - Ignoring for now
USD/CHF - Watching. Moved SAR from 0.05 to 0.02
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Limited out on long 0.8586. Profit diff 60
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0625, limit 1.0335.
Update: they found the issue with eur/jpy. There was a spike that showed up in both money and demo servers. They only cleared the money server. They did mention that they are looking at why this happened. My question at this point is would they have paid out if I was going short? Would I have taken a loss if going long? Worrisome.
Monday, July 09, 2007
GBP/USD - Watching.
USD/JPY - Watching.
EUR/JPY - Ignoring for now.
USD/CHF - Watching.
EUR/CHF - Watching.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8586, stop 0.8523, limit 0.8627 (x1/2 ATR).
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0645, limit 1.0335.
GBP/USD - Watching.
USD/JPY - Watching.
EUR/JPY - This is starting to look like a demo only issue.
USD/CHF - Watching.
EUR/CHF - Watching.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8586, stop 0.8494, limit 0.8627 (x1/2 ATR).
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0669, limit 1.0335.
Thursday, July 05, 2007
GBP/USD - Stopped out on long 2.0187. Loss diff 65. I'm thinking that the when the SAR flipped on the 6/27 bar that it indicated that the trend would end soon. And that I should not have entered again after taking profit on 7/2. EUR/USD will most likely follow suit. I'll keep the EUR/USD position open to test that.
USD/JPY - Watching.
EUR/JPY - Still no resolution on the screwed up price showing in the chart.
USD/CHF - Stopped out on short 1.2107. Loss diff 86. I'm thinking this is similar to gbp/usd in that the SAR reversing for a bar or two was a sign that the trend would be ending soon. Not sure of that. Think my limits were too far out.
EUR/CHF - Watching.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8586, stop 0.8470, limit 0.8627 (x1/2 ATR).
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0686, limit 1.0335.
I'm planning on looking at the weekly and monthly charts as well. In looking at those charts I noticed that while my positions would tie me up for a very long time, it wasn't anywhere as choppy.
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
GBP/USD - Moved stop on long 2.0187, stop 2.0122, limit 2.0251. SAR is kinda close to the price.
USD/JPY - Watching. SAR indicates short, but it is in the price.
EUR/JPY - The fix indicated on the LiteForex BB (right click -> refresh) didn't work. Waiting on response. Note, I'd be calling them up if this was a money account. So I'm not expecting a fast turnaround.
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2107, stop 1.2193, limit 1.1902 (x3 ATR). The SAR is close to the price on this as well.
EUR/CHF - Was able to move the stop to 1.6556 last night, but was stopped out. Loss diff on short 1.6492 was 64. I'm thinking the last major move was all there was. I'll watch it for a few more bars to determine if I should pull my SAR out further or bring it back in. As it stands SAR is indicating long but 13 day disagrees and both 5 and 8 day are in the price.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8586, stop 0.8439, limit 0.8627 (x1/2 ATR).
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0698, limit 1.0335.
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
GBP/USD - Moved stop on long 2.0187, stop 2.0067, limit 2.0251.
USD/JPY - Watching.
EUR/JPY - Chart is still screwed up on this pair. Left a note on the LiteForex BB.
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2107, stop 1.2248, limit 1.1902 (x3 ATR).
EUR/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.6492, stop 1.6561, limit 1.6407. Wanted to move stop to 1.6556, but price is too close.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8586, stop 0.8418, limit 0.8627 (x1/2 ATR).
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0564, stop 1.0711, limit 1.0335.
Monday, July 02, 2007
GBP/USD - Limited out on long 2.0086. Profit diff 68. SAR moderate distance and the Alligator is away from the price. Entered long on 2.0187, stop 2.0008, limit 2.0251.
USD/JPY - Alligator is still in price. Watching.
EUR/JPY - The 7/2 bar did the same thing as with CMS FX. The 7/2 bar's low is reporting 92.37. This screws the whole chart up. This bothers me a great deal.
USD/CHF - Price is zipping down. Not sure if I should enter. Watching. Based on what I found out with eur/chf, I'll try moving my SAR out on this pair as well. Old SAR was 0.08. New SAR is 0.05. This may be silly, but I'm going to try it. Entered short on 1.2107, stop 1.2333, limit 1.1902 (x3 ATR). I picked x3 ATR for the limit as usd/chf's ATR tends to run higher than eur/chf. Really think that is too much of a limit, but looking at the weekly charts it looks like the trend it down.
EUR/CHF - Switched to short sometime today. Interesting. If I enter a short now, the limit would be 1.6407. One less than the limit I tried last week. This tells me that my SAR of 0.08 might be too close. I'll try a SAR of 0.05. Entered short on 1.6492, stop 1.6572, limit 1.6407.
