I've held off posting about my holdings as the past several were failures. But, I think I'm on to something here.
AUD/USD -
Entered short on 4/22 at 0.8344. Current stop is 0.8348.
I entered based on my idea that if the LRIs are all clustered I can ignore that they are indicating that the trend is going the other way.
On 4/18 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/19 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/20 the 40 day crossed. In the past I was thinking that if they crossed but were indicating an ongoing trend, I should wait for the 10 day to cross the 5 day and back again. That has occured on AUD/USD (4/30 and 5/2) but not on NZD/USD which mirrors AUD/USD. The issue with entering like this is that the price swings around a good bit before going in the predicted direction. NOTE: I'm assuming it will go in the predicted direction at this point... I'll know more in the days ahead.
On 4/24 the 10 day indicated the price was going down, on 4/25 the 20 day did the same, and on 40 day indicated downtrend today as well.
NZD/USD -
Entered short on 4/24 at 0.7428. Current stop is 0.7475.
Again, this pair nearly mirrors AUD/USD and the both of them can be looked at to get an idea on how the other will act.
On 4/19 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/23 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/24 the 40 day crossed.
On 4/25 the 10 day indicated the price was going down, the 20 day did the same briefly on 4/30 and today, and the 40 day indicated downtrend today as well.
GBP/USD -
Entered short on 4/24 at 2.0016. Current stop is 2.0104.
On 4/20 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/24 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/25 the 40 day crossed.
On 4/25 the 10 day indicated the price was going down, the 20 day today, and the 40 day has yet to indicate a downtrend.
This pair also had the 10 day cross the 5 day briefly (5/1) before crossing back over at the start of the 5/3 bar (NOTE: Don't fully trust crosses on incomplete bars).
EUR/USD -
Entered short on 5/2 at 1.3584. Starting stop is 1.3694.
I waited to see what the first 3 pairs would do before entering this one.
On 4/19 the 10 day crossed the 5 day and did a brief hop back and forth on 4/27 and 5/1. On 4/23 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/30 the 40 day crossed.
On 4/24 the 10 day briefly indicated the price was going down and turned down again on the 5/3 bar, same with the 20 day, and the 40 day has yet to indicate a downtrend.
EUR/GBP -
Signs indicated that this pair was done with its five day period whipsaws, so I entered long.
Entered long on 4/27 at 0.6830. Starting/current stop is 0.6789.
On 4/23 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/24 both the 20 and 40 days crossed.
On 5/1 the 10 day crossed back over and all the LRIs were still indicating an uptrend. Yesterday, the 20 day indicated a down trend and as this pair is $20 a pip I decided to hedge.
Entered short hedge on 5/1 at 0.6801. Starting/current stop is 0.6847.
The price is still futzing around so I'm not sure what's up. It does look like I was right the first time and it will continue up, but this pair can be funny when it isn't on a long trend.
USD/JPY -
Looks like it is on an uptrend that started when the 10 day crossed on 4/24.
I've not entered this one as the 40 day is hanging close to the 5 day. It crossed the 5 day on 4/19 (indicating a short) but has continued to point up (indicating a uptrend). Then it crossed back under the 5 day on 4/30 and still indicates an uptrend. But it is running very close to the 5 day. That can lead to some very unpredictable behavior. So, I'm not going to bother.
EUR/JPY -
Acting very much like USD/JPY and I'm staying out for the same reason.
USD/CHF -
Entered long on 5/2 at 1.2142. Starting/current stop is 1.2019.
This is a very volatile pair. Which means mistakes are expensive.
The 10 day crossed on 4/20 indicating a long. However, price action after that would have knocked me out. So, it was a better exit short signal.
The 20 day crossed on 4/26. Looking at the chart that looked to be an ok entry, but the 20 and 40 were indicating a long was a bad idea.
The 40 day crossed on 5/1. At this point the 10 and 20 days were indicating an uptrend, but it still struck me as odd.
By the close of the 5/2 bar the 40 day was indicating an uptrend as well.
EUR/CHF -
Acting very much like USD/JPY and I'm staying out for the same reason.
USD/CAD -
Is on a very long downtrend. However, the 10 and 20 days have hung very close to the 5 day crossing every now and again. The 40 day is slowly moving closer to the 5 day as well.
I think a reversal is coming. Not sure when.
CAD/JPY -
Acting very much like USD/JPY and I'm staying out for the same reason.
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Note, I'm using the TSI as sort of a weathervane. On many pairs, if the trend starts down, it will not reverse until sometime after it passes the zero line. Not all pairs though. I'm still trying to nail that one down. Also, several of the above pairs have crossed the 25/-25 line on the TSI... gone well past it. So, like on EUR/USD and a few others, I think I may be in for some nice, long trends.
Time will tell.
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