As of this morning:
- Cloud is somewhat thin and indicating things are going up (blue)
- The 4-6am bar that triggered my entry stop also is when the CMO hit the 50 line from above
- TCF lines have been skipping against each other all night
- TSI looks as if it is trying to go horizontal and its gap is thinning
- Tenkan/Kijun have formed a upwards channel. At this point time, the only way for these lines to cross is if the price drives down around 117.00.
Also, I noticed that trailing stops (volatility based for past seven periods) are tighter on the hour charts. But, those trailing stops don't pop me out early. I need to check on the other pairs if this is true. So, for right now, I'll set my trailing stops to the hour chart and all other signals will continue on the two hour chart.
So, I moved the stops on all three USD/JPY trades to 117.41.
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Update 6:30pm 3/20 -- Aftermath:
Well, I'm both irritated and intrigued.
Irritated as everything stopped out on a large downswing. The 117.54 lost $11.08, the 117.79 lost $32.38, and the 118 lost $50.27
Intrigued because I think I see a pattern. On the first entry stop (117.79) the ATR was 18 and the second entry stop's (118) ATR was 24. This led me to think the following:
- If I set entry stops at 1/2 ATR and 1 ATR after entering, I'll get in sooner.
- If I set a limit on the two entry stops and the initial position to two full ATRs above the first position's price, I can take profit at times I can't watch the market (at work and asleep)
- When should I set my entry stops? Should I wait a bit to see what's happening?
- Is that the best way to set limits? I could offset way too soon, but, I wouldn't be at a loss on big reversals.
I have no idea if setting this 2 ATR limit would've helped out only today or if it is a reoccurring pattern. Or if it only holds true to USD/JPY.
Much to think on.
