EUR/USD -

SAR and Heiken are indicating down but Alligator is intertwined.

However, the Alligator is showing signs that it is trying to form a short signal.

Might enter on a pull back.

Question: if the Alligator is only intertwined because it is in the process of forming the opposite direction, should I enter when the SAR and Heiken show the way? I would have gotten in much sooner on this downtrend.

USD/JPY -

Moved stop on long 120.82 to 119.74.

Update - 5/21 6:15pm EST - Moved stop on long 120.82 to 119.76.

GBP/USD -

No change in stop -- short 1.9797, stop 1.9926.

Alligator is widening.

Update - 5/21 6:17pm EST - Moved stop on short 1.9797 to 1.9909.

EUR/JPY -

Everything looks good on a long. But the SAR is too close to the price (which indicates that a pull back might happen). There was one pullback already on the 5/18 bar which hit the SAR. But if I'm setting stops on the 13 day line of the Alligator, it shouldn't be a problem.

Hmm, this might not be wise, but

Entered long at 163.46, stop 161.54.

Update - 5/21 6:19pm EST - Moved stop on long 163.46 to 161.55.

USD/CHF -

Moved stop -- long 1.2229 to 1.2107.
Long at 1.2230, stop 1.2138.

Update - 5/21 6:20pm EST - Moved stop on long 1.2229 to 1.2115.

EUR/CHF -

Entered long at 1.6557, stop 1.6415.

Update - 5/21 6:22pm EST - Moved stop on long 1.2229 to 1.2118.

AUD/USD - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/CAD -

5 and 8 day are not still intertwined and moving apart. Seems the main thing is the 13 day was away from the 5 and 8 day and still pointing down.

Might enter short on a pullback.

EUR/GBP -

5 day hit price line and I offsetted my long 0.6849 at 0.6824. Loss diff of 25 (which is really double on this pair).

I'm going to have to stop watching this pair. The patterns for the nice trends look the same at the start as the large whipsaws that have been going on for the past month.

This pair works much better on the 4 hour chart with my system.

Oh well.

EUR/USD -

SAR indicates up and Alligator is intertwined (but looking like it wants to go down.

Heiken is also indicating down.

Leaving alone for now.

USD/JPY -

Moved stop on long 120.82 to 119.69.

GBP/USD -

Moved stop -- short 1.9797, stop 1.9926.

EUR/JPY -

Continues to show long. Leaving alone for now.

USD/CHF -

I screwed up on this the other day. I entered two positions instead of one. Teach me for messing around while I'm nodding off.

Moved stop -- long 1.2229 to 1.2098.
Long at 1.2230, stop 1.2138.

EUR/CHF -

Continues to show long. Leaving alone for now.

AUD/USD - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/CAD -

5 and 8 day lines are still intertwined. Leaving alone.

EUR/GBP -

Long at 0.6849, stop 0.6808.

Got caught up and didn't post the other day.

Also mucked with the method used on the Alligator indicator keeping in mind that I offset when the 5 day hits the price line.

---------------

EUR/USD - Changed Alligator method to exponential and it is still intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/JPY -

Changed Alligator method to exponential.

It is indicating an uptrend. The 5 day crossed the price line and back again on 5/10, indicating the long started again. So. I'm entering a bit late.

Entered long at 120.82, stop 119.63.

GBP/USD -

Changed Alligator method to exponential.

Moved stop -- short 1.9797, stop 1.9932.

EUR/JPY -

Changed Alligator method to smoothed.

This too is giving signs of a long. I just don't like how close the 5 day is to the 8 day. Leaving alone for now.

USD/CHF -

Changed Alligator method to simple.

I was right to stay out. There was a pullback by the end of the 5/14 bar and the 5 day crossed the priceline and then back over.

Entered long at 1.2229, stop 1.2088.

EUR/CHF -

Changed Alligator method to smoothed.

This is acting like USD/CHF. As I'm playing with a new method of entering, I'm not going to enter too many similar pairs.

AUD/USD - Changed Alligator method to simple and it is still intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/CAD -

Changed Alligator method to simple.

5 and 8 day lines are still intertwined. Leaving alone.

EUR/GBP -

Changed Alligator method to smoothed.

Entered long at 0.6849, stop 0.6808.

Checking out the LiteForex features

I had grown used to the Heiken Ashi candles at CMS and after poking around some more with the LiteForex charts I found them under their "Custom Indicators". They looked ugly behind the traditional candles and bars. But, they do well behind a line depiction of the price.

This created a surprising effect when combined with the Alligator indicator they offer (see the fourth point below).

In messing around I found that I could set the Alligator indicator to use a Linear Weighted method based off of the closing price (I'm using the default period settings).

I liked what I found.

First, even though the period ranges are shorter (13, 8, and 5), I'm given good info and price direction.

Second, the selling point of the Alligator indicator is that when all the lines are close or intertwined ("the alligator's mouth is shut"), the market isn't going anywhere. Which would, if the talk is worth anything, keep one out of a whipsaw market.

Third, the indicator projects a few periods out from the current bar. Which is somewhat helpful in predictions.

Fourth, I noticed that when the fast line (green or "lips") crosses the price line (on a line chart), it tends to be a reliable exit signal.

So, based on the above ---

EUR/USD -

5 day hit price line and I offseted my short 1.3605 at 1.3544. Profit diff of 61.

Projected 5 and 8 day are moving to intertwine. 13 day is still well above the price. Leaving alone.

USD/JPY - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

GBP/USD -

Entered short at 1.9797, stop 1.9968.

I did so mainly because the SAR was far from the price (heh, watch me get burned with that again).

The Alligator is showing a good downtrend. However, if the price goes horizontal for a few days, my 5 day will hit it indicating a exit. This spooks me a bit but I noticed something. On 5/8 the 5 day hit the price line indicating an exit, but the trend continued. When that has happened at other points on this chart, the price tends to continue on the initial trend. So, something else to tinker with.

EUR/JPY - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/CHF -

Alligator is indicating a continued uptrend. However, the SAR is close to the price (tends to mean a pull back or reversal is due) and the projected 5 day is in the path of the price line.

Unless the price rockets upwards tomorrow, I think there will be a pull back. Considering how far the 13 day is from the other lines, I don't think it will be a true reversal.

EUR/CHF - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

AUD/USD - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

USD/CAD -

The 3 ("lips") and 5 ("teeth") day are intertwined while the 13 day ("jaws") is moving in towards the other two. Leaving alone.

EUR/GBP - Alligator is intertwined. Leaving alone.

Forgot to mention, the LiteForex day bar starts at 12am and not 5pm.

EUR/USD -

CMS Fx -

The 10 day has crossed below the 5 day and the 20 day has touched the 5 day. Considering that 20 and 40 days are still indicating a downtrend I'd be tempted to let it run. But, I'm eager to drop CMS Fx.

Offset short 1.3584 at 1.3543. Profit of 4.1

LiteForex -

Moved stop on short 1.3605 to 1.3596.

10 and 40 day are running very near the 5 day. If the price continues upwards I may need to offset.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex - SAR indicates short but all LRIs are indicating long. Watching.

GBP/USD -

LiteForex - Looks like I was right in that I placed the SAR too close (and my stop). The trend is continueing down. Not sure about entering since the downtrend has been going for 14 days.

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

Short 120.07 stopped out (162.43) - loss 5.9

Again, I got burned following just the SAR. Need to use them more as a stop indicator and a sub direction indicator to the LRIs.

While both the 10 and 20 days are above the 5 day, they are very close to the 5 day. Plus, the 40 day is a goodly distance from the 5 day. Thus indicating a pull back and not a reversal.

USD/CHF -

CMS Fx -

Both the 10 day and the 20 day have touched the 5 day. Considering that all LRIs are still indicating an uptrend I'd be tempted to let it run. But, I'm eager to drop CMS Fx.

Offset long 1.2142 at 1.2185. Profit of 4.3

LiteForex - Continuing uptrend.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex - Continuing uptrend

AUD/USD -

LiteForex - LRIs are still clustered closely together.

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

Again, I put more weight behind the SAR than the LRIs.

The SAR is indicating a downtrend and the LRIs on LiteForex's chart (as opposed to CMS Fx's) show the 40 day way above the 5 day (indicating a pretty strong downtrend,

Offset long 1.1117 at 1.1062. Loss of 7.4

EUR/GBP -

CMS Fx -

Short 120.07 stopped out (0.6801) - loss 3.4

LiteForex - I'm starting to think the only safe trades on this pair is when the 40 day swings way out from the 5 day.

NZD/USD -

CMS Fx -

Both the 10 day and the 20 day have crossed below the 5 day. Considering that both the 40 and 20 day are still indicating a downtrend I'd be tempted to let it run. But, I'm eager to drop CMS Fx.

Offset short 0.7428 at 0.7376. Profit of 5.2

-----------------

OK,

Done with CMS Fx. Also, after today I'm done with CMS' method of indicating profit or loss. It's just irratating. I'll just show the price diff.

Also, as new bars start at 12am, I'll most likely start checking in closer to that time to update my positions.

I may be entering some tonight.

