Overall, I think I've been too eager to enter positions the past week or two. I need to tone that down a bit.

Testing out this and that on the fly is all well and good, but when I look back and see the losses from these tests it's hard not to question the underlying system. Such questioning tends to lead to major overhauls in an attempt to fix something that wasn't broken.

EUR/USD - Watching

USD/JPY - Watching

GBP/USD - Watching

EUR/JPY - Moved stop on long 163.69 to 162.48, and limit 165.05.

USD/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.2250 to 1.2301, and limit 1.2203.

EUR/CHF - Hmmm, SAR is presently very close to the new bar. But is was pretty close before.

AUD/USD -

Interesting. The SAR point that was sitting in the upper portion of the 5/29 bar was under it when I checked in the morning (as it is now). Hmmm

This is looking like it might be a good long, but I think I missed the boat.

USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0820, limit 1.0598.

Seems there a few pairs that do most of their moving overnight. AUS/USD is one of them. Not sure of the others.

EUR/USD -

Or it can continue down today. The closeness of the 5 day to the price and the low ATR put me off entering, regardless of the nice short SAR signals.

USD/JPY -

5 day continues to hang near the price and SAR is pretty close as well. Looks like the Alligator wants to intertwine.

GBP/USD -

SAR is indicating good shorts but the Alligator is all intertwined and the ATR is low.

Projected Alligator is showing the beginnings of a short, but the other signals put me off.

EUR/JPY -

Moved stop on 163.69 to 162.38, and limit 165.05.

13 day is pretty close to the price action. I'm thinking that this pair should have a limit that is smaller when that is so.

Not sure about the entry on my 163.69 order.

USD/CHF -

Moved stop on 1.2250 to 1.2310, and limit 1.2203.

EUR/CHF -

Yeah, I'm thinking I got out early. But the signals are still a little weird.

I'm thinking that maybe I shouldn't enter a pair if the ATR is below a certain level. Need to look into that.

AUD/USD -

Price looks to move much more overnight. I think I should enter or modify orders in the morning on this one. Also, I won't enter or modify orders on unformed bars.

Price zipped through my stop this morning. Unless I move my SAR far away from the price on this pair, the price will occasionally go through the SAR. It doesn't move to show a reversal, just hangs out in the price action.

Stopped out on short 0.8175. Loss diff of 36.

Alligator is pretty tight at present. I'll check again in the morning.

USD/CAD -

Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0866, limit 1.0598.

I really need to look into using limits with all the pairs. The thing is a few of the pairs can have real nice trends that don't work so well with limits.

I think I may tinker with the ATR length. I'm using the default of 14 periods presently.

Also, on a number of pairs it is *critical* to get in when the SAR reverses. The problem with that is if the Alligator isn't confirming the SAR, the price is just zipping around. Which leads back into limits.

Update:

Tinkering with limits --

aud/usd: Wait for second SAR when entering on reversal. Enter on next bar when re-entering after limit hit. When 13 day is against and/or 5 & 8 day are very close, x1? When 13 day is confirming, x4.5?

usd/cad: x1.5 ATR when 13 day is against and 5 and 8 day are close? x6 ATR when the 13 day confirms? Problem with the x6 is when there is a strong pull back. Accept the loss in light of the gains? Perhaps wait until the start of the second period after the one that hit the limit before entering? With the new limit based off of the period that hit the limit?

EUR/USD -

Should have trusted my instincts.

Stopped out on short 1.3454. Loss diff of 16.

SAR is indicating long but the 13 day is out wide from the price.

Generally, the Alligator is wider if a reversal is in the works. Price may continue down in a day or two.

USD/JPY - Watching.

GBP/USD -

Again, I should have trusted my instincts. I'm thinking if the priceline reverses for three periods on this pair, I'll offset.

Stopped out on long at 1.9865. Loss diff of 74.

EUR/JPY -

Moved stop on 163.69 to 162.27, and limit 165.05.

Alligator is pretty tight on the 5 and 8 day lines. hmmm

USD/CHF -

Two periods where the SAR showed good short and Alligator confirms. ATR is pretty low though.

Entered short at 1.2250, stop 1.2319, and limit 1.2203.

EUR/CHF -

Not sure what to think here. Alligator and SAR are showing good for short. Last period's SAR was very close. All signs said to get out. Now it looks like the short is going to continue.

Hmmm.

Thing is, I've seen a SAR point early in a period indicate one thing and by the end of the period indicate the opposite.

Watching.

AUD/USD -

Moved stop on short 0.8175 to 0.8211.

Update:
Based on what I figured for limits on this pair I should offset. But, on a whim, I'm trying to set the limit from when I entered as opposed to when the SAR indicated the trend started. So -

Short 0.8175, stop 0.8211, limit 0.8118.

USD/CAD -

Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0828.