AUD/USD - Not sure about this but want to test. Entered long on 0.8586, stop 0.8393, limit 0.8627 (x1/2 ATR). 5 & 8 day are away from the price but close enough to warrant the x1/2 ATR. Seems the issue is if the 8 & 13 day are in the price. If I had entered on the 6/29 bar, I could have limited out on a x1.75 ATR (60 at the time).
USD/CAD - Alligator is out of the price but tight. That indicates a x1.5 ATR limit. Entered short on 1.0564, stop 1.0724, limit 1.0335.
Sunday, July 01, 2007
GBP/USD - Limited out on long 2.0024. Profit diff of 46. Entered again long on 2.0086, stop 1.9953, limit 2.0154
USD/JPY & EUR/JPY - Watching.
USD/CHF - Yep, was a pull back. But I ignored the market the other day and missed going short again. Watching.
EUR/CHF - Hmm, this hasn't shown short yet.
AUD/USD - Watching.
USD/CAD - Watching.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
EUR/USD - Still deciding which way to go.
GBP/USD - Entered on long 2.0024, stop 1.9928, limit 2.0070
USD/JPY & EUR/JPY - Watching.
USD/CHF - Stopped out on short 1.2285. Loss diff 32. I entered after the price was done moving. Watching as I don't know if this is just a pull back.
EUR/CHF - Stopped out on short 1.6542. Loss diff 13. Same as usd/chf, I entered after the price was done.
AUD/USD - Looking again at my last loss on this pair. It wasn't that the 5 & 8 days were close, it was that the 5 day was running through the bars. Watching.
USD/CAD - Stopped out on long 1.0743. Loss diff 74. Same as the ones above, the Alligator was running through the price bars. Needs to be away from the bars.
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
USD/JPY & EUR/JPY - Could have had a profit with a tight limited short. I think these are in the middle of a pull back and not a reverse
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2285, stop 1.2317, limit 1.2223. At this point, the major move was on the 6/22 bar. Price has moved sideways since then.
EUR/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.6542, stop 1.6555, limit 1.6408. Wanted to move stop to 0.6554, but the price was too close.
AUD/USD - Stopped out on long 0.8426. Profit diff 19. Looking at my notes I have a 1/2 ATR limit if the 5 & 8 days are close. They weren't on 6/18, but they were a few bars before. Need to stop being so sloppy.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0743, stop 1.0669, limit 1.0879.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
USD/JPY & EUR/JPY - SAR is indicating short. Alligator is indicating long. I think this may be nothing but a pull back before the long continues. Watching
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2285, stop 1.2356, limit 1.2223.
EUR/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.6542, stop 1.6596, limit 1.6408.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8445 (wanted 0.8449 but price is too close). limit 0.8525.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0743, stop 1.0665, limit 1.0879.
Monday, June 25, 2007
USD/JPY - Stopped out on 123.76. Loss diff of 34. Watching.
EUR/JPY - Limited out. Profit diff 98. 13 day is shifting away from the 5 & 8. In the past this means a pull back. Watching.
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2285, stop 1.2421, limit 1.2223.
EUR/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.6542, stop 1.6637, limit 1.6408.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8442. limit 0.8525.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0743, stop 1.0651, limit 1.0879.
Sunday, June 24, 2007
USD/JPY - Moved stop on long123.76, stop 123.42, limit 124.34 (1 atr)
EUR/JPY - Still not sure if I should enter again. Price is near it's high. Had I entered, I would set my limit to 167.95. Also, had I entered at the start of this uptrend, I would have taken profit twice on 1 ATR limits. This makes me think a pull back will be coming. Then again, I could be watching a good trade come and go. Ehh.
Update: Entered long 165.68, stop 164.35, limit 166.66.
USD/CHF - Price hasn't pulled back but this looks like a good trade. Entered on short 1.2285, stop 1.2424, limit 1.2223.
EUR/CHF - Limited out. Profit diff 30. Missread my notes. The 1 ATR limit is when the 13 day is close to the price, not against the direction. Should have been a 3.5 ATR. Entered on short 1.6542, stop 1.6645, limit 1.6408.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8417. limit 0.8525
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0743, stop 1.0636, limit 1.0879 (1.5 ATR)
Thursday, June 21, 2007
GBP/USD - Watching. Not showing eur/usd's pullpack yet
USD/JPY - Entered long on 123.76, stop 123.10, limit 124.34 (1 atr)
EUR/JPY - Entered long on 165.68, stop 164.35, limit 166.66 (1 atr). Update: Limited out. Profit diff of 98. I would re-enter, but the price is at its high.
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2390, stop 1.2431, limit 1.2344. This is looking like it will stop out. Seems a one ATR limit when the 13 day is against is too much. Looks like .75 would have worked. Update: How strange. Price shot down overnight and I hit my limit. Profit diff 46. SAR is too close on this bar to enter another short.
