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Tuesday, May 29, 2007

I really need to look into using limits with all the pairs. The thing is a few of the pairs can have real nice trends that don't work so well with limits.

I think I may tinker with the ATR length. I'm using the default of 14 periods presently.

Also, on a number of pairs it is *critical* to get in when the SAR reverses. The problem with that is if the Alligator isn't confirming the SAR, the price is just zipping around. Which leads back into limits.

Update:

Tinkering with limits --

aud/usd: Wait for second SAR when entering on reversal. Enter on next bar when re-entering after limit hit. When 13 day is against and/or 5 & 8 day are very close, x1? When 13 day is confirming, x4.5?

usd/cad: x1.5 ATR when 13 day is against and 5 and 8 day are close? x6 ATR when the 13 day confirms? Problem with the x6 is when there is a strong pull back. Accept the loss in light of the gains? Perhaps wait until the start of the second period after the one that hit the limit before entering? With the new limit based off of the period that hit the limit?

EUR/USD -

Should have trusted my instincts.

Stopped out on short 1.3454. Loss diff of 16.

SAR is indicating long but the 13 day is out wide from the price.

Generally, the Alligator is wider if a reversal is in the works. Price may continue down in a day or two.

USD/JPY - Watching.

GBP/USD -

Again, I should have trusted my instincts. I'm thinking if the priceline reverses for three periods on this pair, I'll offset.

Stopped out on long at 1.9865. Loss diff of 74.

EUR/JPY -

Moved stop on 163.69 to 162.27, and limit 165.05.

Alligator is pretty tight on the 5 and 8 day lines. hmmm

USD/CHF -

Two periods where the SAR showed good short and Alligator confirms. ATR is pretty low though.

Entered short at 1.2250, stop 1.2319, and limit 1.2203.

EUR/CHF -

Not sure what to think here. Alligator and SAR are showing good for short. Last period's SAR was very close. All signs said to get out. Now it looks like the short is going to continue.

Hmmm.

Thing is, I've seen a SAR point early in a period indicate one thing and by the end of the period indicate the opposite.

Watching.

AUD/USD -

Moved stop on short 0.8175 to 0.8211.

Update:
Based on what I figured for limits on this pair I should offset. But, on a whim, I'm trying to set the limit from when I entered as opposed to when the SAR indicated the trend started. So -

Short 0.8175, stop 0.8211, limit 0.8118.

USD/CAD -

Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0828.

Update:

Set limit to 1.0598. Also will set stops on SAR. So -

Moved stop on short 1.0829 to 1.0913, limit 1.0598.