Update:

Set limit to 1.0598. Also will set stops on SAR. So -

Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0913, limit 1.0598.

EUR/USD -

Moved stop on short 1.3454 to 1.3470 (limit 1.3270).

SAR and 5 day is very close to the price and ATR is low. Makes me think I should offset, but I'll hang on.

USD/JPY - Same as the other day... mixed signals. Watching.

GBP/USD -

Not sure what to think here. Alligator is acting like it wants to form a short. SAR is away from the price and looks ok for a long. Priceline has been moving down for the last 3 bars.

I'm tempted to move my stop up to the 5 day, but that is *very* close to the price action.

I think I'll keep my current stop and see what happens.

No change on long at 1.9865, stop 1.9791.

EUR/JPY -

SAR signaled a good long.

Entered long at 163.69, stop 162.16, and limit 165.05.

I'm going to test not subtracting the spread (4) from the limit.

USD/CHF - Watching.

EUR/CHF -

Moved stop on short 1.6520 to 1.6534. Alligator indicates it should be 1.6530. but the price is too close.

I'm thinking I need to set limits on this pair as well. Maybe just the ATR when the 13 day is close to the price activity and x3.5 when the 13 day is >= 85 pts away.

Will also use SAR for stops.

Yeah, when the SAR is this close to the price it always pulls back or reverses. It would have hit its limit already as well.

Offset short 1.6520 at 1.6524. Loss diff of 4.

AUD/USD -

Will start using SAR for stops.

Moved stop on short 0.8175 to 0.8227.

USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0852.

Memorial Day Links

The Honor Was Ours

Thank You From Those Left Behind

"Remember..."

How to honor the Real Heroes

The Lost Heroes of the War on Terror

Memorial Day 2007

Dedication...

This is how we roll

The stories behind Memorial Day

I noticed something the other day on my limit with EUR/JPY. My limit was not activated when the price dropped below 162.49 (it hit 162.47). So I watched it to see what happened. It looks like how LiteForex works its limits is that it won't activate until the distance of the spread is hit. They offer 4pt spread on EUR/JPY and when the price hit 162.65 it activated for 162.49.

So, to avoid the risk of my limit not being hit I'll subtract the spread from whatever I set my limit to.

EUR/USD -

I'll need to move my limit up to 1.3270 when the markets open on Sunday (LiteForex disables the placement/modification of trades when the market is closed).

Moved stop on short 1.3454 to 1.3500 (limit 1.3267).

Update:
Moved stop on short 1.3454 to 1.3471 (limit 1.3270).

USD/JPY -

SAR is indicating a long, but the ATR is low and the 5 day Aligator line is running very close to the price.

Watching.

GBP/USD -

No change on long at 1.9865, stop 1.9757.

Update:
Moved stop on long 1.9865 to 1.9791


EUR/JPY -

Limit hit - short at 162.97 at 162.49. Profit diff of 48.

This was pretty neat. The low of today's bar dropped pretty far and did hit my limit. But the price closed pretty high. The Alligator's projection is indicating the price may still continue up based on that jump even if the SAR still indicates short.

So, I learned two things: 1) was still able to take profit from what may turn out to have been a false short signal and 2) a low ATR may indeed indicate that the signal is false.

Question: if I can still take a profit on this pair on false signals, should I go ahead and enter in order to snag a wee bit more?

USD/CHF - Watching. Alligator looks like it wants to form a short. SAR is still indicating long, but is running close to the lows.

EUR/CHF -

No change on short 1.6520, stop 1.6557.

Update:
Moved stop on short 1.6520 to 1.6548.

AUD/USD - Moved stop on short 0.8175 to 0.8247.

USD/CAD -

No change on short 1.0829, stop 1.0907.

Update:
Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0874.

Starting to think that a low ATR indicates that whipsaw action is likely.

EUR/USD - Moved stop on short 1.3454 to 1.3504 (limit 1.3267).

USD/JPY - Watching

GBP/USD - No change on long at 1.9865, stop 1.9757.

EUR/JPY -

Entered short at 162.97, stop 164.00, limit 162.49.

Question: Should I enter when the ATR is low?

USD/CHF - Watching

EUR/CHF - Moved stop on short 1.6520 to 1.6557.

AUD/USD - Entered short at 0.8175, stop 0.8266.

USD/CAD - Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0907.

I forgot to post the other day.

Alligator appears to widen before a reverse. Also, the closer the lows (for shorts) of the periods run to the 5 day, the more likely a reverse or pull back will happen. Trend is strongest when the 5 day is far away from the bars.

I think I'll set my stops to the 5 day.

Need to look at the Alligator methods if I'm going to do it this way. Maybe switch them all back to Linear Weighted.

EUR/USD -

Entered short at 1.3454, stop 1.3507.