EUR/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.6588, stop 1.6665, limit 1.6408. Update: I just realized that the limit I set was for when the 13 day was going in the right direction (x3.5). That wasn't the case and I changed my limit to 1.6558.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8394. limit 0.8525
USD/CAD -
Limited out. Profit diff of 81.
Entered long 1.0743, stop 1.0618, limit 1.0879 (1.5 ATR as 5 & 8 day lines are close)
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
GBP/USD - Watching
USD/JPY - Watching
EUR/JPY - Watching
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2390, stop 1.2443, limit 1.2344
EUR/CHF - A chance to see if my limit ideas work here. Entered short 1.6588, stop 1.6672, limit 1.6408.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8376. limit 0.8525
USD/CAD - No Change on long 1.0671, stop 1.0614, limit 1.0752.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
EUR/USD - Price looks like it is trying to reverse. It looks like I could have hit a profit if I had entered on the 6/15 bar. At that point the 5 and 8 day lines had moved significantly away from each other. That may be the key indicator.
USD/JPY - The 6/14 bar was the start of this uptrend. On that day the SAR was moderately close and the Alligator was tightly bunched. By the 6/19 bar the 5 day had moved away from the other lines. But the price looks to have stalled on that bar. Not sure if there will be a pull back very soon.
GBP/USD - Very much the same activity as eur/usd. However, the price didn't go up as far. But it looks like it wants to continue upwards.
EUR/JPY - Similar to eur/usd as well. Where the 5 day bowed down a good deal on the 6/15 and 6/18 bar. But at that point the price had already shot up a good deal. The best time to have entered was on the 6/14 bar. At that point the SAR looked good (but I've been burned on that before) but the Alligator was tight. So there was no clear sign with the signals I'm using.
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2390, stop 1.2460, limit 1.2344
EUR/CHF - The 13 day seems to hold more weight on this one. When it is away from the 5 and 8 days the signals look to be good.
AUD/USD -
Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8355. limit 0.8525
Thought about my loser the other day. I should have entered with a 1.75 ATR limit on the first position. I entered with a one ATR limit and then entered another position with a one ATR limit. If I had entered the first position correctly, I would not have entered the second. As the price was starting to act like a reversal was coming at that point.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0671, stop 1.0614, limit 1.0752. This is looking like it will stop out. Think my mistake on this one was entering with a SAR that was so close. Normally a good entry SAR is a bit away from the price
Monday, June 18, 2007
EUR/USD - Alligator is wide but is pointing the opposite direction that the price is going. I'm going to look into trading this and gbp/usd when the SAR and Alligator are in agreement.
USD/JPY - Only the 5 day is moving away from the other lines. Watching.
GBP/USD - Same deal as eur/usd.
EUR/JPY - Watching.
USD/CHF - Entered short 1.2390, stop 1.2466, limit 1.2344
EUR/CHF - Watching.
AUD/USD -
Stoped out on short 0.8353. Loss diff 76
Moved stop on long 0.8426, stop 0.8339. limit 0.8525
USD/CAD - No change on long 1.0671, stop 1.0602, limit 1.0752
Sunday, June 17, 2007
EUR/USD - Yeah, a .80 or a .75 ATR for limits on this pair. Stopped out on short 1.3351. Loss diff 15
USD/JPY - Alligator is still tight even though it is moving up well.
GBP/USD - Same deal as eur/usd. Need a .75 or .8 ATR limit. Stopped out on short 1.9675. Loss diff 106
EUR/JPY - Alligator is open but is indicating a short while the price shoots up. Watching.
USD/CHF - Looks like a short will be signaled in the morning. Price didn't hit 1.2494.
EUR/CHF - Looks like it wants to continue up.
AUD/USD - Looks like entering a second was incorrect. SAR has flipped and I would have offset but LiteForex won't let me. "Order too close to market". Guess I'll let it stop out then.
Waiting for short 0.8353, stop 0.8429, limit 0.8276 to die.
Entered long 0.8426, stop 0.8332. limit 0.8525
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0671, stop 1.0602, limit 1.0752
Thursday, June 14, 2007
USD/JPY - Waiting for the Alligator to open up.
GBP/USD - Moved stop on short 1.9675, stop 1.9781, limit 1.9603
EUR/JPY - Yep, stopped out. Loss diff 164. Waiting for the Alligator to open up.
USD/CHF - Price still hasn't hit 1.2494. Watching
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Limit hit. Profit diff 63. Hmm, seems I used one ATR when I should have used two. Question now is, should I enter with two ATR limit or one? Think I'll try one. Entered short 0.8353, stop 0.8429, limit 0.8276
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0671, stop 1.0599, limit 1.0752
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
EUR/USD - Was four points away from stopping on the last bar. Moved stop on short 1.3351, stop 1.3403, limit 1.3257
USD/JPY - Glad I didn't enter. The price shot up through the SAR point. Not going to touch this until the Alligator opens up.