EUR/USD -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop short 1.3584 to 1.3610

LiteForex -

No move in stop -- Short at 1.3605, stop 1.3623.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex - watching

GBP/USD -

LiteForex - watching

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

No move in stop -- Short at 162.43, stop 163.02.

USD/CHF -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop on long 1.2142 to 1.2110.

LiteForex - Continuing uptrend.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex - watching.

AUD/USD -

LiteForex - watching

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

No move in stop -- Long at 1.1117, stop 1.1043.

EUR/GBP -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 0.6801 stop 0.6835

LiteForex - watching

NZD/USD -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop short 0.7428 to 0.7410.

Well, as you'll see, I can't go off of the SAR alone. The SAR may show a reverse, but if the LRIs indicate otherwise, it is most likely just a pullback.

EUR/USD -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop short 1.3584 to 1.3624

LiteForex -

Short at 1.3605. Moved stop to 1.3623.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex -

Short 120.07 stopped out (120.14) - loss 0.56

I entered based on SAR reversal. However, the 20 and 40 day lines were well under the 5 day and the 10 day had just crossed over.

I tempted to think I need to pull my SAR back some, but I'm not sure. Seems I could take a SAR reversal as a sign to take profit and then wait for 2 or more SAR points in the direction that the LRIs indicate. hmmm

GBP/USD -

LiteForex -

Stop triggered for a -9.1 loss (1.9938 stop 1.9847).

There was no long, the SAR was too close. It knocked me out of my short the other day and I assumed a long had started.

Changed SAR to: step 0.0325 - max 1

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

Moved stop on short 162.43 to 163.02.

Changed SAR to use the same method as USD/JPY: step 0.5 - max 1

USD/CHF -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop on long 1.2142 to 1.2092.

LiteForex -

Continuing uptrend.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex -

Watching.

AUD/USD -

LiteForex - watching

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

Hmm, third long SAR. Gonna try it.

Entered long at 1.1117, stop 1.1043.

EUR/GBP -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 0.6801 stop 0.6835

LiteForex - Third short SAR, but I don't like how the LRIs are all bunched on the 5 day.

NZD/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 0.7428 stop 0.7419.

EUR/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 1.3584 stop 1.3637

LiteForex -

Short at 1.3605. Moved stop to 1.3639.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex -

Short at 120.07. Moved stop to 120.14.

GBP/USD -

CMS Fx -

Stop triggered for a 2.3 profit (2.0016 stop 1.9993).

LiteForex -

Stop triggered for a -2.2 loss (1.9957 stop 1.9979).

Entered long at 1.9938, stop 1.9847.

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

Changed SAR to: step 0.1 - max 1

Moved stop on short 162.43 to 163.38.

USD/CHF -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop on long 1.2142 to 1.2068.

LiteForex -

Continuing uptrend. Not sure where it is on that curve.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex -

Watching.

AUD/USD -

LiteForex - watching

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

Second long signal, but have too many things in the fire to enter. But the 40 makes me worry about entering a long at this point.

EUR/GBP -

CMS Fx -

Moved stop on short 0.6801 stop 0.6835

LiteForex - Second short signal but this pair worries me.

NZD/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 0.7428 stop 0.7419.

EUR/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 1.3584 stop 1.3637

LiteForex -

Short at 1.3605. Moved stop to 1.3648.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex -

Short at 120.07. Moved stop to 120.19.

GBP/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- 2.0016 stop 1.9993.

LiteForex -

Short at 1.9957. Moved stop to 1.9979.

Changed SAR to: step 0.0325 - max 1

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

Changed SAR to: step 0.1 - max 1

Entered short on 5/9 at 162.43. Current stop is 163.43.

USD/CHF -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- 1.2142 stop to 1.2054.

LiteForex -

Continuing uptrend. Not sure where it is on that curve.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex -

Fiddling with the SAR: step 0.25 - max 1

Looks to be a long, but I want to watch it a bit.

AUD/USD -

CMS Fx -

Stop triggered for a 5.9 profit (0.8344, stop 0.8285). Because the chart still has bad data I don't know if I had an exit signal last night or what. This should have been a much larger profit.

I trade chart signals and if the chart data is bad.... well, I'm not going to trade with CMS Fx.

LiteForex -

Hit my stop: short 0.8245, stop 0.8263 for a -1.8 loss. Need to fiddle with my SAR? Looks like it is shaping up for a long.

All in all, this chart looks way different than the CMS Fx chart. When I entered on the CMS Fx, everything looked like a strong short. With the LiteForex, that just isn't so. The 40 day is way, way below all the other lines on the LiteForex.

I'm going to watch this for a bit. But I think I could enter long now.

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

Still going down for now.

EUR/GBP -

CMS Fx -

The long order was stopped out for a -4.1 loss (0.6830, stop 0.6789).
Short continues with no change in stop - 0.6801 stop 0.6847.

LiteForex -

Watching and testing SAR

NZD/USD -

CMS Fx -

No move in stop -- short 0.7428 stop 0.7419.

Don't you hate it when you're 75% done with a large post and your computer BSODs?

Yeah, me too.

========================

LiteForex's LRIs don't indicate if they are going up or down (other than the way that they are pointing). However, their parabolic SAR indicators are real nice. They look to be able to show entry, exit, and stop. In some cases they look to show where one may add to a position. I'll be playing with them a great deal.

I'll continue my open positions in CMS Fx and once they are done, I'll be done with that broker.

EUR/USD -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.0175 and max - 1

Entered short on 5/7 at 1.3605. Current stop is 1.3658.

CMS Fx -

Moved short 1.3584 stop to 1.3637.

USD/JPY -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.05 and max - 1

Entered short on 5/8 at 120.07. Current stop is 120.47.

CMS Fx -

Looks to be shaping up for a short.

GBP/USD -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.0375 and max - 1

Entered short on 5/7 at 1.9957. Current stop is 1.9990.

CMS Fx -

Moved short 2.0016 stop to 1.9993.

EUR/JPY -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.07 and max - 1

Uptrend continues.

CMS Fx -

Uptrend continues.

USD/CHF -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.045 and max - 1

Uptrend continues.

CMS Fx -

Moved long 1.2142 stop to 1.2054.

EUR/CHF -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.0425 and max - 1

SAR is indicating a short, but I'm not sure of its current settings.

CMS Fx -

Indicating a short as well.

AUD/USD -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.05 and max - 1

Entered short on 5/7 at 0.8245. Current stop is 0.8263.

CMS Fx -

Chart data is still screwed up. All indicators are suspect.

Moved short 0.8344 stop to 0.8285.

USD/CAD -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.275 and max - 1

Downtrend continues. Need to tinker with the SAR on this.

CMS Fx -

Downtrend continues.

EUR/GBP -

LiteForex -

Parabolic SAR: step - 0.0175 and max - 1

Uptrend continues. Need to tinker with the SAR on this.

CMS Fx -

No changes in stops:
long 0.6830 stop 0.6789.
short hedge 0.6801 stop 0.6847.

CAD/JPY -

LiteForex -

Not available through LiteForex.

CMS Fx -

Uptrend continues.

NZD/USD -

LiteForex -

Not available through LiteForex.

CMS Fx -

Moved short 0.7428 stop to 0.7419.

Downtrend continues and all LRIs are indicating the same.

Worrisome

I've been happy with CMS FX's demo account and was thinking I'd enter a real money account if all my positions work out.

However, a very worrisome thing happened on Friday. The charts were unavailable.

hmmm

I used the VT trader online help forums and it indicated a connectivity problem with CMS. Well, as the market is closed I don't *really* care as long as the charts are back before market open on Sunday.

Well, it is well past market open on Sunday and the charts are unavailable. For all I know there could have been a massive reverse that I could have acted on... but as I can't see the blasted charts, I don't know.

So, in googling around to see if maybe there might possibly be a problem with my wireless router I found this site: goforex.net

They have reviews of various brokers and the CMS review has a few posts on their unavailability. I'm going to dig around some more (goforex looks to be like amazon where competitors can post all sorts of odd stuff), but if turns out that CMS has problems with unavailability, I'll be going with another broker.

--------

Digging around for more broker reviews -

forexrealm.com

forexbastards.com

As of 7pm EST, CMS FX charts are still unavailable.

--------

As of 8:11pm EST, CMS FX charts are still unavailable.

This is intolerable.

---------

Looking at the following brokers:

liteforex.org

finex.com

rfxt.com

---------

As of 10:30pm EST, CMS FX charts are still unavailable.

Not gonna put any money with CMS.

Testing out liteforex... little more work to get their stuff setup. I should have things set up ok in a day or two.

---------

OK, this is just silly. At 8:20am EST this morning I was able to get into the CMS charts. I think I'll just watch the trades that I had put in and once they finish I'll just drop CMS. But that isn't the silly part.

First, all my indicators are gone. That happens on VT trader when one upgrades, but I didn't upgrade....=\

Second, after putting in all of my indicators again, I'm going through my positions and notice AUD/USD's 5/7 bar... hi: 0.8257, close: 0.8257, open: -0.0005 (!!!), and low: -0.0005 (!!!).