Update:
Changed SAR to 0.0646 and Alligator's method to simple.

Think I won't base stops off of the Alligator on this one, I'll use the SAR.

Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR x3.25 to the last period's high (for longs).

Setting limit on short 1.3454 to 1.3267 (based on when the SAR indicated that I should have entered (5/17)). Also moved stop down to 1.3504.

So, one of three things will happen:

1. stop is hit
2. SAR point drops below the bar
3. limit is hit

Question is: should I move the stops and check out the SAR in the morning or wait until the bar is complete?

USD/JPY -

Moved stop on long 120.82 to 120.95.

Update:
Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to simple.

Think I won't base stops off of the Alligator on this one, I'll use the SAR.

Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR to the last period's high (for longs).

And as that would have been hit already, I'll offset.

Offset long 120.82 at 121.53. Profit diff of 71.

GBP/USD -

Moved stop on short 1.9797, stop 1.9896 yesterday.

Then this morning the price reversed and knocked me out.

Short 1.9797 stopped out (1.9896) - loss diff of 99

Entered long at 1.9865, stop 1.9757.

Update:
Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to exponential.

Stops will start with Alligator and switch to SAR when it gets closer.

Also, this pair's priceline is telling. A good trend will have a priceline that moves strongly in the trend's direction with a little or no reversal. A bad trend's priceline will whipsaw.

EUR/JPY -

Moved stop on long 163.46 to 163.23.

Update:
Changed SAR to 0.053 and Alligator's method to simple.

Will set stops and offset on SAR.

Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR x1.5 to the last period's high (for longs).

And as that would have been hit already, I'll offset.

Offset long 163.46 at 163.47. Profit diff of 1.

USD/CHF -

Moved stop -- long 1.2229 to 1.2237.
Moved stop -- long 1.2230 to 1.2237.

Update:
Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to linear weighted.

Think I won't base stops off of the Alligator on this one. I think I'll use the SAR.

Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR to the last period's high (for longs).

And as that would have been hit already and that the price line is about to hit the 5 day, I'll offset both positions.

Offset long 1.2229 at 1.2275. Profit diff of 46.
Offset long 1.2230 at 1.2275. Profit diff of 45.

As this pair is looking like it is tring to decide if it wants to reverse, I'll sit back and watch.

EUR/CHF -

Price line hit 5 day.

Offset short 1.6557 at 1.6520. Loss diff of 37.

Entered short at 1.6520, stop 1.6559.

Update: Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to exponential.

AUD/USD -

Watching

Update: Changed SAR to 0.06 and Alligator's method to smoothed.

USD/CAD -

Update: Changed SAR to 0.0625 and Alligator's method to linear weighted.

SAR is well away from the price and Alligator is not tangled.

Entered short at 1.0829, stop 1.0938.

I may have entered late on this one, but I wanted to test it out.

EUR/USD -

SAR and Heiken are indicating down but Alligator is intertwined.

However, the Alligator is showing signs that it is trying to form a short signal.

Might enter on a pull back.

Question: if the Alligator is only intertwined because it is in the process of forming the opposite direction, should I enter when the SAR and Heiken show the way? I would have gotten in much sooner on this downtrend.

USD/JPY -

Moved stop on long 120.82 to 119.74.

Update - 5/21 6:15pm EST - Moved stop on long 120.82 to 119.76.

GBP/USD -

No change in stop -- short 1.9797, stop 1.9926.

Alligator is widening.

Update - 5/21 6:17pm EST - Moved stop on short 1.9797 to 1.9909.

EUR/JPY -

Everything looks good on a long. But the SAR is too close to the price (which indicates that a pull back might happen). There was one pullback already on the 5/18 bar which hit the SAR. But if I'm setting stops on the 13 day line of the Alligator, it shouldn't be a problem.

Hmm, this might not be wise, but

Entered long at 163.46, stop 161.54.

Update - 5/21 6:19pm EST - Moved stop on long 163.46 to 161.55.

USD/CHF -

Moved stop -- long 1.2229 to 1.2107.
Long at 1.2230, stop 1.2138.

Update - 5/21 6:20pm EST - Moved stop on long 1.2229 to 1.2115.

EUR/CHF -

Entered long at 1.6557, stop 1.6415.

Update - 5/21 6:22pm EST - Moved stop on long 1.2229 to 1.2118.

AUD/USD - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/CAD -

5 and 8 day are not still intertwined and moving apart. Seems the main thing is the 13 day was away from the 5 and 8 day and still pointing down.

Might enter short on a pullback.

EUR/GBP -

5 day hit price line and I offsetted my long 0.6849 at 0.6824. Loss diff of 25 (which is really double on this pair).

I'm going to have to stop watching this pair. The patterns for the nice trends look the same at the start as the large whipsaws that have been going on for the past month.