GBP/USD - Moved stop on short 1.9675, stop 1.9811, limit 1.9603
EUR/JPY -
This is probably going to stop out. I think the usd/jpy rule applies with this pair. I'm not going to enter second position, in the same direction, after limiting out if the first position didn't agree with the Alligator.
Moved stop on short 161.71, stop 163.35, limit 160.95
USD/CHF - Price still hasn't hit 1.2494. Watching
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Moved stop on short 0.8410, stop 0.8451, limit 0.8347.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on long 1.0671, stop 1.0587, limit 1.0752
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
EUR/USD - Moved stop on short 1.3351, stop 1.3453, limit 1.3257
USD/JPY - Alligator is still all bunched up but SAR is now showing short. Watching
GBP/USD - Not looking great. Moved stop and limit on short 1.9675, stop 1.9847, limit 1.9603
EUR/JPY -
Limit hit, profit diff 99.
Entered short 161.71, stop 163.69, limit 160.95
USD/CHF - Hmm, should have entered. Would have set limit for 1.2494. Watching
EUR/CHF - Watching
AUD/USD - Entered short 0.8410, stop 0.8463, limit 0.8347.
USD/CAD - Entered long 1.0671, stop 1.0575, limit 1.0752
Monday, June 11, 2007
USD/JPY - Alligator is all bunched up but SAR is indicating long. Watching
GBP/USD - Moved stop on short 1.9675, stop 1.9891, limit 1.9531
EUR/JPY - Moved stop on short 162.52, stop 163.92, limit 161.53. Price action forming a triangle.
USD/CHF and EUR/CHF - Price continues upwards, but isn't near the limit that would have been set if I entered.
AUD/USD - Watching
USD/CAD - May be getting ready for a short.
Sunday, June 10, 2007
USD/JPY - Alligator is all bunched up but SAR is indicating long. Watching
GBP/USD - Entered short on 1.9675, stop 1.9942, limit 1.9531
EUR/JPY - Moved stop on short 162.52, stop 164.18, limit 161.53
USD/CHF - Presently looks like an exaggerated version of eur/chf.
EUR/CHF -
Stopped out on 1.6467. Loss diff of 35.
Not sure what to make of it right now. SAR is indicating up but Alligator doesn't agree.
AUD/USD - SAR is again indicating short. But I don't think so.
USD/CAD - SAR is indicating up but Alligator doesn't agree. Watching
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Update:
Real tempted to drop all the very volatile pairs.
I've noticed, and been able to catch with a close limit, some SAR indicated pull backs. But it is starting to look like I fail as often as succeed. The indicators might be good for where the price is headed over a given week, but the pull backs stop me out. That is even with setting the SAR far from the price.
EUR/USD -
Large reverse stopped me out. Price is through the SAR point. It'll flip over in the morning.
Stopped out on long 1.3517. Loss diff 86.
Watching for now. Tempted to go short, but both this pair and GBP/USD have been giving me fits recently. Might just drop them if this continues.
Update:
A short last night would have hit limit successfully. Huge drop in price.
USD/JPY -
Moved stop on short 120.96 to 121.56, limit 120.33
Update:
Stopped out on short 120.96. Loss diff 60.
No indication of pull back. This might be another one where I set one position and wait until a reverse comes before taking another one.
GBP/USD -
I was correct, the price did pull back.
Also, this pair is like an exaggerated version of EUR/USD. Should look at both to get an idea of how they both will move.
I think there may be a good short coming up but both EUR/USD and this pair are starting to irritate me.
Update:
A short last night would have hit limit successfully. Huge drop in price.
EUR/JPY -
Limit hit on short 163.31. Profit diff 83.
Entered follow-on short 162.52, stop 164.47, limit 161.53
Update:
Not sure if I should offset now with no loss or wait it out. I'll wait it out for now.
USD/CHF -
Moved stop on short 1.2180 to 1.2288, limit 1.2124
Not looking good... this might be another take a profit and wait for the reverse pair. But, EUR/CHF is looking ok.
Update:
Huge reverse.
Stopped out on short 1.2180. Loss diff 87.
EUR/CHF -
Moved stop on short 1.6467 to 1.6502, limit 1.6405
Update:
Large reverse. Will most likely be stopped out. Should offset, but I'm trying to determine if I should stop watching some pairs.
AUD/USD -
Price was backtracking in the morning and I left it alone. SAR is even closer and I'll continue to watch.
Update:
SAR has flipped to the short side. Tempted to go short. But I'm a bit uncertain based on how strong the Alligator is indicating a long.
USD/CAD -
And I stopped out on short at 1.0608. Loss diff of 29.
Reasonable loss.... think I may have got this pair figured....a bit.
Alligator shows stong downtrend and SAR, while showing uptrend, is very close to the price action. I'll check again in the morning.