Note, that error only shows up on the chart. My open position's window shows that there must have been a reversal as my profit is much less.

This is nutty. Every time I think I'm being silly for testing out a system or a broker for so long, something like this happens and makes me go...hmmmmmm.

EUR/USD -

Moved short 1.3584 stop to 1.3688.

Downtrend continues and all LRIs except the 40 are indicating the same.

USD/JPY -

40 day line has moved away from the 5 day and looks like it will continue the uptrend.

Looks like entering a long when the 10 day crossed on 4/24 would have been safe. At that time only the 40 day was showing an uptrend (since 3/30). Is the 40 day direction what should be watched for entering this pair? Scrolling back over the history, that doesn't look safe when the price is whipsawing. Perhaps only when the 20 day (and maybe the 10 day are above the 40 day (for longs)?

The uptrend has gone on long enough that I'm not sure if I should enter a long. This points out, yet again, that I need to come up with a plan on how to add to a position on long running trends (or when to enter the same). I'm still thinking the 10 day crossing and then crossing back with all LRIs indicating an uptrend might be a good idea to test out.

GBP/USD -

Moved short 2.0016 stop to 2.0069.

Downtrend continues and all LRIs are indicating the same.

EUR/JPY -

All LRIs are flowing very close to the 5 day. With the 40 and 10 days above the 5 day (indicating a short). The 20 day has crossed the 5 day with the unformed 5/4 bar.

All LRIs are indicating an uptrend.

Based on the height of the TSI (37.8) and the LRIs over the 5 day, I'd say a short signal is coming. But as USD/JPY continues up, I'm thinking this pair will continue up for a bit more.

USD/CHF -

Moved long 1.2142 stop to 1.2025.

Uptrend continues and all LRIs are indicating the same.

EUR/CHF -

The 40 and 10 days above the 5 day and the 20 day is still below.

All LRIs are indicating an uptrend.

This too is looking to go short soon based on the height of the TSI (34.8).

AUD/USD -

Moved short 0.8344 stop to 0.8317.

Downtrend continues and all LRIs are indicating the same.

USD/CAD -

The 10 and 20 day lines are below the 5 day with the 40 day flowing closer.

All LRIs are indicating an downtrend.

A long will be coming soon. Perhaps a nice one. TSI is at -66.9

EUR/GBP -

Continues to futz around. LRIs still indicate an uptrend.

No changes in stops:
long 0.6830 stop 0.6789.
short hedge 0.6801 stop 0.6847.

CAD/JPY -

All LRIs are flowing very close to the 5 day. All the LRIs are below the 5 day up to the current unformed 5/4 bar. On that bar the 10 day has crossed above the 5 day.

All LRIs are indicating an uptrend.

Based on the height of the TSI (49.6) , I'd say a short signal is coming.

NZD/USD -

Moved short 0.7428 stop to 0.7453.

Downtrend continues and all LRIs are indicating the same.

Is it working?

I've held off posting about my holdings as the past several were failures. But, I think I'm on to something here.

AUD/USD -

Entered short on 4/22 at 0.8344. Current stop is 0.8348.

I entered based on my idea that if the LRIs are all clustered I can ignore that they are indicating that the trend is going the other way.

On 4/18 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/19 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/20 the 40 day crossed. In the past I was thinking that if they crossed but were indicating an ongoing trend, I should wait for the 10 day to cross the 5 day and back again. That has occured on AUD/USD (4/30 and 5/2) but not on NZD/USD which mirrors AUD/USD. The issue with entering like this is that the price swings around a good bit before going in the predicted direction. NOTE: I'm assuming it will go in the predicted direction at this point... I'll know more in the days ahead.

On 4/24 the 10 day indicated the price was going down, on 4/25 the 20 day did the same, and on 40 day indicated downtrend today as well.

NZD/USD -

Entered short on 4/24 at 0.7428. Current stop is 0.7475.

Again, this pair nearly mirrors AUD/USD and the both of them can be looked at to get an idea on how the other will act.

On 4/19 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/23 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/24 the 40 day crossed.

On 4/25 the 10 day indicated the price was going down, the 20 day did the same briefly on 4/30 and today, and the 40 day indicated downtrend today as well.

GBP/USD -

Entered short on 4/24 at 2.0016. Current stop is 2.0104.

On 4/20 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/24 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/25 the 40 day crossed.

On 4/25 the 10 day indicated the price was going down, the 20 day today, and the 40 day has yet to indicate a downtrend.

This pair also had the 10 day cross the 5 day briefly (5/1) before crossing back over at the start of the 5/3 bar (NOTE: Don't fully trust crosses on incomplete bars).

EUR/USD -

Entered short on 5/2 at 1.3584. Starting stop is 1.3694.

I waited to see what the first 3 pairs would do before entering this one.

On 4/19 the 10 day crossed the 5 day and did a brief hop back and forth on 4/27 and 5/1. On 4/23 the 20 day crossed. And on 4/30 the 40 day crossed.

On 4/24 the 10 day briefly indicated the price was going down and turned down again on the 5/3 bar, same with the 20 day, and the 40 day has yet to indicate a downtrend.

EUR/GBP -

Signs indicated that this pair was done with its five day period whipsaws, so I entered long.

Entered long on 4/27 at 0.6830. Starting/current stop is 0.6789.

On 4/23 the 10 day crossed the 5 day. On 4/24 both the 20 and 40 days crossed.

On 5/1 the 10 day crossed back over and all the LRIs were still indicating an uptrend. Yesterday, the 20 day indicated a down trend and as this pair is $20 a pip I decided to hedge.

Entered short hedge on 5/1 at 0.6801. Starting/current stop is 0.6847.

The price is still futzing around so I'm not sure what's up. It does look like I was right the first time and it will continue up, but this pair can be funny when it isn't on a long trend.

USD/JPY -

Looks like it is on an uptrend that started when the 10 day crossed on 4/24.

I've not entered this one as the 40 day is hanging close to the 5 day. It crossed the 5 day on 4/19 (indicating a short) but has continued to point up (indicating a uptrend). Then it crossed back under the 5 day on 4/30 and still indicates an uptrend. But it is running very close to the 5 day. That can lead to some very unpredictable behavior. So, I'm not going to bother.

EUR/JPY -

Acting very much like USD/JPY and I'm staying out for the same reason.

USD/CHF -

Entered long on 5/2 at 1.2142. Starting/current stop is 1.2019.

This is a very volatile pair. Which means mistakes are expensive.

The 10 day crossed on 4/20 indicating a long. However, price action after that would have knocked me out. So, it was a better exit short signal.

The 20 day crossed on 4/26. Looking at the chart that looked to be an ok entry, but the 20 and 40 were indicating a long was a bad idea.

The 40 day crossed on 5/1. At this point the 10 and 20 days were indicating an uptrend, but it still struck me as odd.

By the close of the 5/2 bar the 40 day was indicating an uptrend as well.

EUR/CHF -

Acting very much like USD/JPY and I'm staying out for the same reason.

USD/CAD -

Is on a very long downtrend. However, the 10 and 20 days have hung very close to the 5 day crossing every now and again. The 40 day is slowly moving closer to the 5 day as well.

I think a reversal is coming. Not sure when.

CAD/JPY -

Acting very much like USD/JPY and I'm staying out for the same reason.

-------

Note, I'm using the TSI as sort of a weathervane. On many pairs, if the trend starts down, it will not reverse until sometime after it passes the zero line. Not all pairs though. I'm still trying to nail that one down. Also, several of the above pairs have crossed the 25/-25 line on the TSI... gone well past it. So, like on EUR/USD and a few others, I think I may be in for some nice, long trends.

Time will tell.

More tinkering

Blasted allergies are laying me low.

--------------

Well, my fears about the intraday charts were confirmed. I got zapped on a short EUR/GBP that should have been very profitable. The price reversed when I was unable to keep an eye on things.

So, back to the day charts for all of them.

Again, I'm using four LRIs (5, 10, 20, and 40). Generally, when one of the longer term lines crosses the five day line a exit/entry signal is given.

A feature with the CMS charts is that one can have the LRIs change color when they are going up or down. I've found some additional meaning when they are highlighted this way. For example, when the ten day crosses the five day from below it would normally signal a exit long and enter short. But, if both the twenty and forty lines are pointing up this is most likely a small correction and the price will continue. The only exception to this is if the ten, twenty, and forty day lines are clustered together when they cross the five day line. Careful though, EUR/USD will have the twenty and forty clustered and still continue. I think the difference is when the forty line holds tight to the five day line as opposed to shooting past it.

The tricky bit is how much weight should be given if one or two of the lines are indicating one direction and the others are not.

Another item that has caught me during sideways movement is when the twenty and/or forty line changes directions while staying on one side of the five day. Especially when an entry signal is given. For instance, a short entry is given but the twenty and forty lines are going up. Three or more bars go by and both the twenty and forty lines reverse. I've found that this does not mean that a short can now be entered. More likely the price will jerk around some more and you should consider yourself lucky if you can get out with any kind of profit.

I need to figure out if there is a one size fits all approach to stops and exits.