This pair works much better on the 4 hour chart with my system.

Oh well.

EUR/USD -

SAR indicates up and Alligator is intertwined (but looking like it wants to go down.

Heiken is also indicating down.

Leaving alone for now.

USD/JPY -

Moved stop on long 120.82 to 119.69.

GBP/USD -

Moved stop -- short 1.9797, stop 1.9926.

EUR/JPY -

Continues to show long. Leaving alone for now.

USD/CHF -

I screwed up on this the other day. I entered two positions instead of one. Teach me for messing around while I'm nodding off.

Moved stop -- long 1.2229 to 1.2098.
Long at 1.2230, stop 1.2138.

EUR/CHF -

Continues to show long. Leaving alone for now.

AUD/USD - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/CAD -

5 and 8 day lines are still intertwined. Leaving alone.

EUR/GBP -

Long at 0.6849, stop 0.6808.

Got caught up and didn't post the other day.

Also mucked with the method used on the Alligator indicator keeping in mind that I offset when the 5 day hits the price line.

---------------

EUR/USD - Changed Alligator method to exponential and it is still intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/JPY -

Changed Alligator method to exponential.

It is indicating an uptrend. The 5 day crossed the price line and back again on 5/10, indicating the long started again. So. I'm entering a bit late.

Entered long at 120.82, stop 119.63.

GBP/USD -

Changed Alligator method to exponential.

Moved stop -- short 1.9797, stop 1.9932.

EUR/JPY -

Changed Alligator method to smoothed.

This too is giving signs of a long. I just don't like how close the 5 day is to the 8 day. Leaving alone for now.

USD/CHF -

Changed Alligator method to simple.

I was right to stay out. There was a pullback by the end of the 5/14 bar and the 5 day crossed the priceline and then back over.

Entered long at 1.2229, stop 1.2088.

EUR/CHF -

Changed Alligator method to smoothed.

This is acting like USD/CHF. As I'm playing with a new method of entering, I'm not going to enter too many similar pairs.

AUD/USD - Changed Alligator method to simple and it is still intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/CAD -

Changed Alligator method to simple.

5 and 8 day lines are still intertwined. Leaving alone.

EUR/GBP -

Changed Alligator method to smoothed.

Entered long at 0.6849, stop 0.6808.

Checking out the LiteForex features

I had grown used to the Heiken Ashi candles at CMS and after poking around some more with the LiteForex charts I found them under their "Custom Indicators". They looked ugly behind the traditional candles and bars. But, they do well behind a line depiction of the price.

This created a surprising effect when combined with the Alligator indicator they offer (see the fourth point below).

In messing around I found that I could set the Alligator indicator to use a Linear Weighted method based off of the closing price (I'm using the default period settings).

I liked what I found.

First, even though the period ranges are shorter (13, 8, and 5), I'm given good info and price direction.

Second, the selling point of the Alligator indicator is that when all the lines are close or intertwined ("the alligator's mouth is shut"), the market isn't going anywhere. Which would, if the talk is worth anything, keep one out of a whipsaw market.

Third, the indicator projects a few periods out from the current bar. Which is somewhat helpful in predictions.

Fourth, I noticed that when the fast line (green or "lips") crosses the price line (on a line chart), it tends to be a reliable exit signal.

So, based on the above ---

EUR/USD -

5 day hit price line and I offseted my short 1.3605 at 1.3544. Profit diff of 61.

Projected 5 and 8 day are moving to intertwine. 13 day is still well above the price. Leaving alone.

USD/JPY - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

GBP/USD -

Entered short at 1.9797, stop 1.9968.

I did so mainly because the SAR was far from the price (heh, watch me get burned with that again).

The Alligator is showing a good downtrend. However, if the price goes horizontal for a few days, my 5 day will hit it indicating a exit. This spooks me a bit but I noticed something. On 5/8 the 5 day hit the price line indicating an exit, but the trend continued. When that has happened at other points on this chart, the price tends to continue on the initial trend. So, something else to tinker with.

EUR/JPY - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/CHF -

Alligator is indicating a continued uptrend. However, the SAR is close to the price (tends to mean a pull back or reversal is due) and the projected 5 day is in the path of the price line.

Unless the price rockets upwards tomorrow, I think there will be a pull back. Considering how far the 13 day is from the other lines, I don't think it will be a true reversal.

EUR/CHF - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

AUD/USD - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/CAD -

The 3 ("lips") and 5 ("teeth") day are intertwined while the 13 day ("jaws") is moving in towards the other two. Leaving alone.

EUR/GBP - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

Forgot to mention, the LiteForex day bar starts at 12am and not 5pm.

EUR/USD -

CMS Fx -

The 10 day has crossed below the 5 day and the 20 day has touched the 5 day. Considering that 20 and 40 days are still indicating a downtrend I'd be tempted to let it run. But, I'm eager to drop CMS Fx.