Update:
Moved up pretty good overnight, but has pulled halfway back. Still watching.
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
USD/JPY shows the direction that EUR/JPY will take.
Also, don't enter USD/JPY when 5 day is in the price action.
I'm also thinking that a tight limit on pairs where the Alligator doesn't agree with the SAR gets around the issue where a few pairs do most of their moving in the wee hours.
EUR/USD -
Limit hit on long 1.3492. Profit diff 31.
Entered long 1.3517, stop 1.3413, limit 1.3611 on 6/5 and moved stop to 1.3431 today.
USD/JPY -
Stopped out on long 122.02. Loss diff of 47.
Entered short 120.96, stop 121.92, limit 120.33
I'm using a full ATR here. Seems the big issue is when the 5 day is in the price action.
GBP/USD - Priceline didn't move between 6/5 and 6/6 bars. This seems to mean the price is going to pull back again. Alligator is still very tight.
EUR/JPY -
Should have known that USD/JPY leads this by a day or so.
Considering the price is very near the new bar's SAR and that USD/JPY is showing short, I will offset.
Offset 163.69. Loss diff of 35.
No short SAR on this pair yet. Will check again in the morning.
Update:
Well, that was quick. Checked in at 10pm to see how things were going and saw the SAR had flipped over to short.
Entered short 163.31, stop 164.59, limit 162.48
Using full ATR on limit for this pair.
USD/CHF -
Entered short 1.2180, stop 1.2315, limit 1.2124 on 6/6 bar and moved stop to 1.2288 today
EUR/CHF -
Entered short 1.6467, stop 1.6549, limit 1.6405 on 6/6 bar and moved stop to 1.6529 today
AUD/USD -
Entered long 0.8376, stop 0.8286, limit 0.8430 on 6/6.
It hit its limit this morning. Profit diff 54.
Entered long 0.8430, stop 0.8286, limit 0.8454 this morning. Moved stop to 0.8336 just now.
Alligator widening up.
Update:
Limit hit on 0.8430. Profit offset of 24.
Didn't re-enter at 10pm. SAR is 63 below the current low, which is the size of one grid box currently. The SAR pattern from the start of this uptrend is hard to figure. I've seen one instance where it isn't too close and the price continues on and 3-4 instances where the price pulls back enough that the SAR will flip to the short side before continuing up.
Will reassess in the morning
USD/CAD -
Moved stop on short at 1.0608 to 1.0637, limit 1.0135.
SAR is tight to price, but it seems to do that on this pair. Alligator is wide and showing good downtrend.
Monday, June 04, 2007
EUR/USD -
Projected Alligator indicates a long and SAR agrees. Current Alligator is still showing short.
I'll enter with a one ATR limit.
Entered long 1.3492, stop 1.3392, limit 1.3523 (subtracted spread)
Trying something a little different. Took the ATR of the last bar as the current bar is unformed and based the limit off of the high of the 6/1 bar (two back).
This might be too conservative, but I've been pretty loose for the past month.
USD/JPY -
Moved stop on long 122.02 to 121.55, and limit 122.33.
SAR and 5 day are very close to the price. I'm not at all sure this was a good entry.
Maybe set the limit to half the ATR when the Alligator doesn't look so good on this pair?
GBP/USD - Alligator is tightly intertwined, but SAR is good. If I set a limit based on one ATR, it would have been hit already. I think I'm going to wait until the Alligator isn't so intertwined.
EUR/JPY -
Moved stop on 163.69 to 162.76, limit 165.01.
Wondering if this pair needs the half ATR for when the 5 and 8 days are so close.
USD/CHF - Watching. Looks like it wants to go short.
EUR/CHF - Watching. Looks like it wants to go short.
AUD/USD - Ignored this morning due to the Alligator showing short. Think it is going strong long. May enter in the morning.
USD/CAD -
Limit hit on 1.0829. Profit diff of 235.
Moved stop on short at 1.0608 to 1.0709, limit 1.0135.
Friday, June 01, 2007
My usd/cad limit is for 1.0598 and the low today was 1.0595. Liteforex offers a 4pt spread on that pair. I'll move my limits accordingly.
I may look into close limits for cases where the SAR, Alligator, and ATR are not in agreement. I mentioned this before, but have not had time to look into it.
USD/CHF is another pair who's action moves strongly in the morning and positions shouldn't be moved/modified in the evening.
EUR/USD - Watching. SAR and Alligator aren't in agreement. But ATR is rising.
USD/JPY -
Watching. 5 day is still running close and there is a slight rise in ATR. Might be good for long on Sunday or Monday.
Update:
Entered long 122.02, stop 121.44, and limit 122.33.
GBP/USD - Watching. Alligator is tightly intertwined, but SAR is good. Also, price is moving contrary to the priceline. For this pair, that is a bad sign.