Progress

I'll know more tomorrow (as I'm working from home and can watch the market), but I may have a workable and simple system put together.

Instead of the two LRIs, I'm using four. One for 5,10,20, and 40 periods.

The hangup I was dealing with was looking at all the spreads with the same timeframe.

One of things I'll be testing is what timeframes work best with each spread. At this point I have the following:

Four hours:
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and EUR/GBP

One day:
EUR/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, USD/CAD, and CAD/JPY

There are exceptions if I am able to watch the market during the day. When that is the case, I'll watch USD/JPY on the two hour chart and USD/CAD on the four hour chart.

I've also changed how I handle stops. I now look at the ATR of the previous period and subtract it from the low if I'm going long or add it to the high if I'm going short. The current exception to this is with EUR/GBP where I use a half ATR.

For the spreads that work better for the intra-day charts I'll still run into the problem when the market moves and I'm not there to act on it. Not sure how I'm going to deal with that.

Still Tinkering

Well, it would seem my original system is better if I can watch the market during the day and I don't have that option now.

I looked around for brokers that offered web based trading as that has a better chance of getting through my employer's firewall. I found a bunch of complaints that web based tools were error prone. So, I don't think I'm going to go that route.

That puts me back where I started. Where I'm watching the day charts so that the intraday stuff doesn't pull me off track.

Question is what will give good signals on the day charts?

I'm testing something right now along the lines of keeping things simple. I'm using two Linear Regression Indicators (LRI). One as a signal line (5 days by close) and the other as the primary (25 days by close). I've tried using the lines by close and by median and I can't decide which is better.

Anyways, as I'm testing things, a buy signal is thrown when my "signal" line crosses my primary from below and a short is thrown when it crosses from above. This is modified a bit by the primary LRI as I've set it up to show different colors when it is trending up or down. So, if a short signal is thrown but the primary LRI indicates that the price is still going up, don't enter a short.

I've noticed that positions should be entered soon after a signal because the price move may be over after a few bars.

I'm also playing with my trailing stops. Presently set to a 2 ATR lookback, 2.25 ATR multiplier, and a 7 period lookback. I'm aiming for something that gives good profit on stop out (as I've yet to figure out what prices I should set limits for) and also acts as a bit of an indicator (as it tends to arch away from the price at entry points).

As I'm using the day charts, it takes a while to test out systems. Still trying to see if this one works.

Interesting side note: when I was looking for info on web based trading I found a few Swiss forex brokers. Seems there is no cap gains tax when you trade with them. Think I'll keep that in mind when I build a workable system.

Tinkering

Changed the parms on the Ichimoku

• Tenkan - 3
  
• Kijun - 7
  
• Senkou Span B - 21

Sitting back and watching for now.

EUR/USD

I've entered a EUR/USD long at 1.3316 with a stop of 1.3292.

I'm thinking that I'd rather wait and see how the market acts instead of just setting an entry stop.

Should it look like it's going up I'll add at least one entry stop. I need to look at this pair a little more before I start adding limits as well. Seems there can be some long hall trends.

--------

Wed update 8am:

Just when I think I'm starting to get a handle on all of this, I realize that I don't.

=\

EUR/USD long 1.3316 stopped out. Loss of $24

Note on EUR/USD: Don't open a long over a red (short) cloud or a short under a long (blue) cloud.

USD/JPY

My long 118.oo USD/JPY entry stop was triggered, so I have three positions open with USD/JPY.

As of this morning:

• Cloud is somewhat thin and indicating things are going up (blue)
• The 4-6am bar that triggered my entry stop also is when the CMO hit the 50 line from above
• TCF lines have been skipping against each other all night
• TSI looks as if it is trying to go horizontal and its gap is thinning
• Tenkan/Kijun have formed a upwards channel. At this point time, the only way for these lines to cross is if the price drives down around 117.00.
  

Based on the outcome of these trades I need to determine if I want a full ATR indicating when I should add to my position or maybe a half ATR.

Also, I noticed that trailing stops (volatility based for past seven periods) are tighter on the hour charts. But, those trailing stops don't pop me out early. I need to check on the other pairs if this is true. So, for right now, I'll set my trailing stops to the hour chart and all other signals will continue on the two hour chart.

So, I moved the stops on all three USD/JPY trades to 117.41.

---------------

Update 6:30pm 3/20 -- Aftermath:

Well, I'm both irritated and intrigued.

Irritated as everything stopped out on a large downswing. The 117.54 lost $11.08, the 117.79 lost $32.38, and the 118 lost $50.27

Intrigued because I think I see a pattern. On the first entry stop (117.79) the ATR was 18 and the second entry stop's (118) ATR was 24. This led me to think the following:

1. If I set entry stops at 1/2 ATR and 1 ATR after entering, I'll get in sooner.
2. If I set a limit on the two entry stops and the initial position to two full ATRs above the first position's price, I can take profit at times I can't watch the market (at work and asleep)

That leads to the questions of:

• When should I set my entry stops? Should I wait a bit to see what's happening?
• Is that the best way to set limits? I could offset way too soon, but, I wouldn't be at a loss on big reversals.

Very interesting stuff.

I have no idea if setting this 2 ATR limit would've helped out only today or if it is a reoccurring pattern. Or if it only holds true to USD/JPY.

Much to think on.

Forex

EUR/USD 7:30pm:
CMO has hit zero and TCF lines have crossed indicating a long. TSI and the Tenkan/Kijun lines still indicate the short continues. The price is in the cloud which is very tall.

8pm update: Tenkan/Kijun lines have crossed and indicate a long as well. Chikou Span indicates that this is a weak signal. Will check in at 10pm.

USD/JPY 7:30pm:
The CMO hit the -50 from above at 10am this morning (the bar after I entered). In the past I chalked this up to entry turbulance, but the past trade has me wondering. CMO has hit the zero line and the TCF lines have crossed. TSI and Tenkan/Kijun lines indicate that the long continues. Clouds are small to moderate in height. Not sure what to think here.

8pm update: from around 7:40pm to just before 8pm I saw the price go from around 117.31 to around 117.66 before settling at 117.62. Crazy. If the price hits around 117.79, I'll look to add to my position.

8:55pm update: And lo did my entry stop get triggered. Entered a second USD/JPY at 117.79 (4pips over the day's high and 1 ATR over the open price of the 8-10pm bar) with a stop of 116.67.
10pm update: Set an entry stop for USD/JPY118.08 in case it climes like mad.
12am update: Can't leave well enough alone. Based on price movement and thus a change in ATR size, I've modified my entry stop to 118.00 and moved all stops to 116.92. Hopefully no odd price movements overnight.

AUD/USD 7:30pm:
Continues upwards.

8pm update: Strange. All indicators are showing a strong uptrend, but the CMO is moving down towards the 50 line. Is an exit coming up? Or is that just noise?
10pm update: CMO has hit the zero line and the TSI lines indicate a short. But the Tenkan/Kijun and TCF say the long continues.

EUR/JPY 7:30pm:
Acting like USD/JPY. Very thin clouds.

8pm update: Same

NZD/USD 7:30pm:
Continues upwards with thinning clouds.

8pm update: CMO has hit the 50 line from above. Valid offset signal?
10pm update: Matches the AUD/USD 10pm update except that the TCF is also indicating a short entry.

USD/CHF 7:30pm:
Price popped above cloud for three bars before going back in. CMO came down to hit 50 at 4pm today and the price may be forming a short. If it does, I'll ignore this pair as well.

8pm update: CMO and TCF indicate short but TSI and Tenkan/Kijun do not.
10pm update: Price is going up again.

Day After

EUR/USD has just entered clouds from above
USD/JPY continues upwards and looks like a good long
AUD/USD short signals are gone
EuR/JPY is showing long signals, but weaker than USD/JPY
NZD/USD is acting like a weaker version of AUD/USD
GBP/USD now has given a long signal. I'll ignore this one as well.
USD/CHF looks like a long. If I were trading it I'd enter long at 1.2120

Entered long USD/JPY 117.54 with a stop of 116.19

I've yet to have seen anything to explain the very large price moves on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Hopefully, something useful will show up today.

------

From poking around - when the Nikkei 225 goes up, the yen goes down.

hmm

Market opens

EUR/USD:
Has formed a short (CMO crossed zero line, TSI lines have no gap, TCF has crossed, and Tenkan/Kijun lines have small gap and moving upwards together) but is well above the cloud still. Mixed messages on this one Chikou Span indicates a weak signal and price is well above the clouds.

USD/JPY:
Woah! Price just shot down to 116.29 (as of this writing 6:10pm) from close on Friday of 116.77. Price action is wholly under the cloud. The Chikou Span is indicating a strong short. I'm adding to my position.

AUD/USD:
Cloud is not as tall after market open. This pair is looking like it wants to signal a short too, but zero line has not been hit (very close), TCF hasn't crossed (close as well), TSI has no gap, but Tenkan/Kijun is nowhere near crossing.