Offset short 1.3584 at 1.3543. Profit of 4.1

LiteForex -

Moved stop on short 1.3605 to 1.3596.

10 and 40 day are running very near the 5 day. If the price continues upwards I may need to offset.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex - SAR indicates short but all LRIs are indicating long. Watching.

GBP/USD -

LiteForex - Looks like I was right in that I placed the SAR too close (and my stop). The trend is continueing down. Not sure about entering since the downtrend has been going for 14 days.

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

Short 120.07 stopped out (162.43) - loss 5.9

Again, I got burned following just the SAR. Need to use them more as a stop indicator and a sub direction indicator to the LRIs.

While both the 10 and 20 days are above the 5 day, they are very close to the 5 day. Plus, the 40 day is a goodly distance from the 5 day. Thus indicating a pull back and not a reversal.

USD/CHF -

CMS Fx -

Both the 10 day and the 20 day have touched the 5 day. Considering that all LRIs are still indicating an uptrend I'd be tempted to let it run. But, I'm eager to drop CMS Fx.

Offset long 1.2142 at 1.2185. Profit of 4.3

LiteForex - Continuing uptrend.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex - Continuing uptrend

AUD/USD -

LiteForex - LRIs are still clustered closely together.

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

Again, I put more weight behind the SAR than the LRIs.

The SAR is indicating a downtrend and the LRIs on LiteForex's chart (as opposed to CMS Fx's) show the 40 day way above the 5 day (indicating a pretty strong downtrend,

Offset long 1.1117 at 1.1062. Loss of 7.4

EUR/GBP -

CMS Fx -

Short 120.07 stopped out (0.6801) - loss 3.4

LiteForex - I'm starting to think the only safe trades on this pair is when the 40 day swings way out from the 5 day.

NZD/USD -

CMS Fx -

Both the 10 day and the 20 day have crossed below the 5 day. Considering that both the 40 and 20 day are still indicating a downtrend I'd be tempted to let it run. But, I'm eager to drop CMS Fx.

Offset short 0.7428 at 0.7376. Profit of 5.2

-----------------

OK,

Done with CMS Fx. Also, after today I'm done with CMS' method of indicating profit or loss. It's just irratating. I'll just show the price diff.

Also, as new bars start at 12am, I'll most likely start checking in closer to that time to update my positions.

I may be entering some tonight.

EUR/USD -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop short 1.3584 to 1.3610

LiteForex -

No move in stop -- Short at 1.3605, stop 1.3623.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex - watching

GBP/USD -

LiteForex - watching

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

No move in stop -- Short at 162.43, stop 163.02.

USD/CHF -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop on long 1.2142 to 1.2110.

LiteForex - Continuing uptrend.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex - watching.

AUD/USD -

LiteForex - watching

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

No move in stop -- Long at 1.1117, stop 1.1043.

EUR/GBP -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 0.6801 stop 0.6835

LiteForex - watching

NZD/USD -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop short 0.7428 to 0.7410.

Well, as you'll see, I can't go off of the SAR alone. The SAR may show a reverse, but if the LRIs indicate otherwise, it is most likely just a pullback.

EUR/USD -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop short 1.3584 to 1.3624

LiteForex -

Short at 1.3605. Moved stop to 1.3623.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex -

Short 120.07 stopped out (120.14) - loss 0.56

I entered based on SAR reversal. However, the 20 and 40 day lines were well under the 5 day and the 10 day had just crossed over.

I tempted to think I need to pull my SAR back some, but I'm not sure. Seems I could take a SAR reversal as a sign to take profit and then wait for 2 or more SAR points in the direction that the LRIs indicate. hmmm

GBP/USD -

LiteForex -

Stop triggered for a -9.1 loss (1.9938 stop 1.9847).

There was no long, the SAR was too close. It knocked me out of my short the other day and I assumed a long had started.

Changed SAR to: step 0.0325 - max 1

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

Moved stop on short 162.43 to 163.02.

Changed SAR to use the same method as USD/JPY: step 0.5 - max 1

USD/CHF -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop on long 1.2142 to 1.2092.

LiteForex -

Continuing uptrend.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex -

Watching.

AUD/USD -

LiteForex - watching

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

Hmm, third long SAR. Gonna try it.

Entered long at 1.1117, stop 1.1043.

EUR/GBP -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 0.6801 stop 0.6835

LiteForex - Third short SAR, but I don't like how the LRIs are all bunched on the 5 day.

NZD/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 0.7428 stop 0.7419.

EUR/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 1.3584 stop 1.3637

LiteForex -

Short at 1.3605. Moved stop to 1.3639.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex -

Short at 120.07. Moved stop to 120.14.