EUR/JPY - I'll move stop and limit on Sunday at market open. Limit will be moved to 165.01 to take into account what I learned about LiteForex and its limits. Presently no change on long 163.69. stop 162.48, and limit 165.05.
Update:
Moved stop and limit on 163.69. Stop to 162.57 and limit to 165.01.
5 and 8 day are still intertwined.
USD/CHF -
There was a tremendus upsurge in price in the morning.
Stopped out on short 1.2250. Loss diff of 51.
Limit needs to be modified for when the Alligator isn't in agreement with SAR. Like maybe a 1/2 ATR.
EUR/CHF - This reversed strongly like USD/CHF. The full ATR limit would have worked on this pair though.
AUD/USD - Price is continuing strongly upwards. Might be worth a look Monday morning.
USD/CAD -
Price hit a low of 1.0595. This confirms my suspicion that the price must go past the limit by the amount of the spread before it activates with LiteForex.
Will move limit to 1.0594 at market open on Sunday.
At present it looks like it will continue down strongly though.
Update:
Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0762, limit 1.0594.
Considering that this pair should have limited out on Friday, I'll enter another short.
Entered short at 1.0608, stop 1.0762, limit 1.0135 (139 before subtracting the spread).
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Testing out this and that on the fly is all well and good, but when I look back and see the losses from these tests it's hard not to question the underlying system. Such questioning tends to lead to major overhauls in an attempt to fix something that wasn't broken.
EUR/USD - Watching
USD/JPY - Watching
GBP/USD - Watching
EUR/JPY - Moved stop on long 163.69 to 162.48, and limit 165.05.
USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2250 to 1.2301, and limit 1.2203.
EUR/CHF - Hmmm, SAR is presently very close to the new bar. But is was pretty close before.
AUD/USD -
Interesting. The SAR point that was sitting in the upper portion of the 5/29 bar was under it when I checked in the morning (as it is now). Hmmm
This is looking like it might be a good long, but I think I missed the boat.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0820, limit 1.0598.
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
EUR/USD -
Or it can continue down today. The closeness of the 5 day to the price and the low ATR put me off entering, regardless of the nice short SAR signals.
USD/JPY -
5 day continues to hang near the price and SAR is pretty close as well. Looks like the Alligator wants to intertwine.
GBP/USD -
SAR is indicating good shorts but the Alligator is all intertwined and the ATR is low.
Projected Alligator is showing the beginnings of a short, but the other signals put me off.
EUR/JPY -
Moved stop on 163.69 to 162.38, and limit 165.05.
13 day is pretty close to the price action. I'm thinking that this pair should have a limit that is smaller when that is so.
Not sure about the entry on my 163.69 order.
USD/CHF -
Moved stop on 1.2250 to 1.2310, and limit 1.2203.
EUR/CHF -
Yeah, I'm thinking I got out early. But the signals are still a little weird.
I'm thinking that maybe I shouldn't enter a pair if the ATR is below a certain level. Need to look into that.
AUD/USD -
Price looks to move much more overnight. I think I should enter or modify orders in the morning on this one. Also, I won't enter or modify orders on unformed bars.
Price zipped through my stop this morning. Unless I move my SAR far away from the price on this pair, the price will occasionally go through the SAR. It doesn't move to show a reversal, just hangs out in the price action.
Stopped out on short 0.8175. Loss diff of 36.
Alligator is pretty tight at present. I'll check again in the morning.
USD/CAD -
Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0866, limit 1.0598.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
I think I may tinker with the ATR length. I'm using the default of 14 periods presently.
Also, on a number of pairs it is *critical* to get in when the SAR reverses. The problem with that is if the Alligator isn't confirming the SAR, the price is just zipping around. Which leads back into limits.
Update:
Tinkering with limits --
aud/usd: Wait for second SAR when entering on reversal. Enter on next bar when re-entering after limit hit. When 13 day is against and/or 5 & 8 day are very close, x1? When 13 day is confirming, x4.5?
usd/cad: x1.5 ATR when 13 day is against and 5 and 8 day are close? x6 ATR when the 13 day confirms? Problem with the x6 is when there is a strong pull back. Accept the loss in light of the gains? Perhaps wait until the start of the second period after the one that hit the limit before entering? With the new limit based off of the period that hit the limit?
EUR/USD -
Should have trusted my instincts.
Stopped out on short 1.3454. Loss diff of 16.
SAR is indicating long but the 13 day is out wide from the price.
Generally, the Alligator is wider if a reversal is in the works. Price may continue down in a day or two.
USD/JPY - Watching.
GBP/USD -
Again, I should have trusted my instincts. I'm thinking if the priceline reverses for three periods on this pair, I'll offset.
Stopped out on long at 1.9865. Loss diff of 74.
EUR/JPY -
Moved stop on 163.69 to 162.27, and limit 165.05.