EUR/JPY:
Hmm, price is dropping fast. All action on the 4-6pm bar is in the cloud which is very tall. Chikou Span is strengthening the short signal. Both TSI and TCF lines are starting to gap. I'm a little hesitant to enter due to the tall cloud and recent price action. However, the chart looks very much like 2/25. A very good short run started that day.... but the cloud thinned significantly. If this was a real money account, I'd probably pass. But, as this is a practice account, I'm going to see if I'm being silly in the face of a good run or not.

NZD/USD :
Looks like it is trying to form a short.

GBP/USD (not trading, just watching):
The downtrend strengthens. If I were trading this I would enter a short at 1.9393 with a stop of 1.9463.

USD/CHF (not trading, just watching):
My original system indicates a long (CMO hit zero and TCF has crossed). However, the TSI is still indicating a short, but with a small gap. Tenkan/Kijun has not crossed. Mixed signals all around. Price is well under the cloud and Chikou Span is indicating a stronger long signal. If I were trading this, I'd wait and see.

-------

Entered short EUR/JPY 154.88 with a stop of 155.89 (total risk of around $85).
Entered short USD/JPY 116.28 with a stop of 117.54 (total risk of around $110).

-------

Update 3/18 10pm

Well, that was irritating.

*Huge* jump in the price back up on both EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.

A few things come to mind:
1) Never enter into similar pairs at the same time (i.e EUR/JPY & USD/JPY).
2) Never enter on a EUR/JPY signal when the cloud is so tall
3) I need to pay attention to the Chikou Span on USD/JPY
4) Adding to a position needs 2-3 more days in the right direction and the right side of the cloud.

My USD/JPY's have not stopped out yet. The only reason is because I didn't move the stops down at the last period. At this point, I think the CMO's hitting of the -50 line at 8am 3/16 was a real offset signal. I closed out both USD/JPY positions.

EUR/JPY reversed and hit its stop for a loss of $86.31.
USD/JPY closed out by hand. Loss $6.82
USD/JPY closed out by hand. Loss $83.60

grrr

Old system is indicating USD/JPY has gone long. The 8-10pm period broke through the top of the cloud. But, the Tenkan/Kijun are running together and the Chikou Span is saying the signal is weak.

I'll be digging around in the FT and FXStreet tomorrow morning to find out WTF was going on this evening.

Further thoughts

I was thinking a bit more on trades my system doesn't work well with and that I should probably list out what I'm going to give the most attention.

But first I want to talk about the Ichimoku Kinko Huo (Hyo) signal I started using late last week.

A good overview can be found here.

It consists of 5 lines: Senkou Span lines A & B, Tenkan Line, Kijun Line, and the Chikou Span.

The gap between Senkou Span lines A & B form a "cloud". These clouds have several nifty traits.

• Price action above the clouds indicates an uptrend and the reverse is true of downtrends
• The Senkou Span lines form two support levels if the price is moving above them and resistance levels if the price is below
• Long signals occurring above them are supposed to be stronger and the reverse is true of short signals

The Tenkan Line and Kijun Line act like moving average lines. A long signal is given when the Tenkan crosses the Kijun from underneath the Kijun (short signal is when the Tenkan crosses the Kijun from above).

The Chikou Span highlights the current period's price compared to the price a set number of periods in the past. It indicates the strength of a signal. A long signal is strengthened if the Chikou Span is above price activity of the set past period (short is strengthened on the opposite)


With regards to using it with my current system: I may have found a way to signal adding to an open position as distance away from the cloud may be a sign. At present it looks like if the Tenkan/Kijun crossover happens before my original signals, my entry signals are strengthened. If the Tenkan/Kijun crossover happens more than a couple periods after my original signals, my signals are weakened. It would seem that entry signals that occur when the price is in the clouds is rather untrustworthy (sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't). Lastly, the Chikou Span really does a good job on showing the strength of an entry signal. If short signal is thrown and the Chikou Span is equal too or greater than the last 4+ period's price action, think twice about entering.

On the CMS charts, I've set the indicator properties to:

• Tenkan - 3
• Kijun - 12
• Senkou Span B - 24

---------------------------------------------

On to a quick look through of the items with <6pip spreads on CMS:

EUR/USD - Works well.
My CMO has indicated that some trades should be exited even though the trend was ongoing. It appears that should the CMO indicate an exit, but the price action is not in the clouds, I can keep the position open. The offset signal appears to be strengthened if the price is in the clouds.

USD/JPY - Undecided yet on use of Ichimoku with my original system which looks good on the two day charts.

AUD/USD - Looks good except except entering when the price doesn't move for several days in a row.
Entry signals with tall clouds should be ignored until the clouds shrink and the CMO hits the zero line again (waiting until the trend reverses would be safer). Beware short entry signals over blue clouds on the CMS charts (likewise be careful of long signals under red clouds). If both the TSI and Tenkan/Kijun lines have little to no gap and are repeatedly crossing, wait until the price action moves farther away from the clouds (in the direction you're looking for) than it had been moving. No need to wait for the CMO to hit the zero line again in this case. Beware of entry signals if the price has gone horizontal for more than 5 days. Offset signals are likely to come while the trend is still ongoing. Not positive of this, but, exit if two offset signals show in 2-4 periods.

EUR/JPY - Looks OK.
Tall clouds make for some questionable/rocky entry signals. The Tenkan/Kijun crossovers after entry can be ignored if there was a major price move in the past 3-4 periods and TSI indicates an ongoing trend in the correct direction. When the TSI and Tenkan/Kijun gaps are very thin to non-existent, check the price action compared to the clouds. If the clouds are indicating that the trend is ongoing, calm down. Offset signals are likely to come while the trend is still ongoing. Not positive of this, but, exit if two offset signals show up in 3-4 periods.

NZD/USD - Looks OK
Generally ignore my old system for entry signals and use the Ichimoku. Do not enter longs below clouds or shorts above them. Be careful when price has been moving horizontal for a while. CMO works most of the time. I saw a couple cases where it exited early, but for the most part the CMO worked fine on exits.

GBP/USD - Not sure about this pair. I'll watch and not trade this pair.
My system works sometimes and then fails. The Ichimoku on its own does the same. Looking at a few months of price action, it looks like the price tends to run in a tight channel and then quickly bumps up or down for a very short period (with the occasional very exciting day or three).

USD/CHF - Not all that sure of this one. I'll watch and not trade this pair.
Tall clouds make for some questionable/rocky entry signals. The Tenkan/Kijun crossovers seem to have less significance. Offset signals are unreliable. Not positive of this, but, exit if two offset signals show up in 2-6 periods.

EUR/CHF - I'll continue to ignore this pair.
My original system works around half the time. The Ichimoku system has better entry signals. The offset signals of both systems rarely work and relying on entry signals in the reverse direction pretty much nulls any profit.

USD/CAD - Very unreliable signals. I will ignore this pair.

EUR/GBP - Very unreliable signals. I will ignore this pair.

--------------------------------------

So, where do we stand?

EUR/USD:
It is currently on an uptrend that started on 3/12. The CMO has hit the 50 line from above twice now (3/16 at 2am and 10pm). Price had pulled very far from the clouds Friday morning and started easing towards them in the late afternoon. The TSI lines had no gap at 6pm 3/6. Considering how very far the price action is from the clouds, I think I could enter a long but I'll just watch due to the age of the trend.

USD/JPY:
My short from 10pm 3/15 at 117.18 (stop 117.54) continues. Price exited the bottom of the cloud 8am on Friday, but then hopped back in. Update (3/18): just noticed that the Chikou Span was signaling that the short I entered on was weak ...hmmm. The CMO had come up to hit -50 8am 3/16, but I had ignored it due to how young the position was.

AUD/USD:
It is currently on a strong uptrend that started on 3/14. Clouds are getting taller on the chart.

EUR/JPY:
Short signal came at 8am 3/16 and the price touched the top of the cloud at 6pm. Cloud was tall at 8am and has grown significantly. CMO is bouncing around zero and the Chikou Span indicated the signal was very weak. I want to see what the price does when the market opens at 5pm tomorrow before doing anything.

NZD/USD :
It is currently on an uptrend that that was signaled on 3/14 while under the cloud. Later that day the price went over the cloud and the trend continues.

GBP/USD (not trading, just watching):
Short signal came up late Friday above the cloud. Chikou Span strengthens the short signal. The cloud is moderate sized.

USD/CHF (not trading, just watching):
Short formed 10am 3/15 on a bar that spanned the cloud. The downtrend looks to be weakening.

Tinkering

Offset my long USD/JPY 117.72 at 117.11 for a loss of $51.85. That is the last time I use the day charts. They are too slow to show direction.

Entered a short USD/JPY at 117.18 with a stop of 118 based on the two hour chart.

I'm going to go with the two hour charts for the time being.

EUR/GBP started to form a long at 10am this morning (after I left for work...grrr) and around 7pm started to shoot up. It continues to do so and after being burned for entering late I'm not sure if I want to enter long right now. Perhaps if there is a large pull back at 10pm or tomorrow morning I'll check all the signals again.

USD/CHF is a sell side mirror image of EUR/GBP.

All the rest with <6pips are on continuing trends.

Observations

I found some interesting things when looking at different time periods on USD/JPY.