GBP/USD -

CMS Fx -

Stop triggered for a 2.3 profit (2.0016 stop 1.9993).

LiteForex -

Stop triggered for a -2.2 loss (1.9957 stop 1.9979).

Entered long at 1.9938, stop 1.9847.

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

Changed SAR to: step 0.1 - max 1

Moved stop on short 162.43 to 163.38.

USD/CHF -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop on long 1.2142 to 1.2068.

LiteForex -

Continuing uptrend. Not sure where it is on that curve.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex -

Watching.

AUD/USD -

LiteForex - watching

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

Second long signal, but have too many things in the fire to enter. But the 40 makes me worry about entering a long at this point.

EUR/GBP -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop on short 0.6801 stop 0.6835

LiteForex - Second short signal but this pair worries me.

NZD/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 0.7428 stop 0.7419.

EUR/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 1.3584 stop 1.3637

LiteForex -

Short at 1.3605. Moved stop to 1.3648.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex -

Short at 120.07. Moved stop to 120.19.

GBP/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- 2.0016 stop 1.9993.

LiteForex -

Short at 1.9957. Moved stop to 1.9979.

Changed SAR to: step 0.0325 - max 1

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

Changed SAR to: step 0.1 - max 1

Entered short on 5/9 at 162.43. Current stop is 163.43.

USD/CHF -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- 1.2142 stop to 1.2054.

LiteForex -

Continuing uptrend. Not sure where it is on that curve.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex -

Fiddling with the SAR: step 0.25 - max 1

Looks to be a long, but I want to watch it a bit.

AUD/USD -

CMS Fx -

Stop triggered for a 5.9 profit (0.8344, stop 0.8285). Because the chart still has bad data I don't know if I had an exit signal last night or what. This should have been a much larger profit.

I trade chart signals and if the chart data is bad.... well, I'm not going to trade with CMS Fx.

LiteForex -

Hit my stop: short 0.8245, stop 0.8263 for a -1.8 loss. Need to fiddle with my SAR? Looks like it is shaping up for a long.

All in all, this chart looks way different than the CMS Fx chart. When I entered on the CMS Fx, everything looked like a strong short. With the LiteForex, that just isn't so. The 40 day is way, way below all the other lines on the LiteForex.

I'm going to watch this for a bit. But I think I could enter long now.

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

Still going down for now.

EUR/GBP -

CMS Fx -

The long order was stopped out for a -4.1 loss (0.6830, stop 0.6789).
Short continues with no change in stop - 0.6801 stop 0.6847.

LiteForex -

Watching and testing SAR

NZD/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 0.7428 stop 0.7419.

Don't you hate it when you're 75% done with a large post and your computer BSODs?

Yeah, me too.

========================

LiteForex's LRIs don't indicate if they are going up or down (other than the way that they are pointing). However, their parabolic SAR indicators are real nice. They look to be able to show entry, exit, and stop. In some cases they look to show where one may add to a position. I'll be playing with them a great deal.

I'll continue my open positions in CMS Fx and once they are done, I'll be done with that broker.

EUR/USD -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.0175 and max - 1

Entered short on 5/7 at 1.3605. Current stop is 1.3658.

CMS Fx -

Moved short 1.3584 stop to 1.3637.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.05 and max - 1

Entered short on 5/8 at 120.07. Current stop is 120.47.

CMS Fx -

Looks to be shaping up for a short.

GBP/USD -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.0375 and max - 1

Entered short on 5/7 at 1.9957. Current stop is 1.9990.

CMS Fx -

Moved short 2.0016 stop to 1.9993.

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.07 and max - 1

Uptrend continues.

CMS Fx -

Uptrend continues.

USD/CHF -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.045 and max - 1

Uptrend continues.

CMS Fx -

Moved long 1.2142 stop to 1.2054.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.0425 and max - 1

SAR is indicating a short, but I'm not sure of its current settings.

CMS Fx -

Indicating a short as well.

AUD/USD -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.05 and max - 1

Entered short on 5/7 at 0.8245. Current stop is 0.8263.

CMS Fx -

Chart data is still screwed up. All indicators are suspect.

Moved short 0.8344 stop to 0.8285.

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.275 and max - 1

Downtrend continues. Need to tinker with the SAR on this.

CMS Fx -

Downtrend continues.

EUR/GBP -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.0175 and max - 1

Uptrend continues. Need to tinker with the SAR on this.

CMS Fx -

No changes in stops:
long 0.6830 stop 0.6789.
short hedge 0.6801 stop 0.6847.

CAD/JPY -

LiteForex -

Not available through LiteForex.

CMS Fx -

Uptrend continues.

NZD/USD -

LiteForex -

Not available through LiteForex.

CMS Fx -

Moved short 0.7428 stop to 0.7419.

Downtrend continues and all LRIs are indicating the same.

