Alligator appears to widen before a reverse. Also, the closer the lows (for shorts) of the periods run to the 5 day, the more likely a reverse or pull back will happen. Trend is strongest when the 5 day is far away from the bars.
I think I'll set my stops to the 5 day.
Need to look at the Alligator methods if I'm going to do it this way. Maybe switch them all back to Linear Weighted.
EUR/USD -
Entered short at 1.3454, stop 1.3507.
Update:
Changed SAR to 0.0646 and Alligator's method to simple.
Think I won't base stops off of the Alligator on this one, I'll use the SAR.
Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR x3.25 to the last period's high (for longs).
Setting limit on short 1.3454 to 1.3267 (based on when the SAR indicated that I should have entered (5/17)). Also moved stop down to 1.3504.
So, one of three things will happen:
- stop is hit
- SAR point drops below the bar
- limit is hit
USD/JPY -
Moved stop on long 120.82 to 120.95.
Update:
Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to simple.
Think I won't base stops off of the Alligator on this one, I'll use the SAR.
Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR to the last period's high (for longs).
And as that would have been hit already, I'll offset.
Offset long 120.82 at 121.53. Profit diff of 71.
GBP/USD -
Moved stop on short 1.9797, stop 1.9896 yesterday.
Then this morning the price reversed and knocked me out.
Short 1.9797 stopped out (1.9896) - loss diff of 99
Entered long at 1.9865, stop 1.9757.
Update:
Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to exponential.
Stops will start with Alligator and switch to SAR when it gets closer.
Also, this pair's priceline is telling. A good trend will have a priceline that moves strongly in the trend's direction with a little or no reversal. A bad trend's priceline will whipsaw.
EUR/JPY -
Moved stop on long 163.46 to 163.23.
Update:
Changed SAR to 0.053 and Alligator's method to simple.
Will set stops and offset on SAR.
Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR x1.5 to the last period's high (for longs).
And as that would have been hit already, I'll offset.
Offset long 163.46 at 163.47. Profit diff of 1.
USD/CHF -
Moved stop -- long 1.2229 to 1.2237.
Moved stop -- long 1.2230 to 1.2237.
Update:
Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to linear weighted.
Think I won't base stops off of the Alligator on this one. I think I'll use the SAR.
Also, I'm going to try using limits based off of the ATR(14 days). So, on entry, I'll set my limit by adding the current period's ATR to the last period's high (for longs).
And as that would have been hit already and that the price line is about to hit the 5 day, I'll offset both positions.
Offset long 1.2229 at 1.2275. Profit diff of 46.
Offset long 1.2230 at 1.2275. Profit diff of 45.
As this pair is looking like it is tring to decide if it wants to reverse, I'll sit back and watch.
EUR/CHF -
Price line hit 5 day.
Offset short 1.6557 at 1.6520. Loss diff of 37.
Entered short at 1.6520, stop 1.6559.
Update: Changed SAR to 0.08 and Alligator's method to exponential.
AUD/USD -
Watching
Update: Changed SAR to 0.06 and Alligator's method to smoothed.
USD/CAD -
Update: Changed SAR to 0.0625 and Alligator's method to linear weighted.
SAR is well away from the price and Alligator is not tangled.
Entered short at 1.0829, stop 1.0938.
I may have entered late on this one, but I wanted to test it out.