Alligator is pretty tight on the 5 and 8 day lines. hmmm
USD/CHF -
Two periods where the SAR showed good short and Alligator confirms. ATR is pretty low though.
Entered short at 1.2250, stop 1.2319, and limit 1.2203.
EUR/CHF -
Not sure what to think here. Alligator and SAR are showing good for short. Last period's SAR was very close. All signs said to get out. Now it looks like the short is going to continue.
Hmmm.
Thing is, I've seen a SAR point early in a period indicate one thing and by the end of the period indicate the opposite.
Watching.
AUD/USD -
Moved stop on short 0.8175 to 0.8211.
Update:
Based on what I figured for limits on this pair I should offset. But, on a whim, I'm trying to set the limit from when I entered as opposed to when the SAR indicated the trend started. So -
Short 0.8175, stop 0.8211, limit 0.8118.
USD/CAD -
Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0828.
Update:
Set limit to 1.0598. Also will set stops on SAR. So -
Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0913, limit 1.0598.
Monday, May 28, 2007
Moved stop on short 1.3454 to 1.3470 (limit 1.3270).
SAR and 5 day is very close to the price and ATR is low. Makes me think I should offset, but I'll hang on.
USD/JPY - Same as the other day... mixed signals. Watching.
GBP/USD -
Not sure what to think here. Alligator is acting like it wants to form a short. SAR is away from the price and looks ok for a long. Priceline has been moving down for the last 3 bars.
I'm tempted to move my stop up to the 5 day, but that is *very* close to the price action.
I think I'll keep my current stop and see what happens.
No change on long at 1.9865, stop 1.9791.
EUR/JPY -
SAR signaled a good long.
Entered long at 163.69, stop 162.16, and limit 165.05.
I'm going to test not subtracting the spread (4) from the limit.
USD/CHF - Watching.
EUR/CHF -
Moved stop on short 1.6520 to 1.6534. Alligator indicates it should be 1.6530. but the price is too close.
I'm thinking I need to set limits on this pair as well. Maybe just the ATR when the 13 day is close to the price activity and x3.5 when the 13 day is >= 85 pts away.
Will also use SAR for stops.
Yeah, when the SAR is this close to the price it always pulls back or reverses. It would have hit its limit already as well.
Offset short 1.6520 at 1.6524. Loss diff of 4.
AUD/USD -
Will start using SAR for stops.
Moved stop on short 0.8175 to 0.8227.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0852.
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Friday, May 25, 2007
So, to avoid the risk of my limit not being hit I'll subtract the spread from whatever I set my limit to.
EUR/USD -
I'll need to move my limit up to 1.3270 when the markets open on Sunday (LiteForex disables the placement/modification of trades when the market is closed).
Moved stop on short 1.3454 to 1.3500 (limit 1.3267).
Update:
Moved stop on short 1.3454 to 1.3471 (limit 1.3270).
USD/JPY -
SAR is indicating a long, but the ATR is low and the 5 day Aligator line is running very close to the price.
Watching.
GBP/USD -
No change on long at 1.9865, stop 1.9757.
Update:
Moved stop on long 1.9865 to 1.9791
EUR/JPY -
Limit hit - short at 162.97 at 162.49. Profit diff of 48.
This was pretty neat. The low of today's bar dropped pretty far and did hit my limit. But the price closed pretty high. The Alligator's projection is indicating the price may still continue up based on that jump even if the SAR still indicates short.
So, I learned two things: 1) was still able to take profit from what may turn out to have been a false short signal and 2) a low ATR may indeed indicate that the signal is false.
Question: if I can still take a profit on this pair on false signals, should I go ahead and enter in order to snag a wee bit more?
USD/CHF - Watching. Alligator looks like it wants to form a short. SAR is still indicating long, but is running close to the lows.
EUR/CHF -
No change on short 1.6520, stop 1.6557.
Update:
Moved stop on short 1.6520 to 1.6548.
AUD/USD - Moved stop on short 0.8175 to 0.8247.
USD/CAD -
No change on short 1.0829, stop 1.0907.
Update:
Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0874.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
EUR/USD - Moved stop on short 1.3454 to 1.3504 (limit 1.3267).
USD/JPY - Watching
GBP/USD - No change on long at 1.9865, stop 1.9757.
EUR/JPY -
Entered short at 162.97, stop 164.00, limit 162.49.
Question: Should I enter when the ATR is low?
USD/CHF - Watching
EUR/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.6520 to 1.6557.
AUD/USD - Entered short at 0.8175, stop 0.8266.
USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0907.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Alligator appears to widen before a reverse. Also, the closer the lows (for shorts) of the periods run to the 5 day, the more likely a reverse or pull back will happen. Trend is strongest when the 5 day is far away from the bars.
I think I'll set my stops to the 5 day.
Need to look at the Alligator methods if I'm going to do it this way. Maybe switch them all back to Linear Weighted.