Worrisome

I've been happy with CMS FX's demo account and was thinking I'd enter a real money account if all my positions work out.

However, a very worrisome thing happened on Friday. The charts were unavailable.

hmmm

I used the VT trader online help forums and it indicated a connectivity problem with CMS. Well, as the market is closed I don't *really* care as long as the charts are back before market open on Sunday.

Well, it is well past market open on Sunday and the charts are unavailable. For all I know there could have been a massive reverse that I could have acted on... but as I can't see the blasted charts, I don't know.

So, in googling around to see if maybe there might possibly be a problem with my wireless router I found this site: goforex.net

They have reviews of various brokers and the CMS review has a few posts on their unavailability. I'm going to dig around some more (goforex looks to be like amazon where competitors can post all sorts of odd stuff), but if turns out that CMS has problems with unavailability, I'll be going with another broker.

--------

Digging around for more broker reviews -

forexrealm.com

forexbastards.com

As of 7pm EST, CMS FX charts are still unavailable.

--------

As of 8:11pm EST, CMS FX charts are still unavailable.

This is intolerable.

---------

Looking at the following brokers:

liteforex.org

finex.com

rfxt.com

---------

As of 10:30pm EST, CMS FX charts are still unavailable.

Not gonna put any money with CMS.

Testing out liteforex... little more work to get their stuff setup. I should have things set up ok in a day or two.

---------

OK, this is just silly. At 8:20am EST this morning I was able to get into the CMS charts. I think I'll just watch the trades that I had put in and once they finish I'll just drop CMS. But that isn't the silly part.

First, all my indicators are gone. That happens on VT trader when one upgrades, but I didn't upgrade....=\

Second, after putting in all of my indicators again, I'm going through my positions and notice AUD/USD's 5/7 bar... hi: 0.8257, close: 0.8257, open: -0.0005 (!!!), and low: -0.0005 (!!!).

Note, that error only shows up on the chart. My open position's window shows that there must have been a reversal as my profit is much less.

This is nutty. Every time I think I'm being silly for testing out a system or a broker for so long, something like this happens and makes me go...hmmmmmm.

EUR/USD -

Moved short 1.3584 stop to 1.3688.

Downtrend continues and all LRIs except the 40 are indicating the same.

USD/JPY -

40 day line has moved away from the 5 day and looks like it will continue the uptrend.

Looks like entering a long when the 10 day crossed on 4/24 would have been safe. At that time only the 40 day was showing an uptrend (since 3/30). Is the 40 day direction what should be watched for entering this pair? Scrolling back over the history, that doesn't look safe when the price is whipsawing. Perhaps only when the 20 day (and maybe the 10 day are above the 40 day (for longs)?

The uptrend has gone on long enough that I'm not sure if I should enter a long. This points out, yet again, that I need to come up with a plan on how to add to a position on long running trends (or when to enter the same). I'm still thinking the 10 day crossing and then crossing back with all LRIs indicating an uptrend might be a good idea to test out.

GBP/USD -

Moved short 2.0016 stop to 2.0069.

Downtrend continues and all LRIs are indicating the same.

EUR/JPY -

All LRIs are flowing very close to the 5 day. With the 40 and 10 days above the 5 day (indicating a short). The 20 day has crossed the 5 day with the unformed 5/4 bar.

All LRIs are indicating an uptrend.

Based on the height of the TSI (37.8) and the LRIs over the 5 day, I'd say a short signal is coming. But as USD/JPY continues up, I'm thinking this pair will continue up for a bit more.

USD/CHF -

Moved long 1.2142 stop to 1.2025.

Uptrend continues and all LRIs are indicating the same.

EUR/CHF -

The 40 and 10 days above the 5 day and the 20 day is still below.

All LRIs are indicating an uptrend.

This too is looking to go short soon based on the height of the TSI (34.8).

AUD/USD -

Moved short 0.8344 stop to 0.8317.

Downtrend continues and all LRIs are indicating the same.

USD/CAD -

The 10 and 20 day lines are below the 5 day with the 40 day flowing closer.

All LRIs are indicating an downtrend.

A long will be coming soon. Perhaps a nice one. TSI is at -66.9

EUR/GBP -

Continues to futz around. LRIs still indicate an uptrend.

No changes in stops:
long 0.6830 stop 0.6789.
short hedge 0.6801 stop 0.6847.

CAD/JPY -

All LRIs are flowing very close to the 5 day. All the LRIs are below the 5 day up to the current unformed 5/4 bar. On that bar the 10 day has crossed above the 5 day.

All LRIs are indicating an uptrend.

Based on the height of the TSI (49.6) , I'd say a short signal is coming.

NZD/USD -

Moved short 0.7428 stop to 0.7453.

Downtrend continues and all LRIs are indicating the same.

