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Monday, March 19, 2007

Forex

EUR/USD 7:30pm:
CMO has hit zero and TCF lines have crossed indicating a long. TSI and the Tenkan/Kijun lines still indicate the short continues. The price is in the cloud which is very tall.

8pm update: Tenkan/Kijun lines have crossed and indicate a long as well. Chikou Span indicates that this is a weak signal. Will check in at 10pm.

USD/JPY 7:30pm:
The CMO hit the -50 from above at 10am this morning (the bar after I entered). In the past I chalked this up to entry turbulance, but the past trade has me wondering. CMO has hit the zero line and the TCF lines have crossed. TSI and Tenkan/Kijun lines indicate that the long continues. Clouds are small to moderate in height. Not sure what to think here.

8pm update: from around 7:40pm to just before 8pm I saw the price go from around 117.31 to around 117.66 before settling at 117.62. Crazy. If the price hits around 117.79, I'll look to add to my position.

8:55pm update: And lo did my entry stop get triggered. Entered a second USD/JPY at 117.79 (4pips over the day's high and 1 ATR over the open price of the 8-10pm bar) with a stop of 116.67.
10pm update: Set an entry stop for USD/JPY118.08 in case it climes like mad.
12am update: Can't leave well enough alone. Based on price movement and thus a change in ATR size, I've modified my entry stop to 118.00 and moved all stops to 116.92. Hopefully no odd price movements overnight.

AUD/USD 7:30pm:
Continues upwards.

8pm update: Strange. All indicators are showing a strong uptrend, but the CMO is moving down towards the 50 line. Is an exit coming up? Or is that just noise?
10pm update: CMO has hit the zero line and the TSI lines indicate a short. But the Tenkan/Kijun and TCF say the long continues.

EUR/JPY 7:30pm:
Acting like USD/JPY. Very thin clouds.

8pm update: Same

NZD/USD 7:30pm:
Continues upwards with thinning clouds.

8pm update: CMO has hit the 50 line from above. Valid offset signal?
10pm update: Matches the AUD/USD 10pm update except that the TCF is also indicating a short entry.

USD/CHF 7:30pm:
Price popped above cloud for three bars before going back in. CMO came down to hit 50 at 4pm today and the price may be forming a short. If it does, I'll ignore this pair as well.

8pm update: CMO and TCF indicate short but TSI and Tenkan/Kijun do not.
10pm update: Price is going up again.