My signals, as described on my 3/3/7 post, work pretty well on the shorter periods with the exception of my trailing stops. However, when I bumped up my ATR multiplier to four, it looks like it still works.

Items of note:

* The two hour period charts look to anticipate the market better without running into the problem of hitting major reversals while I'm at work or asleep
* The four hour chart is slower to show where the market is going than the two hour, but is way better than the day chart
* The hour chart looks to exit positions before the trend is through
* The half hour chart gives a few funny signals
* The fifteen minute chart makes me wish I had all day to watch and trade forex. Very nice signals throughout the day.

So, I think I'm going to go off of the two hour charts from now on with a focus on the 3pip (EUR/USD and USD/JPY with CMS) , 4pip (EUR/JPY and GBP/USD with CMS), and some of the 5pips. Note, CMS adjusts the pip rates +/- 1 every few minutes based on some formula.

I'm also thinking I may try my hand with the 15 minute charts this weekend.

Update:

Entered a short EUR/GBP 0.6819 with a stop of 0.6892 (risk of $102.82 on a full reversal) on the two hour chart. This is a 5pip spread.

I'm entering a bit late as my signals indicate that the enter short signal went off at noon. 0.6836 close on the noon bar.

Later Update:

Yes, I did enter late... too late. EUR/GBP stopped out at a loss of $76.65

Started to use the Ichimoku Kinko Huo signal this evening. When I plugged it in, I saw that the long had formed shortly after I entered my sell.

Ehh

Ugly

Another problem with entering too soon.

My 118.39 USD/JPY hit its stop of 116.34. Loss of $173.22.

My 117.72 USD/JPY is still in play with its stop of 114.40.

Not sure what USD/JPY is doing. The TSI has no gap, but the CMO continues up and the TCF's gap is closing.

I think I'll start looking at the 1, 2, and 4 hour charts. I stayed away from them before because I can not look at the market while at work (blasted firewalls).

Sloppy

When I entered USD/JPY I was just eyeballing the chart.

Seems that the CMO did not hit the zero line the other day.

It was at -5.

So today, when the zero line was hit, the price closed out at 117.70.

In an irritable fit, I took another long position at 117.72 (which should have been my first position) with a stop of 114.40 (risk of $282 on full reversal).

Actually, that is another sign I forgot to mention. The trailing stops I use (TS) tend to have a sharp dip opposite to the trend on the specific period that the entry signal is given.

The last 24 hour period had a rather large hump in the TS (see my 114.40 stop). Presently my TS is showing 116.34, but that will probably change in the next 24 hours.

---------------------------------

Let's see how my other predictions fared....

EUR/USD: Weak downtrend.
USD/JPY: All indicators say enter long
GBP/USD: No long signal yet
USD/CHF: Weak uptrend
EUR/JPY: TCF has crossed over. So, CMO and TCF are in agreement on a long signal. TSI is a hair or two away from crossing
GBP/JPY: CMO and TSI are in agreement on a long signal. TCF's gap is closing
EUR/GBP: Still don't know what to think. TSI is very weak and both the TCF and CMO are meandering around
USD/CAD: Same. The CMO has hit the zero line but neither TSI nor TCF have indicated a short
AUD/USD: All indicators say enter long
EUR/CAD: Very weak TSI. Looks like its "downtrend" continues
EUR/AUD: Short continues.
GBP/CHF: CMO has hit the zero line and so a long signal is given, but TSI looks very weak and untrustworthy.
CHF/JPY: Weird. CMO is still under zero (-0.339 at the time of this writing) and TSI has not crossed. No entry signal
AUD/CAD: Continues to futz and I will now ignore it.
AUD/JPY: Continues its long
NZD/USD: All indicators say enter long
CAD/JPY: Continues its long
NZD/JPY: Continues its long

Market start 3/11

A number of entry signals came up after the markets opened. Granted, I wasn't able to check in until an hour and a half after the markets opened.

In the end, I went with a long USD/JPY as CMS offers a 3 pip spread on it.

Entered USD/JPY long 118.39, with my stop set at 116.34 (risk of $173.22 on full reversal).

Summary of the rest of the forex by way of my system (skipping EUR/CHF):

EUR/USD: Looks like a weak downtrend for now.
USD/JPY: CMO, TSI, and TCF all indicated a long entry sometime after market open.
GBP/USD: CMO continues up from -50 and the TSI has gone horizontal (indicating shorts should be offset). I think the long signal will come sometime tomorrow. Maybe in the evening.
USD/CHF: Uptrend continues from 3/7. Mixed signals on how strong.
EUR/JPY: CMO hit the -50 line and the TSI went horizontal on 3/7. The CMO hit the zero line sometime after market open today but neither the TSI or TCF has yet confirmed the long signal. Unless the price does something real strange, I think a long signal should come through by the morning.
GBP/JPY: Was acting like EUR/JPY through today. The main difference is that the TSI is giving a long signal and the CMO hasn't yet hit the zero line. I think the long signal will come by morning.
EUR/GBP: Not sure what to think on this one. TSI is very weak with no gap between it and its signal line. The TCF's gap is narrowing as well. However, the CMO has slowed its decent to the zero line.
USD/CAD: The CMO has hit the zero line but neither TSI nor TCF has indicated a short. The short will probably show itself sometime tomorrow .
AUD/USD: Hmm, I think the long will come sooner than mid week.
EUR/CAD: Continues its downtrend
EUR/AUD: All signals point to enter short.
GBP/CHF: TSI and TCF indicate long entry. But, CMO hasn't hit the zero line yet (but is very close).
CHF/JPY: Only TCF is indicating a long at this time. I think a long signal will come through by morning.
AUD/CAD: Is still futzing. I'm starting to think this should be on my "stay away from" list.
AUD/JPY: All indicators say enter long
NZD/USD: CMO has hit the zero line, but neither TSI or TCF confirms the long yet. Long signal will probably come by morning
CAD/JPY: All indicators say enter long
NZD/JPY: All indicators say enter long

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF is a bit funny with my system.

Short signals aren't trustworthy and long exit signals can be weak.

No.

Looking more closely at how my system works with EUR/CHF, shorts are indicated in the wrong spots and while some long signals do work, around half do not.

I won't trade EUR/CHF with my system

What's the next trade?

Hmmm...

Off of the day charts:

EUR/USD indicated a short should be entered on 3/5. While the price looks to be moving in a channel, the TSI is indicating that it's short and the TCF started to indicate a stronger downtrend on 3/8. A missed boat?

USD/JPY gave an exit short signal on 3/7. The TSI and CMO are a hair away from showing a long signal. However, I've seen the price jump away in the other direction. This may give a long signal on Monday.

GBP/USD is on a short run. The CMO hit -50 today (3/9) but the TSI is not quite horizontal. Not at all sure if that is a valid exit short sign.

USD/CHF I think I missed the boat on this one. A short exit showed up on 3/5 and all indicators showed long on 3/8

EUR/CHF I may enter long on this one. A short exit showed up on 3/7, CMO hit the zero line on 3/8, and both TSI and TCF indicated a long early 3/9. I think EUR/CHF's action might trail USD/CHF's a bit.

EUR/GBP this is one of the charts that made me think I should have stayed with USD/CAD. It is still on an uptrend from 2/6. It's CMO has hit the 50 line twice since then (2/20 and 3/7) with the TSI going horizontal on 2/20and 3/8. Of note: on 2/20 the TSI line was above 25. Does this mean that the CMO hitting 50 (on a long) and horizontal TSI that is above 25 indicates that the position should *not* be exited? Regardless, I'm not sure if EUR/GBP is continuing its uptrend or not. I'll reassess once the CMO hits the zero line.

USD/CAD Maybe short in a day or two.

AUD/USD indicated that shorts should be exited on 3/8. Long signal looks like it may come mid week.

EUR/CAD indicated that longs should be exited on 3/5. A short signal came up on 3/8 (close of 1.5492). This one is a bit of a dilemma, recently the price action has not been significant. Considering that the price is now down to 1.5369, the down trend might be anywhere between a third to halfway over. That and the CMO journey above 50 was a short one. I don't think entering a short now would be all that good. I'll call this one a "missed boat".

EUR/AUD indicated that longs should be exited on 3/7. Maybe short in a day or two.

CHF/JPY indicated that shorts should be exited on 3/7. No clear indication of when a long signal will be coming up.

AUD/CAD is futzing around with no clear indication of direction.

EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, AUD/JPY, NZD/USD, CAD/JPY, NZD/USD indicated that shorts should be exited on 3/7. Maybe long in a day or two.

Testing my FOREX system

As mentioned before, I've just recently put together this simplified system.

I entered into a long USD/CAD on 2/28 before I finialized version 0.1 of my system. My current system indicated that I should have entered long on 2/26 (1.1606 close).

Ehh

So, I entered long USD/CAD at 1.1681 with a trailing stop of 1.1546 (potential loss of $135 on a full reversal). Moved the stop to 1.1539 on 3/2, 1.1562 on 3/5, 1.1617 on 3/6, and 1.1621 on 3/8.