EUR/USD -
Entered short at 1.3454, stop 1.3507.
Update:
Changed SAR to 0.0646 and Alligator's method to simple.
Think I won't base stops off of the Alligator on this one, I'll use the SAR.
Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR x3.25 to the last period's high (for longs).
Setting limit on short 1.3454 to 1.3267 (based on when the SAR indicated that I should have entered (5/17)). Also moved stop down to 1.3504.
So, one of three things will happen:
- stop is hit
- SAR point drops below the bar
- limit is hit
USD/JPY -
Moved stop on long 120.82 to 120.95.
Update:
Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to simple.
Think I won't base stops off of the Alligator on this one, I'll use the SAR.
Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR to the last period's high (for longs).
And as that would have been hit already, I'll offset.
Offset long 120.82 at 121.53. Profit diff of 71.
GBP/USD -
Moved stop on short 1.9797, stop 1.9896 yesterday.
Then this morning the price reversed and knocked me out.
Short 1.9797 stopped out (1.9896) - loss diff of 99
Entered long at 1.9865, stop 1.9757.
Update:
Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to exponential.
Stops will start with Alligator and switch to SAR when it gets closer.
Also, this pair's priceline is telling. A good trend will have a priceline that moves strongly in the trend's direction with a little or no reversal. A bad trend's priceline will whipsaw.
EUR/JPY -
Moved stop on long 163.46 to 163.23.
Update:
Changed SAR to 0.053 and Alligator's method to simple.
Will set stops and offset on SAR.
Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR x1.5 to the last period's high (for longs).
And as that would have been hit already, I'll offset.
Offset long 163.46 at 163.47. Profit diff of 1.
USD/CHF -
Moved stop -- long 1.2229 to 1.2237.
Moved stop -- long 1.2230 to 1.2237.
Update:
Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to linear weighted.
Think I won't base stops off of the Alligator on this one. I think I'll use the SAR.
Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR to the last period's high (for longs).
And as that would have been hit already and that the price line is about to hit the 5 day, I'll offset both positions.
Offset long 1.2229 at 1.2275. Profit diff of 46.
Offset long 1.2230 at 1.2275. Profit diff of 45.
As this pair is looking like it is tring to decide if it wants to reverse, I'll sit back and watch.
EUR/CHF -
Price line hit 5 day.
Offset short 1.6557 at 1.6520. Loss diff of 37.
Entered short at 1.6520, stop 1.6559.
Update: Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to exponential.
AUD/USD -
Watching
Update: Changed SAR to 0.06 and Alligator's method to smoothed.
USD/CAD -
Update: Changed SAR to 0.0625 and Alligator's method to linear weighted.
SAR is well away from the price and Alligator is not tangled.
Entered short at 1.0829, stop 1.0938.
I may have entered late on this one, but I wanted to test it out.
Monday, May 21, 2007
SAR and Heiken are indicating down but Alligator is intertwined.
However, the Alligator is showing signs that it is trying to form a short signal.
Might enter on a pull back.
Question: if the Alligator is only intertwined because it is in the process of forming the opposite direction, should I enter when the SAR and Heiken show the way? I would have gotten in much sooner on this downtrend.
USD/JPY -
Moved stop on long 120.82 to 119.74.
Update - 5/21 6:15pm EST - Moved stop on long 120.82 to 119.76.
GBP/USD -
No change in stop -- short 1.9797, stop 1.9926.
Alligator is widening.
Update - 5/21 6:17pm EST - Moved stop on short 1.9797 to 1.9909.
EUR/JPY -
Everything looks good on a long. But the SAR is too close to the price (which indicates that a pull back might happen). There was one pullback already on the 5/18 bar which hit the SAR. But if I'm setting stops on the 13 day line of the Alligator, it shouldn't be a problem.
Hmm, this might not be wise, but
Entered long at 163.46, stop 161.54.
Update - 5/21 6:19pm EST - Moved stop on long 163.46 to 161.55.
USD/CHF -
Moved stop -- long 1.2229 to 1.2107.
Long at 1.2230, stop 1.2138.
Update - 5/21 6:20pm EST - Moved stop on long 1.2229 to 1.2115.
EUR/CHF -
Entered long at 1.6557, stop 1.6415.
Update - 5/21 6:22pm EST - Moved stop on long 1.2229 to 1.2118.
AUD/USD - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.
USD/CAD -
5 and 8 day are not still intertwined and moving apart. Seems the main thing is the 13 day was away from the 5 and 8 day and still pointing down.
Might enter short on a pullback.
EUR/GBP -
5 day hit price line and I offsetted my long 0.6849 at 0.6824. Loss diff of 25 (which is really double on this pair).
I'm going to have to stop watching this pair. The patterns for the nice trends look the same at the start as the large whipsaws that have been going on for the past month.
This pair works much better on the 4 hour chart with my system.
Oh well.