Is it working?

I've held off posting about my holdings as the past several were failures. But, I think I'm on to something here.

AUD/USD -

Entered short on 4/22 at 0.8344. Current stop is 0.8348.

I entered based on my idea that if the LRIs are all clustered I can ignore that they are indicating that the trend is going the other way.

On 4/18 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/19 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/20 the 40 day crossed. In the past I was thinking that if they crossed but were indicating an ongoing trend, I should wait for the 10 day to cross the 5 day and back again. That has occured on AUD/USD (4/30 and 5/2) but not on NZD/USD which mirrors AUD/USD. The issue with entering like this is that the price swings around a good bit before going in the predicted direction. NOTE: I'm assuming it will go in the predicted direction at this point... I'll know more in the days ahead.

On 4/24 the 10 day indicated the price was going down, on 4/25 the 20 day did the same, and on 40 day indicated downtrend today as well.

NZD/USD -

Entered short on 4/24 at 0.7428. Current stop is 0.7475.

Again, this pair nearly mirrors AUD/USD and the both of them can be looked at to get an idea on how the other will act.

On 4/19 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/23 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/24 the 40 day crossed.

On 4/25 the 10 day indicated the price was going down, the 20 day did the same briefly on 4/30 and today, and the 40 day indicated downtrend today as well.

GBP/USD -

Entered short on 4/24 at 2.0016. Current stop is 2.0104.

On 4/20 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/24 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/25 the 40 day crossed.

On 4/25 the 10 day indicated the price was going down, the 20 day today, and the 40 day has yet to indicate a downtrend.

This pair also had the 10 day cross the 5 day briefly (5/1) before crossing back over at the start of the 5/3 bar (NOTE: Don't fully trust crosses on incomplete bars).

EUR/USD -

Entered short on 5/2 at 1.3584. Starting stop is 1.3694.

I waited to see what the first 3 pairs would do before entering this one.

On 4/19 the 10 day crossed the 5 day and did a brief hop back and forth on 4/27 and 5/1. On 4/23 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/30 the 40 day crossed.

On 4/24 the 10 day briefly indicated the price was going down and turned down again on the 5/3 bar, same with the 20 day, and the 40 day has yet to indicate a downtrend.

EUR/GBP -

Signs indicated that this pair was done with its five day period whipsaws, so I entered long.

Entered long on 4/27 at 0.6830. Starting/current stop is 0.6789.

On 4/23 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/24 both the 20 and 40 days crossed.

On 5/1 the 10 day crossed back over and all the LRIs were still indicating an uptrend. Yesterday, the 20 day indicated a down trend and as this pair is $20 a pip I decided to hedge.

Entered short hedge on 5/1 at 0.6801. Starting/current stop is 0.6847.

The price is still futzing around so I'm not sure what's up. It does look like I was right the first time and it will continue up, but this pair can be funny when it isn't on a long trend.

USD/JPY -

Looks like it is on an uptrend that started when the 10 day crossed on 4/24.

I've not entered this one as the 40 day is hanging close to the 5 day. It crossed the 5 day on 4/19 (indicating a short) but has continued to point up (indicating a uptrend). Then it crossed back under the 5 day on 4/30 and still indicates an uptrend. But it is running very close to the 5 day. That can lead to some very unpredictable behavior. So, I'm not going to bother.

EUR/JPY -

Acting very much like USD/JPY and I'm staying out for the same reason.

USD/CHF -

Entered long on 5/2 at 1.2142. Starting/current stop is 1.2019.

This is a very volatile pair. Which means mistakes are expensive.

The 10 day crossed on 4/20 indicating a long. However, price action after that would have knocked me out. So, it was a better exit short signal.

The 20 day crossed on 4/26. Looking at the chart that looked to be an ok entry, but the 20 and 40 were indicating a long was a bad idea.

The 40 day crossed on 5/1. At this point the 10 and 20 days were indicating an uptrend, but it still struck me as odd.

By the close of the 5/2 bar the 40 day was indicating an uptrend as well.

EUR/CHF -

Acting very much like USD/JPY and I'm staying out for the same reason.

USD/CAD -

Is on a very long downtrend. However, the 10 and 20 days have hung very close to the 5 day crossing every now and again. The 40 day is slowly moving closer to the 5 day as well.

I think a reversal is coming. Not sure when.

CAD/JPY -

Acting very much like USD/JPY and I'm staying out for the same reason.

-------

Note, I'm using the TSI as sort of a weathervane. On many pairs, if the trend starts down, it will not reverse until sometime after it passes the zero line. Not all pairs though. I'm still trying to nail that one down. Also, several of the above pairs have crossed the 25/-25 line on the TSI... gone well past it. So, like on EUR/USD and a few others, I think I may be in for some nice, long trends.

Time will tell.