Note: on the forex day charts a new "day" starts at 5pm. For example, at 5pm on 3/5 the 3/6 period starts.

The CMO indicates I should think about offsetting my position now (1.1781 as of this writing) as it has come back down to touch 50. But, the TSI (decent gap and still moving upward) and TCF (still at a very large gap but starting to move inward) indicate the trend is still stong.

Waiting for 5pm to see how things lie.

Update:

After 5pm and have moved my stop to 1.1643

CMO, TSI, and TCF are pretty much the same from this morning.

Update 3/9, morning:

Here is a good test of my system. Or, rather, a chance to fine tune.

TSI has gone horizontal. So, two indicators to exit my position.

However, in the past, CAD/USD's TSI has gone horizontal but maintained a decent gap. Along with the TCF's very large (though shrinking) gap, this long trend may just be consolidating. Something that strengthens this line of thought is that the TSI's signal line is still pointing up.

To hedge my bet I've moved my stop up to my entry price of 1.1681.

That may or may not be foolish. Because, if the trend is continuing and there is a drawdown, I'll be knocked out. Also, if the price is reversing, I've lost the profit my signal just told me to take.

Question: Is it better to take profits when there are signs of a reversal? Or, seek to try to ride the whole trend?

In the first case, some profit will be lost on leaving the trend early. In the second, there may be no profit and even a loss when early signs of a trend's reversal are ignored.

Update 3/9, weekend market close:

Ahh, a TSI signal line that continues up is not a sign that the long is continuing. The TSI has turned down while its signal line continues up. Considering the CMO is nearing the zero line I'd say a short signal will be showing itself on Monday or Tuesday.

So, moral of this story: If I'm holding a long and the CMO hits the 50 line from above and the TSI goes horizontal, offset the position.

It looks like the horizontal TSI holds true on shorts as well.

Anyhow, I've offset my position at market halt (1.1722) giving a $34.96 profit.

Weird

No more DOMS, which is a good thing.

However, I'm still breathing real hard so haven't upped either the squats or push ups.

One thing I changed was the rests on the squats. I thought it would be hard to add more squats with how I set up my rests. So, I changed the rests to match the pushups where I do all reps and rest after.

So, now I'm doing: 4 squats at the top of the minute and 5 push ups at the thirty second mark.

I had anticipated that this would be harder.... it was not.

Weird.

I've also seen little fat loss with the guggulsterone. I've read it could take a month to see anything, but I'm at three weeks with little to show.

Normally I avoid the named suppliments as they are pricy with little return. But, in poking around I found something called Hot Roxx Extreme. After some more hunting around for a good price I found $29 a bottle with shipping. I picked up two bottles and will see what's what. If I get little to nothing, I'll just stick with the CLA.

In order to ramp up a bit and get ready for the Hot Roxx I upped my dose of the guggulsterone to two in the morning, 2 at noon, and one at 5. I've been doing that for a week and still nothing to show. So, I'd say guggul by itself isn't all that great.

Playing with the FOREX

I'm currently trying a few things with CMS Forex's practice account.

A few years ago I developed a trading system as a C++ exercise which I then ported to Python.

The problem with that system was that it tied money up for months at a time (3-9) and while it was in the black, the return was minimal considering how long the money was tied up.

Well, let me rephrase that... with the amount of capital risk that I was willing to tolerate, the return was minimal.

It's been my experience that even with careful paper trading, there are still confounding variables. So, I see paper trading and "practice accounts" as only indicators that a system *might* work. Because of that, I keep my risk very small until my system proves itself out in the live environment.

It is also prudent to work with dealers that offer practice accounts that act just like real accounts. It is better to lose fake money when learning the software than real.

CMS's software is very easy to learn, but it is easy to make incorrect assumptions. For example, I tried moving a few stops by dragging and dropping thinking the software would set the price to where I dropped it. It did not and it lost me over 50%.

So, again, play with the practice account for a while to make sure you understand the software.

CMS offers many indicators as well as trading systems that will automatically attach to the chart.

Personally, I like to try to keep things simple as the more complex systems get the more they tend to be specialized to certain market activity. As this time around I'm not willing to invest the time in creating a huge trading system from scratch, I'm looking to find a few indicators that will give entry and exit signals with an emphasis on keeping losers small. Yes, I like big winners, but what's the point of big winners if the losers eat all the profit? Better several small winners (to offset the losers) and a handful of big winners.

At present I'm using the following indicators with my CMS practice account:

• Trailing Stops - Volatility (TS) with a 2 ATR lookback, 3 ATR multiplier, and a 8 period lookback
• True Strength Index (TSI) based on close, 20 smoothing periods, 13 double smoothing periods, and 7 signal line periods
• Trend Continuation Factor (TCF) based on close and 7 periods
• Chande's Momentum Oscillator (CMO) based on close and 7 periods

My findings at present using the full day charts:

• Be very wary of entry signals when the CMO is not coming down from 50 for shorts or coming up from -50 for longs. From what I've seen, when it is bouncing around in between 50 and -50, it is a sign of a continuing trend that may or may not be ending soon
• Generally, a good strong entry signal follows this course (example of a long signal):

1. The CMO comes up from -50 (possible short exit signal)
2. The TSI turns horizontal (followed by #1, this is a stronger short exit signal). Should this be accompanied by a narrowing of the gap between the TSI and its signal line, this is a very strong indicator that a long signal is coming (and that you should exit a short now)
3. Once #1 and #2 have happened, if at least two of the following happen, enter long (and exit your short if you haven't already): a) TMI crosses its signal line, b) TCF plus line crosses its minus line, and c) CMO is >= zero
   

A short signal is similar to the long except #1 would be coming down from 50 and #3 would be reverced.

• On entry, the trailing stop is set to the TS of the previous period (i.e. on EUR/USD, if I entered long today 3/3, I'd set the stop to the long TS of 3/2, 1.3046)
• Going forward on a position, trailing stops are moved to the TS of the previous period. But never to a position of greater loss (or less gain).
  
• If, after entering, you find the TS indicating (for at least two periods) that your stops should be placed at a greater loss (or less gain) than where they are currently placed, look to offset that position (**not true in every case... but is a very negative sign)
  
• Keep in mind that the CMO should not be the sole determining factor on exiting a position. If it crosses the 50/-50 line look at what the TSI and TCF are doing. If they aren't signaling a reversal, ignore the CMO.
• Large gaps in the TCF plus and minus lines and especially in the TSI and its signal line are good indicators of a strong trend
• While the CMO and TCF might indicate an entry signal or change in direction before the TSI, the TSI is more reliable as to which way the trend it going. So, if both the CMO and TCF indicate a long entry but the TSI keeps showing a short (signal line above the TSI) for 2-3 periods after entering a long position, get out.
  

I'm presently confirming how well the above holds up. Trades look to have a lifespan of anywhere from a week to 3-4 months on very strong trends.

Should I confirm the above, I will enter the market with $200-$500 to confirm if what I found in the practice account holds true. If so, I'll beef up the account.

Another thing I'll be looking into is adding to my position on long running trends.

Current Assessment

Yesterday's workout was aborted due to crazy soreness in my thighs.

Spent the day trying to determine if I hurt myself or if I was just suffering heavy DOMS due to complete and total sloth.

Well, didn't feel the sharp, deep pain that comes from injury. So, DOMS.

What I did this morning seemed to work well.

In a given minute, for twenty minutes I did the following:
A body weight squat, followed by a ten second rest four times, followed by 2 girl push ups. No rest between push ups, but I did rest for the rest of the minute.

Doing things this way allowed for 40 girl push ups and 80 body weight squats over 20 minutes.

The squats didn't have me breathing as hard with this pause and the push ups were ridiculously easy this way.

I'll add another push up per minute tomorrow, but I'm not going to mess with the squats until #1 the DOMS are manageable and #2 I'm not breathing as hard.


Update:
As of Friday my DOMS were down to just a mild soreness

I'm not going to mess with my squats for the time being, but I've upped my my push ups to 4 a minute. I will start jumping that higher next week.

Hunger

Got a bit squirrelly and decided to start doing the body weight squats.

Worked nicely for a five minute block with a five second rest between.

Got my wind up but was doable.

More to the point: FAR more satisfying than jumping jacks.

Need to figure out something to help my pushups along... not really sure.

Might try for a pathetic old man version of a squat thrust.

Considering that my lower body is ramping up faster, I might try the following for tomorrow morning:

Four body weight squats followed by two girl pushups for twenty minutes. Five second pause between each of them.

Might need to bump the rest time... not sure. I was breathing pretty dang hard this morning.

Rebuilding

Held off on posting just because of how embarrassed I am over how much I've let myself go.

Something I found that hampered me when lifting weights regularity was that once I started squatting 360 and deadlifting 400 that my coordination started to go when all the little stabilizer muscles tired. I tried methods that I read that the Olympic lifters used - many many doubles or triples with 70% max weight with a short rest (0.5 - 1.5 minutes) between sets. That did wonders on how fast I recovered from any given set... but did little for the little stabilizer muscles.

At around the end of 2005 I had thought of adding some calisthenics into the mix because I've read that body weight exercise can be taken to complete muscle failure over and over with little strain on the nervous system. That was important to me because the high set routine I was doing five days a week took my CNS to the edge. I was finding that if I pushed just a little too hard, I'd be suffering from cold-like symptoms the next day.

All this came to a crashing stop when my allergies and sleep apnea caught up with me at the beginning of 2006. I found that once I started to breathe hard, it was like small balloons were inflating in my ears. After a few minutes the pressure would lead to dizziness and I had to stop.

So, to rebuild I'm going with calisthenics at first.

This was and is incredibly humbling. I found that I had to start with marching in place, bringing my knees high for twenty minutes.

Over the past few weeks I've been able to replace the marching with paused jumping-jacks (hands/legs out = one jump, hands/legs in = one jump). I started with three seconds between jumps and as of today am down to two seconds between jumps for two blocks of five minutes.

The worse blow to my pride are the push ups. At present I'm able to do two blocks of three minutes of girl push ups (i.e. knees kept down) with a five second rest between each full stroke.

Short to midterm goals -
1) Get the jumping jacks down to no pauses between jumps for the two 5 minute blocks
2) Work up to five minutes of five second pause girl push ups and then begin to shorten the pause.

Mid to longterm goals -
1) After eliminating the pause on the jumping jacks and becoming comfortable with that work load, change the blocks to full-range bodyweight squats with a five second pause at first. With the rest pause shortening when I'm able
2) Once I can do two five minute blocks of girl push ups with 0-1 second rest pauses, I'll begin to elevate my knees (put something under them) to work towards proper push ups.

As I'm not fit enough to burn a decent amount of calories I'm trying out a few supplements..

500mg Hoodia x1 a day
500mg (50mg active guggulesterones) Guggul x3 day
2g (1.4g CLA) CLA suppliment x3 day

Hoodia - I'm using "Hoodia 500" from hoodiahealth.com. It does suppress my appetite a little, but not enough to justify the cost. Also, during the day I eat only what I've packed for myself. I go somewhat nuts after hours. This I can halt by drinking more water and will do so.

Guggul - I'm using "Extra Strength Guggulsterone" from Higher Power Nutrition. The main thing that I'm looking for is 34-84mg of guggulesterones three times a day (this is what I've read to be an effective range). So, I needed to shop around to find a brand that had a decent % of guggulesterones per dose and that a monthly supply was under $20. They are out there... just not so easy to find. When I first used this product I felt warm and a little anxious. After a while I found that if I drank enough water I didn't get overheated or anxious. So, I make sure I have a lot of water around all day. As this acts by stimulating the thyroid I'm not keen on pushing my dose to the 84mg x3/day mark. Especially as it has been suggested that a person should ween themselves off of guggul instead of stopping all together. Summary: I know it is doing "something", especially if I don't drink enough water, but is it helping me drop fat quicker? I don't know yet.

CLA - I'm using "CLA-1000" from Wellments.From what I've read, 3.4 grams a day of CLA are needed to see fat loss affects. As most supplement makers aim for around 70%, look for the bigger pills (or drink a half gallon of full fat milk a day). I don't feel anything from taking these, but I don't expect to based on what I've read. This makes it kind of hard to determine if the cost is worth it. But, in my research, it looks like CLA is a pretty good thing to be taking anyhow.

Tax Stuff

Getting about that time again.

Wanted to bring up Enrolled Agents. From the NAEA's website:

An Enrolled Agent (EA) is a federally-authorized tax practitioner who has technical expertise in the field of taxation and who is empowered by the U.S. Department of the Treasury to represent taxpayers before all administrative levels of the Internal Revenue Service for audits, collections, and appeals.

Around 2002, my wife and I began to worry about IRS audits.

We had began to try to educate ourselves on tax issues and in the process found a few worrisome issues. In putting together that year's taxes I found a few discrepancies in an old filing and requested a W-2 from an agency I worked with in the late nineties. They weren't able to produce this (they had been playing games with the books). Also, around that time my wife was doing freelance editing work with an individual who wasn't all that .... umm ... meticulous with his paperwork.

This was missed and/or not brought up by the various tax preparation agencies we used in the past.

So, we tried a CPA.... after not communicating for several months nor giving updates as to work done, we dropped him.

As our stress increased, we came across info on Enrolled Agents. From the NAEA's site we went to their "find an agent" link and found our "Tax Lady".

She went through six years of returns and amended them. Only one year did we pay out ... and that was state taxes.

She was able to work up significant returns over her rate for the five years of returns she amended.

So, in summary:

1) Yes, you will pay more up front for an EA. But, in my experience, your return will be greater.
2) For an EA to keep their license, they have to re-qualify every three years. Of note: the NAEA has additional professional education requirements for its members.
3) They are "authorized to appear in the place of the taxpayer at the IRS".

I live yet

Getting old sucks.

Throughout 2006 I found my health spiraling downward.

Found out I'm severely allergic to a number of things (dust, trees, grass, weeds, etc) and only recently that my allergies developed over the five years I lived up in the Virginia mountains.

In the process of trying to figure out where my fatigue, dizziness, and pressure headaches where coming from it was determined that I should submit to a sleep study.

Well, turns out I have sleep apnea as well. The study found that I had an average of seventy (70) events (read - stopped breathing) an hour. I stopped breathing, on average, more than once a minute.

Quoth the sleep study tech: "yeah, that'd cause headaches and fatigue"

heh

Well, they had me get a cpap and I can not describe the quality of sleep I get now. I have never, ever, slept this well.

So, I'm starting to feel human again. My wife tells me I'm not such a lump anymore (heh).

Now, to deal with the consequences of no physical activity for a year.

It has taken its toll... a 42"+ waist from 35 inches... near 300lbs from 256lbs.

sigh

Anyhow, I think I'll put together some useful posts tonight and over the next few days.

Pearl Harbor

0755AM, December 7, 1941

And more memories fade away

Assessment

I'm using sharebuilder for my IRA and my test of a ETF version of one of the coffeehouse invester set ups.

I heard of sharebuilder from my wife about the time I needed to roll my old 401K into something. Poking around a bit and I decided to give it a try. I used its PortfolioBuilder.

It suggested the following for me:

WD RUSSELL 1000 VALUE 45%
IWF RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH 30%
EFA EURO-ASIA INDX 15%
AGG LEHMAN AGG BOND FUND 5%
TIP LEH US TREAS INF FD 5%

My return for the past year is a wee bit over 10%

The ETF version of the coffeehouse invester set up didn't do so well in my taxable account.

AGG LEHMAN AGG BOND FUND 40%
VNQ VANGUARD REIT ETF 10%
VTV VANGUARD VALUE ETF 10%
EFA EURO-ASIA INDX 10%
RSP S&P EQUAL WEIGHT INDEX 10%
VBR VANGUARD SMALL-CAP VALUE ETF 10%
VB VANGUARD SMALL-CAP ETF 10%

Return on that was a little over 6%.

Looking at things a bit more I thought to repoint my taxable account and get rid of the overlap with the IRA and focus on sectors. Specifically, equal ratio of the following: financial services, natural resources, utilities, real estate, and telecom.

ICF COHEN & STEERS REALTY
IDU UTILITIES INDX
IXG S&P GLBL FINL SECTOR
IXP ISHARES S&P GLBL TELECOMM SE
IYE ENERGY INDX
VAW VANGUARD MATERIALS ETF

Past data indicates this will return over 10%. If so, I will pursue it aggressively.


Future project --- some form of trading (stocks, commodities, forex, something) where fees and taxes don't eat up the majority of a given 3, 6, 9, or 12 months profit.

ETFs don't appear to lend themselves to short term trading and only forex (at this time) looks to allow investors to live test on the cheap.

Veterans Day

Been slacking as usual.

In observation of Veterans Day 2006:

Happy Veterans Day

Veteran's Day: "In the Eleventh Hour of the Eleventh Day of the Eleventh Month"

Yea Me Day!

Veteran's Day, 2006

Warfare Class

I'm Sitting Here on Veteran's Day

Veterans Day - Generations of Valor

Proud

Hangin’ Out With the Boys


Project Valour-IT

How To Support The Troops

RIP

Col. Jeff Cooper, RIP

On D-Day

D-Day Remembered

Memorial Day

On Memorial Day, remember the families of our fallen heroes

Gates of Fire

"I am going to die well"

Major Mathew Schram's Memorial Day

TSgt John A. Chapman

Video Tributes

We all lost a Brother Today

Letter From Canada

Chai Tea, Mud Huts, Villages With No Names and Heroes

Rafael Peralta - Home of the Brave

BAGHDAD ER

The Notification

Godspeed Kyle Jackson and Mitch Carver

Final Salute


I often think to myself, how is it that I can enjoy a life here in the US where I don't have to bribe officials to get ahead? Where any US citizen can get ahead in life if they are determined and apply themselves. Where any US citizen is free to move to a different town or state in order to find a favorable spot to put down roots. And how is it that the US doesn't turn into another Zimbabwe?

How To Support The Troops
Some Ways To Support Servicemembers

HA!

HAHA!!!